On-chain data: Using timestamps and price stamps to determine the top of a large cycle

Author: Murphy Source: X, @Murphychen888

There are two core concepts in the on-chain data analysis of BTC, namely "timestamp" and "price stamp". The transparency of the blockchain allows us to observe each on-chain transaction and identify two key details: 1. The time when the chip movement occurs: timestamp; 2. The price when the transaction occurs: price stamp;

When we analyze the transition of stage trends, the data used, such as turnover cost, profit realization, demand inflow, and hot supply, are mainly based on "price stamp". If we want to observe and analyze the timeliness of the BTC large cycle, we need to use "timestamp" more.

Each BTC exists in a certain UTXO, and the timestamp function of UTXO means that each BTC has an age, which does not refer to the time when it was mined, but the time from the last move to the present.

We can distinguish BTCs of different ages by the length of time, for example, they can be divided into 1 week-1 month (1w-1m), or 1-2 years (1-2y), etc. Usually we classify BTCs that have not been moved for more than 6 months (more than 155 days to be precise) or more as long-term holders (LTH) chips, and the others are classified as short-term holders (STH) chips.

Looking back at the entire development history of BTC, every time there is a bull market cycle, LTH will distribute chips to STH; at this time, the proportion of wealth owned by the "old currency group" began to gradually decline (as shown by the green dotted line in Figure 1);

(Figure 1)

In the bear market, the chips returned from STH to LTH, and the proportion of wealth owned by the "new currency group" began to gradually decline (as shown by the green dotted line in Figure 2);

(Figure 2)

（Figure 3）

When the waveform drops to the bottom and the slope begins to slow down, it means that the market is in the middle and late stages of the bull market, which can also be considered the "top range" of the bull market. It should be noted that these two groups are the most experienced investors in the market. For example, the BTC purchased by MSTR three years ago, from December 2021 to January 2022, belongs to this group. It was STH when it was bought, and it has become LTH today.

The current data has dropped from a peak of 56% to 12.3% (green dashed line in the figure), while the lowest values ​​of the ratio in the previous two cycles were 1.3% (17-18 cycle) and 6.6% (21-22 cycle). Considering that more and more cross-cycle institutional investors like MSTR are joining the coin holding group, I think the lowest value of 1-2y & 2-3y in this cycle should be higher than 6.6% in the previous cycle, and the probability is expected to be between 7% and 10%.

If we draw a standard line (see the red dashed line in Figure 1) based on the current value (point A), we can see that in the first two cycles, when the indicator dropped to the same position, the price of BTC was in the top range, and the relative position was in the middle and late stages of the bull market. As time goes by, the curve gradually hits the bottom and starts to turn upward, and when it returns to the original height again (point B), it usually means that the bull market is over.

From A to B is a "smile curve". The whole process took 17 months in the 17-18 cycle, and 12 months in the 21-22 cycle. According to the above analysis, the bottom of this cycle is likely to be higher than 6.6%. Therefore, I think the total duration of the "smile curve" is less than or equal to 12 months (entering a bear market).

At the same time, we can see that in the 17-18 cycle, the time from point A to the last high point of the cycle is 6 months (Figure 3 Mark 1); the time from point A to the last high point of the cycle in the 21-22 cycle is 10 months (Figure 3 Mark 2).

Since the 17-18 cycle is a very special sharp-angled top, it is less referenceable; the 21-22 cycle double top cycle should be more worthy of reference; therefore, I think that the time period from the current point A to the future point B in this cycle is less than/equal to 10 months, perhaps about 9-10 months.

If this inference is true, then the end of this round of bull market cycle will roughly occur between September and October 2025.

Note! All the above probabilistic inferences are only my personal subjective opinions, not objective feedback from the data!

After talking about the relationship between currency age conversion and cycle, let's observe from another angle - metaphysics! Three-line co-frequency resonance curve

I roughly counted the questions sent to me in the backstage private message, and the frequency of mentioning the "three-line integration" indicator was the highest. My friends seem to be very obsessed with this; although I know that this indicator has shown magical accuracy many times in this cycle,I still think that we can't put the cart before the horse. We should look at the objective data first, and then use the "three-line integration" for reference.

(Figure 4)

Based on the information feedback in the figure, I give the following more subjective interpretations. Please look at it rationally, and don't use it as the only basis for judgment!

1. At present, the red line has reached a critical turning point. From the position point of view, the red line is closer to the blue line, and it is a little away from the upper green line, and there is no consistency of the three lines sticking together.

That is to say, from mid-to-late December to mid-January, there will be 3 possibilities of deviation: continue to break new highs (Figure 4 Mark 1)/consolidation (Figure 4 Mark 2)/correction (Figure 4 Mark 3); but from the overall trend point of view, the green line and the blue line are both in a correction state during this stage. Therefore, I personally think that the probability of 3 and 2 is greater than 1;

Emotionally, I prefer 2, and 1 is the least likely; of course, a moderate correction will also be more conducive to the continuation of this round of trends.

2. Many of you may remember that in my previous analysis of the "three-line integration" indicator, I mentioned: "Around 2024.12-2025.1, MVRV will have a sharp correction." At present, from the comprehensive observation of other on-chain data, this so-called "significant" may not be as large as imagined. There are two reasons:

a. In the current on-chain chip structure distribution, a huge column of 600,000 BTC is formed at $97,000, and there are nearly 2 million BTC accumulations in the 9.4w-10w USD range, creating a potential support range.

b. Judging from the current new demand data, although there has been a decline, it has not dropped below the zero axis quickly. In other words, there is still a certain scale of demand in the market, and it can maintain a certain degree of balance.

3. The green and blue lines in the figure are glued at the mark 4, and the glued position is significantly higher than the current (mark 4 in Figure 4), which means that there will be another wave of market in March-April 2025.

According to the current "on-chain average turnover cost" and "average cost of active investors", I calculated that the price of BTC in March-April has a certain probability of reaching more than 120,000 US dollars, but not more than 150,000 US dollars (since the turnover cost will change, this calculation needs to be calibrated every 2 weeks).

4. If this wave of rebound occurs in March-April, it may be the end of this round of trend market, and the future depends on the changes in macro policies.

5. After that, the market may enter a 4-5 month long consolidation period (as marked 5 in the figure). In the early stage of this stage, the green line and the blue line are consistent and downward; but in the middle, they begin to separate, so there is also great uncertainty here. But in general, the high point of the wide range of consolidation will not exceed the peak of March-April.

6. There will be the last wave of this cycle in September-October 2025 (as marked 6 in the figure). In the early stage of this stage, the green line and the blue line are greatly separated. If the red line is close to the blue line at that time, the high point of this wave of market will be higher than the peak of March-April; if the red line is close to the green line, the high point will be lower than the peak of March-April.

At the same time, we can see that the green and blue lines are glued together in the part circled by the red dotted line, and the position here is lower than the peak of March-April. This may mean that the highs in September and October are more likely to be lower than the highs in March and April.

Interestingly, the conclusions drawn from observing the "metaphysical indicators" are highly consistent with the temporal inferences based on the currency age conversion mentioned above. If this is true, it means that the highest point of this cycle will occur in March and April 2025, and the high point in September and October 2025 will be the last "top" of this cycle, and the height may not be higher than the previous one (I personally prefer to be close to the previous high, not necessarily much higher).

From a trading perspective, once entering the top range, I still insist on firmly implementing trading discipline and making a batch profit-taking plan as long as there is a signal of phased attenuation, even if there may be higher highs later (this is a matter of probability). After BTC stops profiting, some of the positions vacated may be considered to switch to some high-quality ALTs, striving to find a second growth curve that outperforms the big pie in the second half of the bull market.