Headline
▌Analysis: MicroStrategy is overvalued, but the stock price may continue to rise
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, pointed out in the report that MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares climbed to $190 for the first time since the end of March, closing up 5.5%. As the largest Bitcoin listed company, MicroStrategy holds nearly $16 billion in Bitcoin assets. Thielen mentioned that if the stock price exceeds $180, hedge funds holding $4.6 billion in short positions may face pressure to cover their positions. In addition, strong bond demand may prompt MicroStrategy to raise more funds to buy Bitcoin. He said that the strategy of borrowing money to buy coins is reasonable, and the rise in stock prices may form a positive feedback loop, further pushing up Bitcoin prices.
▌FTX 2.0 restart rumors fall through, investors lack interest
Although there were rumors that FTX 2.0 might be restarted, the plan was eventually ruled out. FTX CEO John J. Ray III said in June 2022 that the company had begun soliciting parties interested in restarting the FTX.com exchange and possibly rebranding it. However, FTX lawyer Andrew Dietderich told the judge at a hearing in January 2024 that he had failed to find investors willing to invest, and the restart plan was shelved.
Market
As of press time, according to Coingecko data:
BTC's latest transaction price is $62,306.04, with a daily increase or decrease of -0.7%;
ETH's latest transaction price is $2,428.96, with a daily increase or decrease of -0.6%;
BNB's latest transaction price is $565.56, with a daily increase or decrease of -0.8%;
SOL's latest transaction price is $144.31, with a daily increase or decrease of -1.4%；
DOGE's latest transaction price is 0.1088 yuan, with a daily increase or decrease of -2.3%；
XPR's latest transaction price is 0.5308 US dollars, with a daily increase or decrease of -0.6%。
Policy
▌US SEC warns of the risks of cryptocurrency and emerging technology investment scams
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sounded the alarm on the growing risks of cryptocurrency fraud and other investment fraud during World Investor Week 2024. Investors are struggling to find reliable advice amid the rising influence of artificial intelligence, social media and aggressive financial marketing. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is focusing on scams involving cryptocurrencies, financial inducements and "relationship" scams, warning that the hype around emerging technologies could mislead unsuspecting individuals.
▌If Trump wins the election, Robinhood General Counsel may become the new U.S. SEC chairman
Robinhood General Counsel Dan Gallagher is seen as a possible nominee for the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) if Trump is successfully re-elected. However, the SEC is currently considering a lawsuit against Robinhood's growing cryptocurrency business, alleging that it may not be registered as a broker and clearing agency in the crypto market. Gallagher objected to this, calling the case "meaningless." He pointed out that Robinhood has far fewer crypto transactions than other platforms and does not offer crypto lending or staking products. If elected, Gallagher may face a controversial confirmation process because Democrats have long been wary of industry officials serving as federal regulators.
▌U.S. Judge Orders Google to Open App Store to Increase Competition
A U.S. judge has ruled that Google parent Alphabet Inc. must lift restrictions to allow developers to build marketplaces competing with its Google Play Store, a move that would upend Google’s dominance of the lucrative Android app market. A federal judge in San Francisco on Monday ruled in favor of Epic Games Inc. in its long-running antitrust lawsuit against Google’s app store.
Google Inc. said it will appeal the ruling in the Epic Games antitrust case; it will ask the court to suspend the implementation of the Oct. 7 injunction.
Blockchain Applications
▌Layer3 Expands to Solana, Supports L3 Staking via Wormhole
Distribution, Identity, and Incentive Infrastructure Layer3 announced that it has expanded to the Solana network, aiming to create a consumer distribution layer for the Solana protocol, powered by L3 tokens natively available on Solana via Wormhole.
The expansion brings several new features, including optional token migration through Wormhole & Portal, new leaderboards, rewards, user progression and community structures, and L3 staking on Solana through Wormhole.
▌Immunefi: Ethereum Remains the Blockchain of Choice for White Hat Hackers
According to Immunefi’s 2024 report, Ethereum remains the blockchain of choice for white hat hackers, but its popularity has declined. Meanwhile, Polygon, Arbitrum and Optimism are gaining attention. 63% of respondents see white hat hacking as their main job, up from 56% in 2023.
Cryptocurrency
▌JPMorgan: The crypto market will be affected by several key factors in the coming months
JPMorgan analysts pointed out that the crypto market will be affected by several key factors in the coming months, including seasonal "Uptober" trends, the Fed's rate cuts, and Ethereum's "Pectra" upgrade. They mentioned that historical data shows that more than 70% of "Uptober" months have positive Bitcoin returns, which may have a positive impact on market behavior. Although the Fed's rate cuts have not yet significantly boosted the crypto market, analysts believe that the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic factors remains high and requires clearer catalysts to achieve continued growth. In addition, the approval of Bitcoin ETF options may also deepen market liquidity and attract more investors.
▌More than 87% of new DEX tokens issued since the beginning of the year are based on the Solana blockchain
According to data from The Block, as of September 30 this year, Solana accounted for 96,010 of the 110,180 new tokens issued on all tracking chains, accounting for more than 87% of all new tokens appearing on DEX. The number of new tokens on the Solana blockchain soared from near zero at the beginning of 2024 to more than 100,000 per month in the middle of the year. Although Solana is in the lead, Base has also performed well. Since April, the two chains have accounted for more than 80% of new token issuance.
▌US judge approves FTX bankruptcy reorganization plan, creditors are about to receive compensation
A US bankruptcy judge formally approved FTX's bankruptcy reorganization plan, marking the start of the compensation process two years after the exchange's collapse. About 94% of creditors support the plan, and 98% of creditors will receive at least 118% of the compensation amount. Although some creditors expressed dissatisfaction with the failure to pay the original value of the cryptocurrency, the court still decided to settle in cash. The judge also ruled that FTX's native token FTT is worth zero.
Important Economic Dynamics
▌Fed Kashkari: The labor market still looks strong
Fed Kashkari said that the labor market still looks strong and hopes to maintain it; confidence in the return of inflation to the target of 2% is very high.
▌Fed Mousalem: Given the economic outlook, further rate cuts are possible
Fed Mousalem said that given the economic outlook, further rate cuts are possible; support the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points last month; the Fed needs to maintain policy patience; inflationary pressure is expected to continue to ease; employment and inflation are in "good shape".
▌The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in November is 86.3%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates has risen to 13.7%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 86.3%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 13.7%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 78.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 8.9%; the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 0%.
Golden Encyclopedia
▌What is Rollups
Rollup is a way of processing transactions on the Layer 2 protocol, which can free up valuable space on the base layer. Rollup folds transactions one by one on the second layer, sometimes dozens of times, and then rolls them together before sending the data back to Layer 1. There are two main types of Rollup, optimistic and zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs.
Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish correct investment concepts and be sure to increase risk awareness.
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