My logic and mentality in participating in early projects

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

At the end of the article these days, a reader mentioned a very common question:

If you miss the earliest stage of a project, what mentality should you use to evaluate whether it is still worth participating?

An important concept mentioned in this question is "early stage".

But in my experience, judging whether a project is still in its early stage is very subjective to a large extent, and it is difficult to have an objective standard.

It is very likely that we think that a thing we have discovered is not new at all, but in fact most people in the ecosystem have not been exposed to it at all; it is also possible that other people in this ecosystem have long been accustomed to the things we think are very new.

If there must be a general reference standard, then my reference standard is to see how often Twitter and related media mention this track or related projects?

But what is "more" and what is "less" is personal experience. After experiencing several bull markets in the crypto ecosystem, investors may be able to establish a perceptual judgment psychologically.

In addition, you can also refer to the total circulating value (FDV) of a new project's tokens and compare its FDV with the market value of tokens of more mature projects in the current ecosystem.

For example, the FDV of the 100th-ranked token is $1.3 billion. If the FDV of a token is less than $1 billion, I think it is likely to be in a stage where the bubble is not large.

For such projects, I don't think the price is a factor I have to worry about.

If we can't find such a project according to the above standards, we will miss it, and there is nothing to regret------Even if you see that the project you have seen but let go is rising all the way in the future, don't get emotional. You can summarize and reflect on whether you can adjust your judgment criteria or learn some lessons in which aspects to fight again. There must be opportunities in the future.

If we are lucky and find such a project, then my focus will not be on the price but the fundamentals of the project: such as track, team, construction, etc.

But at this time, we are likely to encounter another embarrassing situation: the project information is pitifully small, or even a blank sheet of paper.

At this time, I think what is most needed is courage------take out assets that can be completely sacrificed and boldly participate according to your own ideas.

For example, when I first saw the Virtuals platform, it was in this situation.

At that time, there was no interview with the project co-founder, and I don’t remember where I saw the information about this platform, and then I took a look at this platform out of curiosity.

After reading it, I can probably understand that it is using a similar 1CO method to finance AI agents, and I don’t have a deeper understanding of it.

On the Virtuals platform at that time, the top three were the three AI agents supported by the project: LUNA, GAME and CONVO. Then there were about one hundred or two hundred copycat agents left.

I once said in the article that I didn’t have any feelings about LUNA.

As for GAME, when I read its introduction, I only had the impression that it was an agent related to games, but there were no details about what this agent could do, let alone a detailed introduction.

As for CONVO, I didn't quite understand it. I seemed to think it was something related to the user experience of AI agents, but I couldn't find more information about what it was used for.

I looked at a few of the remaining copycat agents and felt that they were no different from GPT. I guess they were just covered with a fancy coat.

So what do I think in this case?

The first point I thought of was: VIRTUAL is a platform coin. Regardless of whether it succeeds or not, other agents have to rely on it to list coins, so I have to buy it anyway.

And what about the others?

I can't believe those copycats without any background, so I can only choose the agents supported by the three platforms.

This is my logic.

I don’t have any profound knowledge, any inside information, or any foresight.

Around the end of December, the GAME project suddenly announced that they had come up with an AI agent framework that was a competitor to ELIZA, and the project tokens have since soared.

But how could I have known this when I bought GAME?

It was completely the result of bold participation.