Messari: ETF inflows at a glance: How they affect BTC and ETH prices

Author: Matthew Nay, Research Analyst at Messari Protocol Services; Compiler: 0xjs@黄金财经

The Bitcoin ETF has been effective since January 11, 2024, and the Ethereum ETF has been effective since July 23, 2024.

Let's take a look at the performance of inflows since then and compare it to the price action during these periods.

This week-to-date data refers to the week of August 16 to August 22.

Bitcoin ETFs continue to see positive flows.

However, Ethereum ETFs continue to see outflows. The good news is that most of the outflows occurred in the first seven days of trading.

• Grayscale's ETHE ETF saw outflows of nearly $2 billion as investors closed trades after the trust was converted into an ETF. In early January 2023, the trust's actual value was at a negative premium of 60%.

BTC ETF Inflows Vs. BTC Price Trends

When Bitcoin first broke through $60,000 in February, inflows reached $7.4 billion. Six months later, the price of Bitcoin has been hovering between $50,000 and $73,000.

• However, inflows continue, and many large institutions continue to increase their holdings. As of the second quarter, 60% of large hedge funds have disclosed Bitcoin ETF holdings. Millennium discloses holdings of over 27,000 BTC.

BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw the most inflows at $20.6 billion, with Fidelity’s FBTC coming in second at $9.8 billion.

• Since Grayscale transitioned from a trust to an ETF, they’ve seen $19.7 billion in outflows as investors move to ETFs with lower fees. Grayscale’s fees are 1.5%, while the next highest is 0.25%.

ETH ETF Inflows Vs. ETH Price Trends

On the other hand, the story of Ethereum ETFs are a completely different story.

There is controversy over whether L2 is good or bad for Ethereum, and rumors about Solana and Avalanche ETFs being approved in the United States are also starting to heat up. Brazil has already approved two Solana ETFs. Bloomberg's ETF analysts said the likelihood of more crypto ETFs being approved depends on whether there will be a leadership change in November this year. Currently, Polymarket has a 6% chance of the Solana ETF being approved in 2024.

The rest of this year is going to be crazy, now all we can do is buckle up and enjoy the ride!

Inflows are negative, and the price of Ethereum is down 24.7% since the ETF's inception.

• However, BlackRock continues to dominate the ETF market. They have already pumped $1 billion into ETHA, and if you exclude outflows from Grayscale products, Ethereum ETF inflows have reached $1.8 billion. At this point the crypto community is divided on the future of Ethereum as the dominant smart contract platform.