Author: bitsCrunch Source: mirror
Recently, BTC has once again broken through the $70,000 mark, and the greed index in the market has once again reached 80, and Meme coins are often the horn of every bull market charge. For example, the price of $GOAT once rose by more than 10,000 times in 5 days. Through the analysis of the transaction data of the current market's TOP 25 Meme coins, we found several market characteristics and evolution trends worthy of attention.
In terms of the number of holders, the number of holders of SHIB, DOG, DOGE, MEME and DEGEN all exceeded 800,000 addresses, of which SHIB ranked first with 1.51 million addresses, about 400,000 addresses higher than the second place DOG. At the same time, these projects also occupy a relatively high trading volume in the overall market.
BONK and BRETT have more than 700,000 holding addresses, while PEPE, WIF and other projects have 320,000 and 180,000 holding addresses respectively. However, it is worth noting that the 30-day growth in the number of holding addresses of these two projects is 3.02% and 4.86% respectively, which exceeds the growth rate of all the previous Meme coins with the largest number of holders.
It is worth noting that according to bitsCrunch data, MEW and MIGGLES are the only two remaining Meme coins with more than 100,000 holding addresses, and MIGGLES has grown by 26.55% in the past 30 days. Tokens such as HIGHER, FLOKI, POPCAT, MOCHI, PONKE, MOODENG, and MYRO make up the projects with 50,000-100,000 holding addresses, but the liquidity is relatively limited.
The price of Meme coins is strongly correlated with social hot events. According to the buy-sell comparison index, we found that TRUMP's index is 1.66 and the price has risen by 15.9%. This is highly correlated with the recent US political election events.
SHIB and WIF have the largest trading volumes in the past 7 days, with \(70.2 billion\)67.3 billion respectively, ranking first, far exceeding the third and fourth places. By comparing trading volume and price fluctuations, it is found that the price fluctuations of projects with the highest trading volume (such as SHIB and DOGE) are relatively mild, while projects with smaller trading volume tend to have larger fluctuations.
It can be seen that large-cap Meme coins are gradually acquiring the attribute of "value storage", and investors are more inclined to hold them. Many investors have adopted the "buy on dips" strategy, and the head effect will be further strengthened. Small-cap Meme coins, on the other hand, play more of a speculative tool and are more speculative in the short term. Liquidity stratification will be more obvious, which may lead to intensified market polarization.
The address and price change ratios reflect the immediate changes in liquidity. According to bitsCrunch data, HIGHER and MOODENG have seen a short-term increase in liquidity of 2.32% and 1.98%, respectively. This abnormal influx of liquidity often indicates possible price fluctuations.
On the contrary, TURBO and PONKE experienced -0.31% and -0.13% liquidity outflows respectively. This slow but continuous liquidity outflow may indicate a gradual weakening of market confidence.
For investors, this means that they need to be more cautious in assessing the liquidity risk of projects, rather than just focusing on price fluctuations. In this rapidly evolving market, the importance of risk management may exceed the pursuit of returns.
The Meme tool ecological panorama presents the five core sectors of the entire industry: research tools, security checks, tracking systems, trading platforms, and issuance platforms.
From the current market data, authenticity verification and contract security assessment have become the primary link in investment decision-making. There are often two possibilities behind the rampant manipulation of the Meme coin trading market: one is that the project party attempts to get on the DEX Screener trend list by creating trading activity; the other is that robots are manipulating the market. Therefore, it is necessary to identify real community interactions before trading.
Through the contract analysis of the coin holding address of the Meme coin project, several risk issues were found, one is that the authority concentration is too high, the second is the lack of liquidity lock, and the third is that the coin holding address has a large number of overlaps.
Specifically, a core address has frequent interactions with multiple decentralized addresses. This pattern is particularly common in some emerging projects with abnormal 24-hour gains, often indicating the risk of centralized control. Secondly, it is necessary to monitor whether there are complex fund flows between multiple large holding addresses, which may be due to a large speculative group behind the scenes.
Therefore, for Meme coin novices, it is necessary to focus on the degree of decentralized holdings, which is usually more common in mature projects such as SHIB or PEPE. But it is worth noting that even for such projects, their TOP100 addresses still control the vast majority of the supply.
Generally speaking, a successful Meme coin project needs to be endorsed by at least 3-5 KOLs with more than 100,000 fans on average. But this indicator is changing.
At present, high number of fans is no longer a decisive factor. For example, although HIGHER has only received support from medium-sized KOLs, its ability to rise is stronger. This reflects the market's shift toward de-KOLization. The time distribution of KOL endorsements has an important impact on project trends. Projects that receive multiple KOL endorsements in a short period of time often perform worse than projects whose endorsements are scattered over different periods.
Based on the statistical analysis of successful cases, we have summarized the following key indicator system:
Trading volume indicator: The organic trading volume (excluding robot trading) of a robust project within 1 hour of launch should reach $500-1000. This number is lower than the $1000-2000 threshold generally considered by the industry, but we have found that a lower initial threshold is beneficial to the continued development of the project.
Market value threshold: $100,000 is a key psychological threshold. Data shows that 87% of successful projects only began to achieve substantial growth after breaking through this market value. But it is worth noting that this threshold varies in different tracks. For example, AI-themed Meme coins often require a higher starting market value.
Supply distribution: The proportion of the founding team's holdings is an important indicator. Statistics show that when the founding team's holdings are less than 5%, the survival rate of the project is significantly improved. This may be because lower team holdings reduce the risk of selling pressure and increase community confidence.
First, basic indicator monitoring. Real-time tracking of basic data such as trading volume, position distribution, price fluctuations, etc., and set abnormal fluctuation alarm thresholds.
Second, on-chain behavior analysis. Monitor the changes in large addresses, especially the interaction with known risk addresses. At the same time, track changes in the liquidity pool and warn of possible selling behavior. At the same time, establish a dynamic stop-loss system and set different stop-loss ratios according to the different development stages of the project.
Third, monitor social signals, establish a KOL database, and identify possible market manipulation signals. Pay special attention to abnormal activity on social media, pay attention to opportunities on new public chains, and diversify investment portfolios.
Based on a large amount of data and market observations, we hope to provide investors entering the Meme market with a comprehensive market overview and systematic analysis framework. However, it should be emphasized that this article does not constitute investment advice, and any framework needs to be continuously adjusted and improved according to market changes. Since Meme is a high-risk and high-return market model, you must pay attention to risk monitoring before trading.
Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital, a U.S. cryptocurrency mining company, said that Bitcoin mining is a national security issue. Russia has mined 54,000 bitcoins under U.S. sanctions, and the Putin government has received huge tax revenue.
AlexThe British government has submitted a bill to Parliament hoping to classify cryptocurrency assets as a new form of property, which could generate £34 billion in revenue each year.
MiyukiCryptoQuant analysis shows that Bitcoin's trend is decoupled from gold, investors seem to favor gold, and cryptocurrencies continue to be in a bearish phase.
WeiliangPope Francis addressed Singapore’s leaders, urging the nation to use its global position for peace and unity. He emphasized that while technological advancements like AI should promote human connection, they should not lead to isolation or diminish genuine relationships.
WeatherlyPeople familiar with the matter revealed that Hong Kong is studying whether to allow the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Customs to jointly participate in the supervision of over-the-counter virtual asset trading services.
AlexResidents near Granbury, Texas, are protesting Constellation Energy's plan to build a new power plant due to ongoing noise pollution and health issues from Marathon Digital’s nearby Bitcoin mine. The proposed power plant expansion would significantly increase air pollution, exacerbating local concerns about environmental and health impacts.
AnaisMeta is changing how it labels AI-edited content by moving the "AI info" label to a less visible spot, raising concerns that it may confuse users as AI tools become more advanced. Despite this, Meta will still prominently display labels for fully AI-generated content to ensure transparency.
JoyeToro will stop trading most cryptocurrencies for U.S. users as part of a $1.5 million settlement with the SEC. The platform will only offer Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ethereum in the U.S., while its global operations remain largely unaffected.
WeatherlyOpenAI has launched the o1 model, designed to improve reasoning and problem-solving in areas like math and coding. While more accurate than previous models, it comes at a higher cost and still lacks certain functionalities like web browsing and image processing.
JoyTaobao's English version has skyrocketed to the top of Singapore's App Store due to its advanced AI translation, improving accessibility for non-Chinese speakers. The app's new features include SGD price conversion and promotional offers, leading to a surge in user engagement and positive feedback.
Anais