Perp DEX: Hyperliquid faces pressure to unlock billions of yuan

On September 22nd, a special "esports exhibition match" took place at a side event for the KBW 2025 Summit in South Korea. Contract players gave a 10-minute demonstration of leveraging decentralized contract platforms to achieve 100x leverage. Newer platforms such as Lighter, edgeX, and GRVT competed on the same stage. On September 23rd, the founder of Hyperliquid, who had previously rarely appeared in public, appeared at the KBW venue, and was surrounded by many Hyper fans. Currently, the Perp DEX market is in full swing. Leading company Hyperliquid faces potential headwinds from massive token unlocking, while new competitors like Aster, Lighter, and edgeX are leveraging incentives and wealth creation to rapidly attract users and reshape the market. Driven by the multifaceted competition between technology, capital, and attention, this sector is seeing further growth potential. With billions of dollars in selling pressure looming, supply reduction proposals are sparking heated community debate. Hyperliquid's rise is driven not only by its efficient on-chain trading experience and low costs, but also by its early strategy of leveraging price performance to attract users and capital. This strategy has not only enabled Hyperliquid to dominate the Perps DEX market for a long time, but also given it a significant lead in on-chain trading volume and user engagement, leaving competitors far behind. However, the impending massive token unlocking has sparked market concerns. Over a month ago, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes publicly expressed his bullishness on HYPE, claiming the token could achieve a 126-fold increase, potentially reaching $25.8 billion in annualized revenue by 2028. At the time, Hyperliquid's revenue was projected at $5.1 billion. However, on September 22nd, Hayes cashed out his entire holdings, citing impending significant unlocking pressure for HYPE. Despite this, he maintained the 126-fold opportunity existed, given that 2028 was still a long way off. According to Tokenomist data, 238 million HYPE tokens from core contributors will unlock linearly over the next 24 months, starting on November 29th. Currently unlocked, the value stands at $10.8 billion, posing a potential selling pressure of approximately $450 million per month. However, based on HYPE repurchases of approximately $110 million in August, this is far from sufficient to cover this potential selling pressure. Hayes Family Office Fund Maelstrom stated in a statement that this is Hyperliquid's "first real test," and that monthly releases pose a significant risk to HYPE's price stability. "Imagine you're a Hyperliquid developer. You've put in years of tremendous effort, and now you're about to receive a life-changing amount of tokens, accessible with a single click." The fund also noted that even DAT (crypto treasury company) strategies are far less promising than the future scale of HYPE token unlocks. For example, Nasdaq-listed biotech company Sonnet BioTherapeutics will use its $305 million in cash to acquire more HYPE tokens.

Facing market concerns, DBA co-founder Jon Charbonneau and Flashbots strategic director Hasu proposed to reduce the total supply of HYPE by 45%. The proposal points out that Hyperliquid currently has a large number of authorized uncirculated tokens, which are held by the Assistance Fund (AF, approximately 31 million HYPE) and Future Emissions and Community Rewards (FECR, approximately 4.21 million HYPE). It is recommended to change Hyperliquid's economic model, including revoking the authorization of all unminted HYPE currently allocated to Future Emissions and Community Rewards (FECR), destroying all HYPE currently held and subsequently acquired in the Assistance Fund (AF), and removing the maximum supply cap of HYPE of 1 billion, so as to optimize the financial structure of the protocol without affecting the rights of existing token holders or the financial support capacity of the protocol. It is reported that the fund managed by DBA and the two proposers each hold significant positions in HYPE. If the proposal goes to a formal governance vote, all parties involved plan to vote in favor. The proposal has already sparked widespread discussion and attention in the community. The market is entering a period of accelerated differentiation, with incentives driving a short-term traffic surge. In recent days, Aster has leveraged its wealth-creating effect to attract users and attention to more emerging platforms. As the Perp DEX battle reignites, users are flocking to airdrops, while platforms are employing various tactics to compete for liquidity. Currently, the Perp DEX market exhibits a highly concentrated yet rapidly diverging landscape. The growth of leading platforms has shown signs of slowing, while emerging platforms are rapidly rising thanks to anticipated incentives. According to Dune data, as of September 23rd, Hyperliquid held the top 10 perpetual swap markets with a 38.1% market share, followed by Lighter (16.8%), Aster (14.9%), and edgeX (12.3%). However, further analysis reveals that Hyperliquid's market share has declined from 49.3% 90 days ago to 38%, indicating a slight short-term decline. In contrast, emerging platforms are experiencing significant growth. For example, Paradex's trading volume surged 235.8% month-over-month over the past seven days; Aster saw a 146% increase over the past seven days; Lighter saw an approximately 166.7% increase over the past 90 days; and edgeX saw a whopping 544.2% increase over the past 90 days. This suggests that recent market growth has been largely captured by newer platforms. Looking at daily trading volume, PerpetualPulse data shows that over the past 24 hours, the total trading volume of major Perp DEXs reached approximately $42.9 billion, of which Hyperliquid contributed $15.2 billion, Aster $8.6 billion, Lighter $6.3 billion, and edgeX $5.9 billion, respectively. These four platforms collectively account for 84.1%, further confirming that market concentration remains high, but market share differentiation is accelerating.

Trading volume alone cannot fully reflect the true market situation. The open interest/trading volume ratio (OI/Volume) is considered to be a better measure of user activity and market health. According to statistics from Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi (September 22), a high ratio (>100%) indicates a large number of users holding real positions, active leverage usage, and a healthy market. For example, Hyperliquid's ratio is as high as 287%, and Jupiter's is 395%. A medium-to-low ratio (10-65%) indicates that transactions are mostly short-term or arbitrage, and real user activity is limited. For example, Lighter and Orderly both have a ratio of 29%. An extremely low ratio (<20%) suggests inflated volume or incentive-driven trading, with a lack of long-term retention. For example, Aster's ratio is 12%, and Paradex's ratio is 13%. In fact, the recent surges in trading volume and holdings on these platforms are indeed highly correlated with their incentive mechanisms and market expectations. For example, Aster's short-term trading volume surged, driven by the wealth creation effect and the second phase of the airdrop. Lighter, edgeX, and other platforms were influenced by the expected Q4 coin issuance, with users concentrating on accumulating points. However, the overall market size of Perp DEX is entering a new stage. DeFillama data shows that as of September 23, Perp DEX's daily trading volume exceeded US$43.21 billion, an increase of approximately 530.7% from the beginning of the year. Overall, the core of the current Perp DEX competition is a battle for attention and incentives. In the short term, airdrops and token issuance expectations will likely continue to dominate traffic competition, driving periodic bursts of transactions and user migration. However, the real key lies in whether the platform can transform this short-term influx of traffic into real user retention and long-term trading activity.