Opinion: Four reasons why the Bitcoin bull market is not over

Author: Lao Mao Source: X, @Imlaomao

Under the violent hammer of the big Yin column at the weekly level, it is very dangerous to offer this mouthful of milk.

Although 99% of my content in the past 10 years has emphasized investing in Bitcoin, some people have taken out an extra 1% and leveraged themselves to death, and then said in the comment area that they didn’t get rich because they listened to me.

So, I emphasize here that I am only talking about Bitcoin, only Bitcoin, and the Bitcoin that is scientifically, reasonably and safely stored in my own cold wallet. It does not include Bitcoin and Bitcoin contract positions on any trading platform, nor does it include any Bitcoin-related stocks and any Bitcoin-related ETFs, no other altcoins, no Sol, no Eth, no Xrp and Ada. I don’t touch these varieties, and I can’t give any advice. Is it clear enough?

In addition, my milk is for real hodlers. These people don’t need my milk. I give them this milk just to encourage them in difficult times, which is equivalent to giving them a hug of love. It is definitely not an investment advice. For other experts who are capable of making money in the market or even in the bear market, this milk is not suitable for you. Please let it go.

The last time I wrote an article about Bitcoin, it was when Bitcoin fell from more than 60,000 US dollars to around 18,888 US dollars. Some people may still remember what I wrote.

Let me talk about my subjective feelings first. Although it is rumored that several legendary tycoons and trading experts have liquidated their bitcoins, this has nothing to do with me. I firmly believe that this bull market has not ended. The reasons are as follows:

1. Not crazy. If this is considered a bull market, this is a bull market that is too rational and conservative. According to today's currency price, although Bitcoin's annualized return has reached an astonishing 94% in the past two years, according to Grok's analysis (as shown below), dozens of stocks have also achieved such an increase. The high-risk investment return of Bitcoin is only equivalent to that of a relatively good U.S. stock. As for other varieties, do you have the nerve to call it a "bull market?" For the first time, Bitcoin has become a well-behaved U.S. stock. I will not say how high it can rise, but at least its decline will be limited. If you want to drink a sip of warm milk, don't fall too excitingly, it's also a taste.

2. Although Wall Street has taken over and ETFs have been launched, the power of the money printing cycle has not yet been demonstrated. Bitcoin has at most experienced a sluggish bull market, and money printing will inevitably be the main theme of the fiscal policies of various governments in the next step. Surviving the dry season and welcoming a huge bull market is what Hodler deserves.

3. Please correctly understand the meaning of the Trump administration's cryptocurrency "reserves". If you don't understand these two words deeply, you don't understand them deeply. The gold reserves of the United States are said to have not been moved for decades. If a considerable amount of Bitcoin is locked up and not moved, given the current number of tradable Bitcoins, this is a big deal. This alone is enough to make the recent fluctuations a small crease in the future flat line. Once the US government reserves are opened, other countries are not stupid either. It is almost inevitable that they will gradually follow up. There is only a difference between "yes" and "no" in reserve policies, not big or small. As long as there is a beginning, it is an arms race for reserves, and it must be a long-term competitive pattern with no end in sight. Bitcoin, as an asset that the US government needs to legislate for reserves, currently has a market value equivalent to only one US stock. If the future market value is likely to remain at this state, no government in any country will have a need for reserves. The reason for reserves is only one purpose: to avoid losing the right to speak in the process of a sharp rise in this asset. This is a reserve of power. Everyone can say that Trump is a confused bastard, but the behavior of the world's most powerful country, you actually believe that they are just a makeshift team playing around, which may be a bit frivolous.

4. The last point is that I have collected various bull market indicators with cycles as the goal over the years. I dare not say that there is absolutely no element of seeking swords by carving a boat, but I try to actively abandon the parts related to the boat and the sword. Even so, this round of sluggish bull market has only reached 30% of the reasonable space guided by the comprehensive indicators. At this price, I don’t know if I am the only one who thinks it is not worth selling. Even if I have to sell it, I feel it is a cheap sale. I am not sure if I can buy it back at a cheaper price, so I can only Hodl. At the current price, please feel free to go up or down.

Ten years of professional elevator management, gorgeous clothes to treat you, with you, no regrets.

Again, all the above content is not investment advice. If you make money based on it, you will lose it at your own risk. If you make money, I will V me 50 :)

I don't promise anyone financial freedom. Financial freedom is always your own business. If you rely on anyone else's opinions to invest, the outcome will not be very good.