Musk and his "US election" business experience

If you mention the difference between this US election and the previous ones, the always eloquent former President Trump may say a lot of dissatisfaction, such as the temporary change of the opponent's leader, the lack of campaign funds, and the assassination attempt on his own. But if you ask him who he wants to thank the most in this election, Musk will definitely be one of Trump's answers.

In this year's election, Musk unexpectedly stood firmly with Trump. Not only did he spend 75 million US dollars in campaign funds in the third quarter to show his determination, he also canvassed votes on public platforms. Recently, he even launched a lottery project to mobilize the masses to support him. Whether in terms of manpower or funds, Musk's efforts can be described as doing his best.

Such a clear stand is not a wise move for an extremely influential and controversial entrepreneur. In an election where the outcome is unknown, if you are not careful, the party's ship will be overturned, and the loser will not only face political failure, but also face risks to personal safety.

Back to a few years ago, Musk and Trump were obviously not very close. The verbal battles between the two were often staged on public platforms. Trump even ridiculed Musk for kneeling in the White House to ask for subsidies. What could make Musk put aside his past grudges and help so wholeheartedly?

In the precarious election, the business of money and power is also going on secretly.

01 With momentum, Musk spends a lot of money on Trump

Not long ago, Trump said in a speech: "I called Elon and he gave me the best support." Musk's support is naturally extraordinary to be so thanked by the presidential candidate.

In terms of hard financial support, since he made his clear choice in July, it is not an exaggeration to describe Musk as a lavish spender. According to data disclosed by the Federal Commission, in the third quarter, Musk donated $75 million to the America PAC, which supports Trump, although the amount was expected by the market and was even slightly lower than the previous forecast of $45 million per month. But judging from the total amount alone, Musk has become the largest donor except for Adelson, a staunch supporter of Trump and heir to the casino fortune (who donated $95 million).

From the financial side alone, Musk's help can be described as timely assistance. In this election, Trump has been struggling to raise funds for a long time.

From the data, the Democratic Party has maintained its consistent dominant position this year, and even due to the change of leadership in the middle of the term, fundraising has become more focused. Since becoming the leader of the Democratic Party at the end of July, Harris has raised $1 billion. In the third quarter alone, Harris's fundraising committee raised $633 million, four times the amount raised by Trump's similar fundraising department in the same period.

Although Trump did not show it on the surface, he was very dissatisfied behind the scenes. According to the New York Times, at the donor dinner in September, Trump bluntly said that he needed people, including donors, to do more, appreciate and help him more. At this kind of dinner, it was clear what he meant. As for fundraising, Trump personally took great pains. He had to sell tickets to attend the conference and raise funds for crypto projects. All channels were opened up, and pressure on supporters was also essential. In April, Trump threatened to let large oil and gas companies raise $1 billion for him. In July, Trump even sent a text message to his number one supporter Adelson to donate $250 million.

But for the election, money is only the most intuitive factor. Money is important, but huge money does not mean victory. In addition to money, the "help" provided by Musk should not be underestimated.

First of all, Musk, who has 200 million fans, is very well-known, and controls the large public opinion platform X, is inflammatory just by announcing his support. In August, Musk took the lead and held an exclusive Space interview to speak out for Trump. Millions of people fired the first shot of the campaign online. Trump also took the opportunity to reconcile with the X platform and continue to carry forward his consistent public propaganda policy. Since then, the relationship between the two has become closer, and their public propaganda has a tacit understanding.

Musk has 200 million followers on the X platform, source: X

In October, Trump returned to Butler, Pennsylvania and held a campaign rally. Musk was invited to accompany him, wearing a MEGA, showing his flesh on the stage to support him, and gave a speech praising Trump's masculinity, which was a sign of prosperity.

Just a few days ago, Musk made another big move, randomly selecting a voter who participated in the petition in Pennsylvania every day and giving him a million dollars for free. The petition was launched online by the "American Political Action Committee" created by Musk, calling for support for freedom of speech and gun rights. According to the rules, from October 19th until the day of the presidential election on November 5th, any voter who signs and participates in the petition in the seven key "swing states" of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin will have a chance to win $1 million every day; the "lottery" qualification for the first three days is limited to Pennsylvania voters, and voters in the seven states are eligible thereafter.

Previously, Musk had launched a campaign for Pennsylvania voters, "$100 for participating in the petition, and another $100 for recommending one person", while for other swing states, it was $47. Not only attracting new members, but also fission, one can't help but sigh that Musk is well versed in Internet operations. Although it seems to be just a petition campaign launched to defend the right to support freedom of speech and bear arms, it is obvious that this activity is intended to attract supporters of pro-Trump speech, and the purpose is still to vote for Trump.

Needless to say, spending money to buy votes poses compliance risks in any country. Even if it is packaged in the form of a lottery, the plan issued to voters is obviously suspected of violating the ban. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro said that law enforcement agencies should pay more attention to this. Even so, Musk's lottery is still going on, and two lucky viewers have been produced.

A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall, but Musk's actions do not conform to this famous saying. Taking compliance risks to canvass votes, spending huge sums of money on the platform, not to mention often accusing another candidate of being a puppet in public, Musk has paid too much for this election.

02 From fighting to honeymoon, Musk and Trump's love and hate

Then again, what magic does Trump have that makes Musk work so hard to pave the way for him?

Back in 2017, after Trump took office as president, the relationship between the two was still good. Trump once invited Musk to serve as a White House business consultant, but the cooperative relationship lasted less than half a year. Because Trump resolutely withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, Musk believed that the agreement would hinder Tesla's promotion of clean energy, and the two eventually parted ways.

Since then, as a representative of technology and immigration, Musk has gradually turned to the Democratic Party, and his relationship with Trump has reached a freezing point. The two have fought each other on social media more than once. In 2022, Musk bluntly said that Trump should resign. Trump was not to be outdone and responded, "Musk came to the White House and asked me to help him with projects that rely on subsidies, whether it is electric cars that don't run long enough, driverless cars that frequently have car accidents, or rocket ships that have nowhere to go. Without these subsidies, Musk will be worthless." Trump also said, "He told me at the time that he was a loyal fan of Trump and a Republican. If I asked him to kneel down for me, he would kneel down." Perhaps it was not enough to relieve his anger, he also posted a photo of Musk standing next to him with a smile on his face, which was full of irony. There are no eternal enemies in the adult world. In less than 2 years, the two have returned to the honeymoon period. When asked about the reason, Musk responded in an interview that he supported Trump because the current Democratic Party's political views and values ​​were inconsistent with his, and the Democratic Party's laissez-faire racial diversity accelerated the division of the United States. Judging from Musk's own characteristics of populism and political strongman worship, this statement is reasonable, but to make him turn 180 degrees, it is obviously not enough to rely on ideas alone. The core reason is nothing more than one thing-interest.

Let's start with the core of the transformation of Musk's relationship with the Democratic Party. Initially, Musk supported Biden because of his promise to vigorously develop clean energy and support the development of electric vehicles. Development is development, but the Biden administration seems to deliberately exclude Tesla. In August 2021, the Biden administration organized an electric vehicle summit and signed an executive order at the event, with the goal of half of all new cars sold in the United States being zero-emission vehicles by 2030. Interestingly, this event invited General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis, but did not invite the largest electric car giant Tesla. The reason at that time was due to the pressure from the United Auto Workers, a long-time ally of the Democratic Party, on Biden's party.

The rift arose from this, and as his companies continued to develop, Musk's conflicts with the government increased due to issues such as the wealth tax on the rich, anti-union forces, and corporate regulatory policies. During Biden's term, Musk's companies such as Tesla and SpaceX became the targets of at least 20 regulatory investigations or reviews, which added fuel to the fire in the relationship between the two.

Musk's companies were reviewed by multiple US regulatory agencies, source: New York Times

On the other hand, taking SpaceX as an example, according to statistics from the New York Times, last year, SpaceX signed nearly 100 different contracts with 17 US federal agencies and obtained $3 billion in funding commitments. The government has become SpaceX's largest funder.

But just last month, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) initiated a procedure to fine SpaceX $633,009 because the company violated licensing requirements and endangered safety in two launches in Florida last year. In the test flight of the Starship a few days ago, the FAA also delayed the test flight for several weeks on the grounds of suspected endangerment of wildlife. Not long ago, the U.S. Department of Justice sued SpaceX again, saying that the company refused to employ refugees and asylum seekers because of its citizenship.

In addition to supervision, subsidies are no longer so easy to get. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which is responsible for supervising SpaceX's launch of Internet satellites, revoked SpaceX's application for $886 million in federal funds to provide Internet access to rural areas because it provided services in non-rural areas.

Tesla is no less impressive. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has launched five investigations into Tesla, including complaints about cars accidentally braking, losing steering control, and crashing in "autopilot" mode.

Musk has long been resentful of this and believes that he has been politically persecuted. In 22 years, he denounced US regulators as bastards. Personal life also played a key role in this. Musk's son's transgender also made him think that the ideology of the Democratic Party was too radical. It was this fuse that caused Musk to break with California and subsequently acquire Twitter. After various events, Musk gradually threw himself into the arms of the Republican Party and officially supported Trump on July 13 this year.

03 Behind the support, the undercurrent of money and power transactions surged

Supporting Trump is naturally due to the commitment reached by the two.

It is worth noting that although Trump's attitude softened after the alliance with Musk, saying that he would support electric vehicles, Trump was not an electric car enthusiast before that. Influenced by this, liberals who are keen on environmental protection have begun to boycott Tesla. According to data from the California New Car Dealers Association, Tesla's sales fell 17% in the second quarter in California, where the Liberal Party is concentrated and the largest electric vehicle market in the United States.

So what did Trump promise that allowed Musk to take such a big risk and insist on taking action?

A government efficiency department has also surfaced. As early as August 12, when Trump talked with Musk, he mentioned that if he was elected president, Musk might get a position in his government. A few days later, Musk posted an AI-generated picture on X, which read "Department of Government Efficiency", but at that time the market mostly thought it was just a meme spread.

On September 5, Trump mentioned this position again, saying that he would adopt Musk's suggestion and formally establish a "Government Efficiency Committee" led by the latter. Trump did not explain the operation of the committee in detail, but only said that after its establishment, the committee would be responsible for "conducting a comprehensive financial and performance audit of the entire federal government" and making recommendations on reforms to reduce government spending. On October 18, Musk also disclosed the plan, saying that the department would operate like a company, improve the efficiency of the government's use of taxpayer funds, and streamline the departments responsible for spending.

It seems that the introduction of external experts will enhance transparency and improve funding efficiency. The final expenditure still needs to be approved by Congress, which is quite appropriate in terms of Musk's past record of cost savings. But if we look closely at this function, we can see that all federal government projects must be cut by its recommendations, and it may also have the function of reducing redundant procedures. In fact, it has already assumed the "regulation" of the regulatory authorities in disguise. As a federal project contractor who has long received high subsidies, Musk is very likely to have collusion of interests.

For example, SpaceX once mentioned in a statement that "the paperwork for government permits for rocket launches takes longer than the time required to design and build the actual hardware." So in this case, is the so-called efficiency department qualified to "recommend" the streamlining of the regulatory regulations? Furthermore, does Musk have the ability to cut the contract expenditures of his competitors and the government, so that his own company can gain more benefits?

Of course, the operating model of the committee has not yet been revealed, but it is certain that the conflicts of interest contained therein are already undercurrents. As for why Trump chose Musk, it is also easy to understand. In his last term, Trump was still a fledgling political rookie. Although Hillary Clinton's revelation at a critical moment caused the establishment to turn to Trump for self-protection, in the subsequent administration, Trump's rough America First concept made the highly rentier globalized establishment quickly distance itself from him, which greatly affected the efficiency of administration in the future.

This year, Trump also learned his lesson and began to cultivate a party that is more suitable for him. He chose Pence, who is younger and easier to control, among the vice presidential candidates. It is understandable to choose Musk, who has a similar personality, significant influence and is also a businessman. The same is true for Musk's anti-election. In the deeply rooted Democratic Party, which has also been cold-shouldered, it is difficult for Musk to get a big job, but on the relatively amateur side of Trump, the importance is very different, and he is more likely to go further in his political career.The two hit it off immediately, and in the eyes of the market, it has changed from "fighting each other" to "honeymoon".

But the sweet relationship between the two parties is a strong threat to the other party. Musk has mentioned more than once in public that he does not want to get involved in politics. This is a last resort, otherwise the Democratic Party will threaten his personal safety after coming to power. He even mentioned that the possibility of his assassination has greatly increased. Whether Musk, who has acquired public opinion platforms and has taken sides, really has no intention of being in politics is beyond comment, but the prison disaster caused by failure is very likely to exist. If it comes to this, SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, X and other business platforms that Musk is proud of will also be widely affected. In this regard, Musk's emphasis on assassination in public everywhere is obviously intended to make the Democratic Party cautious, and perhaps this is also one of the important means to protect itself.

It is worth mentioning that Musk, who is worth $250 billion, does not hold a large amount of cash flow. Stock assets are his core wealth. Tesla stock accounts for 60% of Musk's net worth. Therefore, election donations and subsequent promotions are not an easy expense even for Musk.

In the final analysis, the reason why so many manpower and material resources can be spent is that Musk has already made a desperate move in this election.

Fortunately, Trump is currently very competitive. Although the latest polls show that Harris's 46% support rate is slightly higher than Trump's 43%, Trump's support rate has clearly rebounded in swing states. As of October 21, polls show that Trump is already ahead in 8 of the 9 swing states. In the gambling market, Trump's winning rate has reached 57.9%, far exceeding Harris's 40.8%, and the crypto prediction market is significantly ahead of Harris by about 30 percentage points. If everything is deduced according to the data, it may only be a matter of time before Trump takes office. In response, the crypto market also followed suit, with BTC breaking through $66,000 and DOGE also gaining popularity.

Of course, it’s not the end yet, and it’s hard to predict whether it will be a blessing or a curse, but what is certain is that Musk and Trump, the brothers of interest, have been tightly tied to the same boat.