Kill the cottage

Author: Liu Jiaolian

This year's Spring Festival did not repeat the bullish market of the 2021 Spring Festival "breaking 5 on the fifth day" (Note: breaking 5 means breaking the historical high of 50,000 US dollars). Instead, it fell three times in a row on the fourth, fifth and sixth days of the first lunar month, from 105k all the way to the lowest level close to 90k, with the maximum drop of nearly 15%.

This unexpectedly broke the defense of many people who were looking forward to the so-called Spring Festival market. For example, in the 1.24 Teaching Chain Internal Reference "The Spring Festival is Coming", a research institute proposed that "BTC has achieved positive returns during the Spring Festival in 11 of the past 12 years, and the statistically impressive 83% hit rate proves the gains during this period."

Then, as expected and unexpected, this year's Spring Festival obviously fell into the other 17%.

The 2.2 Teaching Chain Internal Reference "The 4th Week of 2025" written by Teaching Chain on the road yesterday, which is "The Fed Waits and Sees Changes This Cycle is Familiar", has summarized the macroeconomic situation at the beginning of the Spring Festival in the past week. In fact, seeing that the Federal Reserve is not hesitating to take a confrontational stance with the White House to express its toughness, you should have a vague foreboding and don't have too much expectation for "continue to play music and continue to dance".

In fact, if you look at the market, BTC's current pin test of 90,000 dollars was penetrated twice on December 6, 2024 last year and January 13, 2025 this year.

This position is the lower support of a new high level after the violent pull since late November 2024. 90k-110k constitutes a new level of sideways fluctuations.

New heights, new levels, and new normals are significantly higher than the 2021 bull top and the 60,000-70,000 dollars after March 2024.

The shorts have inserted pins three times, either the three times are not enough, and the bulls are killed, opening a new market; or they defeat the bulls, kill this new level, and kill back to the old battle line of 70,000 dollars.

However, BTC has not fallen down the steps, but just stumbled, and it has brought the market to a half-death. The copycat dogs fell to the street one after another, and died in large numbers.

Some of Jiaolian’s copycat positions that had just turned losses into profits have fallen back into the mud again.

Just hold on, what else can you do?

Do you cut your positions and exchange for BTC at this time? It must be too late.

Don’t think about repairing the roof when the house is leaking during a storm.

What did you do when the sun was shining?

When Jiaolian was on the road, he thought of a question, that is, people often say that failure is the mother of success, but why is failure the mother of success?

From an empirical point of view, scientific research shows that in terms of entrepreneurial success rate, people who have succeeded before are obviously more likely to succeed again.

In the secondary market, you will also see many people gambling year after year and day after day, either speculating in contracts or speculating in memes, but they just go from one failure to another. Even if they occasionally make a small profit, they will soon lose it all again. The final outcome is basically that they lose all their underwear completely and can never turn over again. They are forced to quit and disappear from this market completely.

Jiaolian suddenly seems to have figured it out. The key to success from failure lies in oneself. It lies in whether one can learn lessons from failure, reflect and introspect, not beat one's chest and stamp one's feet, not be annoyed and regretful, but calmly transform failure into correction and improvement of one's existing wrong cognition, and have more courage and strength to put the corrected and improved cognition into continued practice for testing.

So there is a good saying: If you fail in your actions, look for the reasons in yourself.

From a psychological point of view, it is difficult for people to listen to the advice of others. From a practical point of view, you should not trust anyone. Many times, you must have a strong opinion and the courage to go forward even if there are thousands of people against you in order to achieve great things.

But this will bring a problem, that is, it is impossible to make cognitive corrections and improve the closed loop. The end of being self-satisfied and self-centered is failure.

The closed loop can only be learned through practice, learning from practice, and learning from failure.

As the proverb goes, you will not turn back until you hit the south wall. In fact, people who know to turn around or take a detour after hitting the south wall only once may already be a dragon among men.

So the saying goes, people can never teach people; things can teach people, and they will learn it once they are taught.

In fact, Jiaolian says that things can never teach people, and most people can never learn. Only when you turn yourself into a person who actively learns, can you learn it once, and turn every failure into a stepping stone to your success.