The coin market in 2025 is like an adventure movie with ups and downs. From the rapid advance at the beginning of the year to the deep correction in April, investors' hearts are flying up and down with the candlestick chart. Some people say that this is a "healthy adjustment" in the mid-term of the bull market, while others worry that the fangs of the bear market have quietly revealed themselves. This bull market road is not easy.
1. "Make-up lessons" in the historical cycle
The fourth halving of Bitcoin will be completed in April 2024. According to historical laws, the price will often explode 12-18 months after the halving. However, after reaching a high of $109,500 in January 2025, the market ushered in a deep correction of more than 26%, setting the largest retracement in this round of bull market. On-chain data shows that this pullback is different from the past: long-term holders (LTH) did not sell on a large scale, miners' selling pressure was also at a median level, and the market was more like a "technical correction" rather than a panic crash. Standing at the key node of the cycle, Jiaolian used a large amount of space to review and study the "power law model" again. The model reveals an interesting phenomenon: if the historical average speed is followed, Bitcoin should rush to $120,000 at this time, but the reality is that it has pulled back to the 80,000 range. This "make-up lesson after the early run" is not only a digestion of the previous rapid rise, but also makes room for subsequent accumulation of power. Just like the two 40% pullbacks in the bull market in 2017, it seems dangerous, but it actually paves the way for the final crazy sprint. The pull of the second and third forces The continuation of the bull market has never been determined by a single factor, especially the market in 2025.
1. Halving effect and institutional entry
The effect of supply contraction after halving is still fermenting, but the entry of institutional players has changed the rules of the game. The ETF fund flow of giants such as BlackRock and the continuous increase in holdings of MicroStrategy have gradually allowed Bitcoin to break away from the volatility mode of the "retail market". However, institutionalization also means that the market and US stocks are more interconnected-the fluctuation of the Nasdaq index will directly amplify the fluctuation of the currency price.
2. The "seesaw" of macroeconomic policies
The Fed's interest rate cut is like a double-edged sword. The interest rate cut cycle launched in Q4 2024 has released liquidity, but the risk of repeated inflation is looming. In March, the news that the United States suspended additional tariffs on China stimulated a 12% surge in U.S. stocks, but then the Trump administration's 125% tariff stick cooled the market instantly. This policy swing has forced Bitcoin to jump back and forth between the identities of "risk assets" and "safe haven assets." 3. The game between technical aspects and emotions $80,000 has become a watershed between long and short positions. If this support can be maintained, the technical school believes that it will open a channel to $120,000-150,000; but on-chain data shows that the cost price of some short-term holders is concentrated around $83,000, and a rebound to this level may trigger selling pressure. Market sentiment is also like a roller coaster ride - the fear and greed index fell from neutral to panic, and suddenly pulled back to the greed range due to favorable policies. 3. How many thorns are there ahead?
The story of the second half of the bull market is likely to continue with twists and turns.
Risk 1: Macro Black Swan
The escalation of US-China trade frictions, the return of funds caused by the yen interest rate hike, and the probability of a US recession rising to 40%, any one of which may become the "straw that breaks the camel's back". Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 falls by more than 5% in a quarter, Bitcoin has a 73% chance of falling.
Risk 2: Cycle Rhythm Variation
Although most analysts predict that the bull market will continue until Q3-Q4 of 2025, the market dominated by institutions may change the traditional cycle law. For example, the miners’ capitulation index has not yet reached the “bottom signal” of 0.85, suggesting that the adjustment is not over yet; and if the Trump administration’s Bitcoin strategic reserve plan is implemented, it may become a new catalyst.
Risk 3: Liquidity Trap
The US dollar index plummeted to 100, and gold hit a new high of $3,210, reflecting the anxiety of global capital about the traditional system (. If Bitcoin wants to take over this part of the funds, it needs to prove that it is not only "digital gold", but also the ultimate value storage beyond regional politics - but regulatory uncertainty is still a threshold.
Fourth, is it the darkness before dawn, or the prelude to dusk?
The market divergence has never been so obvious. Optimists see the "gold pit": Bitcoin's valuation is more reasonable after the correction, and the return of ETF funds and the increase in institutional allocation may push Q3 to $150,000-200,000; pessimists are closely watching the risk of "second bottoming out", believing that once the $80,000 defense line is lost, it will slide to $70,000 or even lower. The power law model provides another perspective: if Bitcoin returns to its historical average trajectory, it may converge at $100,000 in July and August, opening the bull market. But as Jiaolian said, "Any well-known model will fail due to reflexivity" - the degree of market madness ultimately depends on the contest between human greed and fear. The last maxim Bitcoin's bull market has never been a straight line. The ban by five ministries in 2013, the suspension of ICO in 2017, and the withdrawal of mining farms in 2021, each seemingly fatal blow eventually became the starting point of a new cycle. The story of 2025 may just be in line with the old saying: "Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in doubt, mature in optimism, and die in fanaticism." At present, it is walking on the tightrope of "skepticism" and "optimism".
For ordinary small investors, perhaps they should remember: adding positions when the market falls is just the beginning, and holding on to the big cake is the real practice. After all, in the world of Bitcoin, living longer is more important than running faster.
Brian
Weiliang
Miyuki
Alex