Polls show Trump leads Biden by 6%; BTC potential bottom may be coming

Headlines

▌Poll shows Trump leads Biden by 6%

According to the New York Times A poll by Siena College and Trump shows that Trump leads Biden by 6 percentage points among potential voters, which will put more pressure on Biden.  

It is reported that the New York Times/Siena College poll is one of the most watched polls in American politics.  

A poll released on Wednesday showed that Trump's support rate was 49% and Biden's was 43%. The survey showed that concerns about Biden's age were the main reason for the reversal of the election. Nearly three-quarters of voters (about 74%) think Biden is too old, a 5-point increase from last week's poll.

▌The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 plummets, or indicates a potential bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) and The S&P 500 (SPX) correlation fell to 0.05, indicating market divergence. In the past five years, the two have been highly positively correlated during the epidemic and from the end of 2021 to 2022. In early 2024, both rose significantly. However, while SPX continues to hit new highs, BTC hovers around $60,000, occasionally falling below this level. Since 2019, BTC and SPX have experienced negative correlation four times, each time indicating local lows for Bitcoin prices.

Quotes

As of press time, according to data from Coingecko:

The recent transaction price of BTC was US$60,226.03, with intraday increases and decreases-2.9%;

ETH’s recent transaction price was US$3294.82, rising during the day Decline-3.6%;

BNB recent The transaction price was US$556.89, and the intraday increase or decrease-3.8%; < /p>

SOL’s recent transaction price was US$140.56, with an intraday increase or decrease of -8.6%< / strong>;

DOGE’s recent transaction price was US$0.1183, with an intraday increase or decrease of -5.4< / strong>%;

XPR’s recent transaction price was US$0.4663, with intraday gains and losses-3.7%.

Policy

▌The US judge said that the cryptocurrencies OHM and Klima are "commodities" in the Jafia LLC fraud case

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that Judge Mary Rowland of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois issued an order to make a summary judgment in the Jafia LLC fraud case. The judge ordered Sam of Oregon to Ikkurty and his company, Jafia LLC, were among others to pay more than $120 million in partial compensation to victims of what the agency called a "Ponzi scheme."  

It is worth noting that Judge Rowland also stated that "the order not only finds that Bitcoin and Ethereum commodities fall within the jurisdiction of the CFTC, but also that the two virtual currencies, OHM and Klima, qualify as commodities." And pointed out that these virtual currencies belong to the same category as Bitcoin and involve regulated futures trading. OHM and Klima are both smaller cryptocurrencies compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, the determination of which assets are securities (governed by the SEC) or commodities (governed by the CFTC) has been controversial.

▌U.S. Congressman Cynthia Lummis: The United States will become the country of Bitcoin

U.S. Senator Congressman Cynthia Lummis said that the United States will become the country of Bitcoin.

▌View: MiCA brings clarity, but stablecoin restrictions need to be improved

Jason Allegrante, chief legal and compliance officer of Fireblocks, said in a statement that the EU’s Cryptoasset Market Regulation (MiCA) will be implemented this summer and is an important milestone for the encryption industry. While MiCA wisely excludes decentralized smart contracts and NFTs, the issuance and trading restrictions on stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, and BUSD are problematic. The current limit is 1 million transactions or 200 million euros, which is nowhere near sufficient to support existing activity levels. The total market value of global stablecoins reaches US$162 billion, 75% of which are USDT, USDC and BUSD. These EU restrictions could lead to significant disruption in the crypto ecosystem, especially when it comes to non-speculative use cases.

Blockchain application

▌Taurus and Zand, the first digital bank in the UAE, cooperates in digital asset custody and tokenization

Blockchain technology company Taurus signed an agreement with Zand, the first digital bank in the UAE. The cooperation covers digital asset custody, agency Tokenization and blockchain connectivity. Zand is the first digital bank in the UAE to hold a full banking license. It was established in 2022 and mainly serves corporate, institutional and wealth customers. Chairman Mohamed Alabbar is the founder of Emaar Properties, which is best known for developing the Burj Khalifa and The Dubai Mall. Zand plans to launch digital asset services covering cryptocurrencies, NFTs, tokenized securities and digital currencies, and will utilize the Taurus-PROTECT wallet solution to provide institutional-grade digital asset custody services.

Cryptocurrency

▌Bloomberg ETF Analyst: Bitwise submitted a revised S-1 form, and the spot Ethereum ETF may be listed in the near future

Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart posted on the We believe that the spot Ethereum ETF product may become available late next week or during the week of July 15th.  

Another Bloomberg analyst, Eric Balchunas, commented: "No one really knows why the SEC is taking so long to process these forms. Considering that there are so few comments, the listing transaction should be very slow." Fast, but maybe some "issue" with the publisher slowing things down, or just summer laziness/people on vacation, not sure. That being said, all signs point to launch being this month, with more details coming next week. Revealed”.

▌DeFi tokens fell 10%-20% this week, with Pendle leading the decline

This week, the decentralized finance (DeFi) market experienced significant fluctuations. Pendle’s governance token fell by 20%, attracting market attention. The market fluctuates greatly, so please control your risks.  

The value of locked assets (TVL) of the Pendle protocol suddenly dropped by US$3 billion, and many users chose to withdraw their funds after the expiration in June instead of continuing. The tokens of major DeFi platforms such as Aave (AAVE) and Lido (LDO) also fell by 10%-15% simultaneously.  

In addition, a large investor transferred millions of dollars of tokens to the Binance exchange for sale, exacerbating panic and liquidity changes in the market. Mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) also performed poorly, further exacerbating the instability in the DeFi market.

▌Over the past 12 hours, the entire network liquidated more than 88 million US dollars , the main liquidation of long orders

Data show that in the past 12 hours, the entire network liquidated $88.3238 million, of which long orders liquidated $72.1212 million, and short orders liquidated $16.2026 million. The main liquidation of long orders one. Among them, the liquidation of BTC was US$21.02 million and the liquidation of ETH was US$20.16 million.

▌Big Tech Carbon Emissions exceed total Bitcoin mining emissions

Since 2019, large tech companies have produced more carbon emissions than total Bitcoin mining emissions. Amazon’s annual CO2 emissions are more than the global mining of Bitcoin. In 2021, Amazon reported emitting 71.54 million tons of carbon dioxide, while annual emissions from Bitcoin mining are estimated at 65.4 million tons. Other large technology companies such as Google and Microsoft have annual emissions of 14.3 million tons and 15.3 million tons respectively, making the total emissions of these companies far exceed that of Bitcoin. Data shows that since 2019, the carbon emissions of large U.S. technology companies have exceeded the total emissions of Bitcoin mining since 2014.

Important economic developments

▌Federal Reserve in August The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 91.2%

According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 27.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 66.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 6.1%.

▌European Central Bank Governing Council member Stunaras: Two more interest rate cuts this year seem reasonable

European Central Bank Governing Council member Stu Naras said that two more interest rate cuts this year seem reasonable; recent data strengthens the case for further interest rate cuts; even if interest rates are cut twice more, the central bank's interest rates will still be at restrictive levels; Services inflation should not be over-interpreted.

▌"Fed mouthpiece": Fed officials signaled no rush to cut interest rates

"Fed spokesperson" Nick Timiraos said that as rising inflation made Fed officials lack sufficient confidence to cut interest rates, some policymakers called at last month's meeting to pay close attention to signs that the job market may be weakening faster than expected. Minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that "several participants stated that monetary policy should stand ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness." Officials also cited several economic developments, including slower wage growth, reduced corporate pricing power and consumer uncertainty. Sensitivity to price increases has increased to support their expectations that inflation will continue to fall in the coming year. Minutes of the meeting showed officials were broadly satisfied with their wait-and-see stance on interest rate changes and highlighted a range of views that could prompt the Fed to raise or lower interest rates. Combined with recent public statements from Fed officials, the minutes suggested they were unlikely to cut rates at their meeting later this month.

Golden Encyclopedia

▌What is Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS)?

DPoS is an evolution of the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, designed to provide enhanced scalability, efficiency, and democratic governance. Daniel Larimer proposed the DPoS concept in 2014 as an enhancement of the traditional PoS consensus mechanism, aiming to improve efficiency and scalability. Larimer first shared his vision in a Bitcointalk forum post, which led to the actual implementation of DPoS and the launch of BitShares in 2015.

Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and not as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment philosophy and be sure to increase your risk awareness.