Mt.Gox fund transfer clues tracking and market interpretation

Source: iChainfo

On July 22, the Mt.Gox wallet address changed again. The Mt.Gox address 1JJ8oBaqcuLUcCkLwaVqdvJJpERYKwukJz transferred 0.000017 BTC to four wallets belonging to Bitstamp respectively.

Figure 1: Analysis of Mt.Gox fund transfer on July 22

Last week, the much-watched compensation work of the Mt.Gox exchange has been launched. Mt.Gox has transferred bitcoins to Kraken, BitBank and SBI VC Trade. Among all the five exchanges that can handle compensation, only Bitstamp and Bitgo have not received bitcoins. Today's operation may mean that Mt.Gox will transfer funds to the last two exchanges.

search.ichainfo.com tracked and analyzed the outflow of funds from the Mt.Gox exchange. Through the analysis of the fund flow, it was found that the funds in the Mt.Gox wallet mainly flowed into six addresses, and the subsequent fund changes of four of them require investors to pay special attention.

The core address we analyzed is 1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6, which is the early collection address of the Mt.Gox exchange funds. On May 28 this year, 141,619 bitcoins were collected in this address through 8 transactions.

Figure 2: Mt.Gox fund analysis chart, source: search.ichainfo.com

Figure 3: There is no bitcoin in the address 1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6, source: search.ichainfo.com

Among these destinations, search.ichainfo.com found that Mt.Gox's funds mainly flowed into the following six addresses

34X3kp5PTrqR9dA9Zf9XwivpE6tnNJdHKB is the hot wallet address of SBI VC Trade, with a total of 1,157 BTC transferred in.

18vjnBHWAxU4CPGPqF7Gp9JyqdVBHDct9b is the cold wallet address of Mt.Gox, currently holding 42,587 BTC. The transfer of funds from this address needs to be closely monitored.

1AsHPP7WcGnDLzxW2bUa2FcbJP3eZVEqpx is the Mt.Gox cold wallet address, currently holding 47,228 BTC. The transfer of funds from this address needs to be closely monitored.

1HRAprcXCzx1YqYv7dcCcDzf3vYVGPv3b2 is the Mt.Gox cold wallet address, currently holding 526 BTC. Although the amount of coins held is not large, the transfer of funds from this address also needs to be paid attention to.

Figure 4: Mt.Gox funds main destination address, source: search.ichainfo.com

We divide the market selling pressure formed by Mt.Gox paying bitcoins into three stages: initiator, outbreak period, and harvest period. Judging from the recent trend of bitcoin, after the German government s selling pressure on July 12, the price of bitcoin is gradually coming out of the previous low. However, when investors began to regain their optimism, the selling pressure of Mt.Gox had just begun.

As of press time, the Mt.Gox address has started the transfer test of small amounts of Bitcoin again. Currently, the compensation is in the early preparation stage of the launch, and most customers have not received the Bitcoin paid by the exchange. After nearly ten years of passive lock-up, the income of these customers has exceeded 20 times. Obviously, after these years of difficult complaints and compensation processes, most customers will choose to sell and cash in profits as soon as they get the coins. If nearly 100,000 Bitcoins are sold in August, it will once again have a huge impact on the market. It is believed that the shorts will use the Mt.Gox incident to attack the market. search.ichainfo.com will closely monitor the on-chain transfer trends of these addresses. Please pay attention to the follow-up tracking and analysis.