Author: Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner, Pantera Capital; Translated by: Shaw Jinse Finance
Reviewing My 2025 Predictions
Before sharing my predictions for 2026, I'd like to review my eight predictions for 2025 to examine their accuracy.
I assigned subjective scores to my eight predictions for 2025, from 1 (least accurate) to 5 (most accurate). The results were fairly evenly distributed, with no 1s, and two each for 2s, 3s, 4s, and 5s.
#1 RWA Growth Forecast: By the end of the year, Real-World Assets (RWA) excluding stablecoins will account for 30% of Total Value Locked (TVL) on-chain. Rating: 3/5 When I made this forecast, RWA excluding stablecoins accounted for 15% of on-chain TVL, worth $13.7 billion. As of December 15, 2025, with a TVL of $118 billion in DeFi, RWA will account for approximately 16% of TVL, worth $16.6 billion. Therefore, despite the expansion of the RWA space, its share of on-chain TVL remains relatively stable. The main areas include the following categories: Tokenized Collectibles: $8.7 billion Tokenized Commodities: $3.2 billion Tokenized Private Lending: $2.4 billion Tokenized Institutional Funds: $2.4 billion #2 Bitcoin Finance (Bitcoin-Fi) Prediction: 1% of Bitcoin will participate in Bitcoin Finance (Bitcoin-Fi). Rating: 4/5 In this case, I actually underestimated the participation rate. As of December 13, Bitcoin-Fi accounted for 1.4% of the total Bitcoin supply of 19.9 million. The early Bitcoin liquidity staking market is currently valued at $2.5 billion. Related projects include Babylon, Lombard, Arch Network, and Mezo. Another application is lending, with Ledn, Unchained, and Coinbase projected to each complete over $1 billion in Bitcoin-secured loans by 2025. Key developments include Babylon's partnership with Aave, the tBTC credit market, and the Stacks ecosystem powered by ALEX Lab, Zest Protocol, and other applications. #3 Fintech Companies as Cryptocurrency Portals Prediction: Fintech companies will become increasingly prevalent and may rival smaller centralized exchanges in the cryptocurrency staking space. Rating: 5/5 In 2025, fintech companies first competed with smaller centralized exchanges, and then surpassed them. According to company reports, Robinhood's market capitalization reached $51 billion, exceeding that of mid-sized centralized exchanges, while Bitfinex's market capitalization was only $20.7 billion, relatively small. This shift reflects the structural advantages of fintech companies in user acquisition, regulatory positioning, and integrated financial services. #4 Unichain L2 Dominance Prediction: Unichain will become the leading L2 blockchain in terms of trading volume.
Rating：2/5
Looking at the L2 funding situation in December, Unichain ranked sixth with a total funding amount of $260.14 million.
valued at $396.63 million
#5 The resurgence of NFT applications in specific fields
Prediction: Flexibility is the strength of NFTs (non-fungible tokens). Its application scenarios will only continue to increase. Rating: 2/5 By 2025, the types of NFT application scenarios will have increased across various fields, but overall, the widespread adoption of NFTs still faces obstacles. NFTs were initially mainly used for speculative art, but today their practical applications include: Games (market size of $540 billion), such as *Dyplans World*, *Pixels*, and *Seraph*. Ticketing market (market size of $1.1 billion), such as OPEN Ticketing Ecosystem, GUTS Tickets, and SeatlabNFT. RWA tokenization, such as Propy, RealT, and Lofty. Ethereum Name Service (ENS), Lens protocol, and decentralized identity systems like Galxe (https://www.galxe.com/) saw a significant increase in active wallets in Q3, reaching 2.1 million, with a substantial rise in user engagement. Traders held an average of 8.4 NFTs per wallet, compared to 4.2 in Q1. #6 Launch of Restaking Protocols Prediction: Restaking protocols like Eigenlayer, Symbiotic, and Karak will eventually launch their own tokens, which will pay AVS and forfeiture proceeds to operators.
Rating：3/5
Restaking in the anticipated instances has not seen widespread adoption as expected. Instead, we are seeing some important restaking protocols expand into adjacent business areas.
EigenLayer/EigenCloud activated its penalty mechanism on April 17, 2025, and is now fully operational. That fall, they also launched EigenAI and EigenCompute on the mainnet, expanding their business into the AI/computing workload space, no longer limited to infrastructure. However, Symbiotic's business has expanded into the insurance sector, while most restaking protocols have not yet been launched due to declining TVL.
#7 zkTLS Trends Prediction: zkTLS will bring off-chain data to on-chain, providing new application scenarios for data verification in DeFi/Fintech and various industries and use cases. Rating: 5/5 zkTLS already has several practical product implementations, including the following: TransCrypts, launched in 2024, is designed for income and authentication. Accountable, launched in May 2025, is designed to verify financial data between counterparties. Earnifi, launching in 2025, aims to improve EWA underwriting. DaisyApp, launching in 2025, aims to enable verifiable influencer marketing and attribution analytics. 3Jane, currently in internal testing, is designed for asset and identity verification to underwrite unsecured loans. EarnOS is designed for verifying user acquisition and attribution. We see zkTLS being adopted in the verification space. #8 Creating a Favorable Regulatory Environment Prediction: We will see a decrease in SEC lawsuits, a clear definition of cryptocurrency as a specific asset class, and tax considerations. Rating: 5/5 This prediction is divided into three parts, with the following accuracy: First, the SEC will conclude several major lawsuits in 2025, including those against Ripple, Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken. Except for Ripple, all other lawsuits will end without penalties, with Ripple ultimately fined $125 million. Significant progress will be made in regulation in 2025, but a clear definition of cryptocurrency as a specific asset class will not be provided. The Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act passed the House of Representatives in July and is currently under consideration by the Senate. This bill would have granted the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jurisdiction over decentralized tokens and the SEC jurisdiction over centralized/investment tokens. Meanwhile, the SEC released a preliminary, non-binding token classification standard in November. The anticipated third part, clear tax guidance, while close to being realized, ultimately failed to materialize. Although the basic definition of digital assets clearly establishes their status as property subject to capital gains tax and ordinary income rules, some ambiguities remain in areas such as DeFi broker reporting and non-custodial trading. Areas of progress include: the phased implementation of mandatory broker reporting, which took effect this year; the establishment of a staking safe harbor for publicly traded trusts/ETFs in November; and the ongoing development of stablecoin regulation following the enactment of the GENIUS Act. In addition, in 2025, the US government appointed a cryptocurrency commissioner, created a strategic reserve for Bitcoin, established a digital assets task force, and elected an SEC chairman who embraces innovation. Nine Predictions for the Crypto Industry in 2026 #1 Real-World Assets (RWA) Take Off As of December 15, 2025, RWA assets will account for approximately 14% of the $118 billion total value locked (TVL) in DeFi, or $16.6 billion. Prediction: Government bonds and private credit are likely to at least double.
The growth of tokenized stocks and equities may accelerate when the SEC's "Project Crypto" program's "Innovation Exemption" is expected to be rolled out.
An unexpected area (such as carbon credits, mining rights, or energy projects) will rapidly emerge. This area may be characterized by fragmented liquidity, uneven global distribution, and a lack of standards, and blockchain-based markets will help address these issues.
#2 Artificial Intelligence Revolutionizes On-Chain Security
Artificial intelligence security and blockchain development tools are becoming increasingly powerful. Real-time fraud detection, Bitcoin transaction tagging with up to 95% accuracy, and instant smart contract debugging capabilities are already available, capable of detecting millions of vulnerabilities in the blockchain.
**Prediction:** By 2026, on-chain intelligence will undergo a significant transformation, with deterministic and verifiable rules replacing smart contract-based governance. Applications will then scan code almost in real-time, instantly identifying logic vulnerabilities and attacks, and providing immediate debugging feedback. The next unicorn company will be an innovative on-chain security company that will improve security by a hundredfold. **#3 Prediction Markets Become Acquisition Targets** The prediction market saw $28 billion in trading volume in the first ten months of 2025, and the sector is consolidating around institutional infrastructure. The week of October 20th saw a record high of $2.3 billion in trading volume. **Prediction:** Acquisitions exceeding $1 billion are expected in this sector, but Polymarket and Kalshi will not be included. Successful platforms will build underlying liquidity tracks with built-in market discovery intelligence, capable of pinpointing the hidden locations of funds and their reasons. No need for fancy new buttons; the key is to easily empower users with superpowers: instant access to hidden fund pools, smarter routing, and predictive order flows. Sports-focused platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel have gone mainstream, partnering with media to offer real-time odds. Emerging sports-focused platforms like NoVig will vertically expand their businesses, and the Asia-Pacific region will see a surge of new startups, as it's a region to watch. #4 Artificial Intelligence as Your Personal Crypto Assistant As systems mature, the use of consumer AI platforms will surge, providing customized experiences to meet individual needs. Seamless integration makes advanced AI easier to use, transforming the user experience from clunky to instantly responsive. Prediction: By 2026, platforms like Surf.ai will attract a diverse audience, from individuals interested in cryptocurrencies to active traders, through intuitive, advanced AI models, proprietary crypto datasets, and multi-step workflow agents. I believe that with its advanced technology and easy-to-use design, Surf will become the preferred cryptocurrency research tool, providing instant, on-chain data-driven market insights at a speed up to 4 times faster than other similar platforms. #5 Banking Giants Poised for Launch: G7 Currency-Peg Stablecoins Imminent Ten major banks are in the early stages of exploring the issuance of stablecoins pegged to the currencies of the G7 countries. These financial institutions are assessing whether industry-standard stablecoins can deliver the advantages of digital currency to individuals and institutions in a compliant and risk-managed manner. Meanwhile, ten European banks are also researching the issuance of stablecoins pegged to the euro. Prediction: A consortium of major banks will issue its own stablecoin (regardless of whether these pilot projects materialize in 2026 or are implemented by other consortia). #6 Privacy, Payments, and Perpetual Contracts: The Three Elements for Institutions Privacy technologies are thriving in the institutional space, with protocols like Zama and Canton balancing transparency and confidentiality, but retail users have yet to gain sufficient attention or scale. The market capitalization of stablecoins has now reached $310 billion, more than doubling since 2023 and maintaining growth for 25 consecutive months. Perpetual contracts already account for approximately 78% of cryptocurrency derivatives trading volume, and the gap between perpetual contracts and spot options continues to widen. Prediction: In terms of privacy, the gap between institutions and retail investors will widen further in 2026. The market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to exceed $2 trillion in the long term, reaching at least $500 billion next year, and the momentum of perpetual contracts will continue into 2026. #7 Institutional Macro Perspective As of December 15th, 17.867% of Bitcoin is currently held by listed companies, private enterprises, ETFs, and governments. Prediction: 2026 will no longer be an era of hype or memes, but an era of consolidation, genuine compliance, and an influx of institutional funds driven by public market liquidity. Cryptocurrencies will integrate into mainstream platforms, upgrade the financial system, and challenge existing industry giants. #8 The Year of the Largest Cryptocurrency IPOs in History The total number of IPOs in the US in 2025 has reached 335, a 55% increase from 2024; many of these are related to cryptocurrencies, including nine blockchain IPOs. This includes cryptocurrency-native companies like Circle, as well as companies with cryptocurrency components such as SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisitions); for example, Bitcoin Infrastructure Acquisition Corp went public on December 2, 2025. Prediction: 2026 will be an even larger year for digital asset IPOs. Coinbase stated that 76% of its companies plan to increase tokenized assets in 2026, with some even planning to allocate more than 5% of their portfolios to tokenized assets. The Morpho protocol is a prime example, with its Total Value Locked (TVL) reaching $8.6 billion in November 2025. #9 Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Consolidation Accelerates In 2021, fewer than ten publicly listed companies held Bitcoin. By mid-December, this number had reached 151, with a total value of $95 billion. If government holdings are included, the number rises to 164, with a total value of $148 billion. Prediction: 2026 will see a brutal market reshuffle. Only one or two companies will dominate each major asset class. Apart from a few long-tail companies that can ride the wave, others will either be acquired or eliminated. This trend will extend globally. Japan's Metaplanet has already shown strong momentum, so the US no longer monopolizes this trend, and the global DAT treasury reserve structure is becoming more diversified.
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