Market volatility? A game of strategy for the fate of the US dollar?

Author: K2 Kai; Source: X, @kaikaibtc

These past few months, I've seen some questions: "Why does the market look so strange right now? There's a constant stream of positive news, but the market is acting like it's being paralyzed by a ghost."

If you only stare at the candlestick chart, you won't understand what's happening. These past few days I've been reviewing this highly valuable macroeconomic analysis, and after reading it, I understand that this isn't just "market fluctuation," nor is it a simple "battle between bulls and bears."

This is the largest "tectonic shift" in the global monetary system since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

To help everyone understand this battle of titans, I've broken down the complex financial jargon and will explain the three levels of this ongoing war.

The First Layer of the Game: The Rupture of the Two “Dollars” Previously, we believed that the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Treasury, and Wall Street giants (such as JPMorgan Chase) were all in cahoots. But today, this alliance has broken down. The United States is now splitting into two camps: The Old Order (Conservatives): Centered around the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase. Their Interests: They live off debt and collect tolls as “dollar intermediaries.” They want the dollar to continue as a debt instrument, and all money must pass through the banking system. The New Order (Reformers): Centered around the U.S. Treasury (the Trump administration) and stablecoins/Bitcoin. **Key Interests:** They realized that US Treasury bonds were no longer selling and a change in strategy was necessary. They wanted to use stablecoins (digital dollars) to bypass banks and directly inject liquidity into the global market, while using Bitcoin as a hard asset to back the fragile dollar. In short, the old guard wanted to preserve the banks' privileges, while the new guard wanted to use cryptocurrencies to reshape the dollar's hegemony. This is why we see such a split in policy. **Second Layer of Game: JPMorgan Chase's "Patriotic War"** A startling detail: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is aggressively shorting MicroStrategy ($MSTR). Why? Because MSTR is not an ordinary software company; it's a "vulnerability." MSTR's strategy is: borrow fiat currency (debt) - buy Bitcoin (hard asset). It continuously converts the fiat currency that Wall Street is so proud of into Bitcoin. For traditional banks like JPMorgan Chase, this is fatal. If everyone uses stablecoins for settlement and Bitcoin for reserves in the future, who will need commercial banks? Who will still deposit money with JPM? Therefore, JPM's recent "custody delays" and joint short-selling with institutions are not for profit, but to *plug loopholes*. They are maintaining the old financial defenses; this is a battle for survival. The Third Layer of the Game: The "Darkest Hour" for the National Team This is the most counterintuitive and perplexing part: Since the Treasury Department/Trump's team is bullish on Bitcoin, why not just pump the price directly? What would happen if the US government announced tomorrow, "We will designate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve"? Bitcoin would instantly surge to $200,000, $500,000, or even $1 million (Gamma Squeeze). This would be good for retail investors, but a disaster for the national team, who haven't yet built up their positions. The cost is too high! So, the current scenario is: The old guard (JPM) is desperately suppressing the price, trying to prove that Bitcoin is a bubble. The new guard (Treasury) is tacitly approving this suppression. Why is it being tacitly approved? **Because they are using the pressure from their opponents to conduct "hidden accumulation."** They are waiting—waiting to control the voting rights of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by 2025; waiting for MSTR, this "conversion bridge," to be sufficiently stable; waiting to accumulate enough low-priced tokens.** This explains why, despite frequent positive news, the price of cryptocurrencies is stagnant: this is a national-level power manipulator controlling the market and weeding out speculators. The time window left for us: 2025-2028. Finally, the timeline is very tight. If Trump's team cannot complete the restructuring of the monetary system—that is, shifting from "debt-driven" to "asset-driven (BTC/gold)"—within this term (before 2028), then the dollar hegemony may truly collapse. Therefore, the next three years will not be a simple matter of ups and downs, but a life-or-death political and financial war. Understanding the above should clarify the current strategy: Don't be scared away by those "strange crashes." Every deep drop now is likely just a splash from a battle between giants, or a way to shake out weak hands. MSTR is not just a stock; it's a bellwether. It's a bridge from the old financial system to the new world; as long as it stands, the logic remains. This is a "civilizational" transition period. We are experiencing the biggest upheaval since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. In this battle, it's uncertain who will win and who will lose. But I believe that those who hold Bitcoin are the sole winners of this war.