Author: Cathie Wood, CEO of HashKey Capital, Head of HashKey Singapore, and CEO and Chief Investment Officer of ARK Invest
DC: Good morning, everyone! (For today's roundtable discussion) I feel a little pressure, but I am also very happy and excited. I am from HashKey Capital. Our company is a first-line institutional investor in the Web3 industry, with an asset management scale (AUM) of over US$1 billion and more than 500 projects invested. We officially started business in Singapore in 2015.
Today's roundtable we invited Cathie Wood, who has many years of experience in the investment field. We are very happy that she can join us. Before we go into the discussion, I would like to ask Cathie, do you want to say hello to everyone?
Cathie Wood: I am very happy to participate in today's roundtable discussion. It is a pity that I cannot be there in person, but I am very honored to be invited to participate in today's conference. I just heard a lot of Hong Kong officials and important leaders talk, which inspired me a lot. I hope I can bring you some views and perspectives from the United States today.
DC: The guests invited today are experts from the blockchain ecosystem and financial technology fields. Cathie will give us predictions on the mainstream trends and the latest trends.
I would like to ask, what is the general direction of Ark Investment in the past few years? How will it affect a single business or individual in the blockchain in the future?
Cathie Wood: This is a big question. In the past few years, we can see that Bitcoin and blockchain technology have gradually matured. I think this is a very grand concept. Why do I say this is a very big concept? Because the Internet financial system from the perspective of Bitcoin is interrelated, and the entire system was not considered in the early days of the Internet in 1990.
Now all aspects of E-commerce and financial systems have begun to be affected by Web3. The most important impact we see at present is that many developments are still in a very early stage. It is a market that needs to be developed by the world. It is cross-border and will touch everyone. As long as you have an Internet connection, you can become a member.
What is very exciting now is that (Web3) has already taken shape, such as the promotion of generative AI, similar to the inventions of the last century such as telephone and television. Through technology, we can greatly increase production capacity and income, and there will be a better way to live. Everyone can have a better way to enjoy life and private time, so that everyone can be more efficient when they are awake.
From 30% to 40% in 2010, we will make a better configuration in the next 5-10 years. Digital assets have gradually become mainstream in the past few years. In addition to Bitcoin, there are other "digital assets" that can not only do better in bull markets, but also help us hedge risks. In the past, regional banks did not perform so well during crises, but Bitcoin grew by 40%. This year, we have seen that the currencies of developing countries have depreciated and become less and less valuable, but the value of Bitcoin has continued to rise. More people around the world have understood the true meaning of Bitcoin, and (Bitcoin) has the characteristics of being very resistant to pressure and depreciation.
DC: Next, let's continue to talk about AI. AI is now a very hot topic in Silicon Valley and has also attracted widespread attention in Hong Kong.
How do you think AI will be integrated into the blockchain through technology in the future, and what impact will it have on Web3?
Cathie Wood: Your question is very good. We have a Bitcoin brainstorming event every month. When talking about the integration of AI and Bitcoin, we also did a podcast sharing. We think everyone will learn the so-called Internet economy, whether it is Uber or Airbnb, many of them have landed and blossomed in Asia. In the future, everyone will gradually see its benefits, especially for developing countries, such as Africa, it will bring very rapid changes.
At the same time, we also see that blockchain technology and games will be driven and promoted by AI technology to a greater extent. This is a very interesting field. A few days ago, I saw in the news about Sony's investment in games and Polygon's investment in Blockchain. It can be seen that more and more funds will be injected into this field.
For example, NFL's NFLRials and Polkadot, there will be more and more game projects that integrate AI technology and blockchain technology to create more interesting products. NVIDIA was very serious about this in 2014. You can see that NVIDIA's GPU and Gaming integration have already had successful cases. I am very confident that it will definitely be the main area of development in the future.
The core spirit of AI is to give us faster processing power. Games are always at the forefront of the times. The results reflected in the game field are just around the corner.
I attended a very famous conference before, at Bitcoin Miami, and talked about the future. More and more people will invest in the virtual market and combine it with existing creativity, rather than just purely doing virtual currency transactions. In "F1", we can see that more and more blockchain technologies will be injected into it, and more and more users will join us.
DC: Now let's turn back to virtual assets. Congratulations again on the successful listing of ArkInvest's Bitcoin Spot ETF. What do you think is the most important milestone for the digital asset ETF industry? ETF exceeding US$5 billion? Or are there any clear growth indicators that can serve as milestones?
Cathie Wood：A lot of people are surprised that trading has been possible in Europe in the past five years, but they have never had a sudden surge like the United States. There are always a lot of dramatic events in the United States. As you all know, there have been recent lawsuits in the United States. From a regulatory perspective, the SEC and other US regulatory agencies are very resistant whenever they come across Crypto or virtual things. So the lawsuit has allowed us to take a big step forward, slowly making US regulators understand that virtual currencies and Bitcoin can be traded safely, and to a certain extent can be regulated and traded safely. This time they approved a total of 11 ETF projects, which has never happened before and is also the first time in history. So we began to do our best in marketing and investor education, and provide investors with more educational training so that they can better understand how to operate in it.
For example, in the United States, many customers have begun to realize that even completely different asset categories can be invested, and more and more institutions and investors are willing to put money in, because this asset field can be hedged with other fields and is not linked. Of course, Bitcoin also has risks, and there are bull and bear markets, but unlike other currencies (gold) that can be linked to many factors, how can Bitcoin be independent and have its own trend? Because it has asset independence, if you put it in an asset commodity portfolio, because it is not linked to other things, you can increase the asset return rate and share more risks in this way.
For low-linked products, some American investors are very interested and are willing to try.
DC: Yes, I am very happy that there is an open and transparent government in Hong Kong to lead the development of the industry and provide many good policies. I would like to hear your suggestions. What suggestions do you have for the Asian Web3 community? What suggestions do you have for regulators, investment institutions, and the Asian and Hong Kong markets? Cathie Wood: I think you are amazing. Hong Kong's regulatory agencies, such as the SFC, have done a great job. They have provided a comprehensive management framework that allows virtual assets to be traded, and there are many methods and mechanisms for institutional supervision. Regulatory transparency is crucial to the development of the industry and technology, and it also gives technology more confidence. Hong Kong is very different from the United States. Hong Kong is developing much faster. I often talk about this at global financial conferences. It can be said that in terms of policy, Hong Kong is a "leader". It encourages the development of innovative technology and the investment of entrepreneurs. The system of cooperation with the government has provided institutions with a good model and example. Even though there are many uncertainties in the United States, we can see in Hong Kong how to tokenize many asset currencies and how to respond to market demand very quickly. It is a very good reference for us. Hong Kong's regulatory agencies have really played a very good leading, leading and exemplary role, and have also allowed companies to develop (business) globally with such confidence. I am very happy and congratulate Hong Kong on its development.
Before I started, I talked about my admiration and heard other Hong Kong officials put forward very good policies. It is very good for us to learn, which is very important and I really mean it, because a healthy and stable environment is crucial for the development of innovative technology industries, investors, and consumer protection.
I also encourage the United States to follow suit. The United States is currently facing regulatory uncertainty and talent overflow in the blockchain field. If regulators can treat practitioners better, give them more clarity and more freedom, we will see better results.
My suggestion is to use your experience in regulation to provide entrepreneurs with better opportunities to expand globally.
DC: Thank you, Cathie. Finally, I will ask a question worth "million dollars", which is also a question that everyone here is concerned about. How will the price of Bitcoin develop? I have heard a lot of numerical predictions and would like to hear your opinion. Some people say $1.5 million, some say $2.3 million, and some say $3.8 million per Bitcoin. Cathie, what is your current prediction? How long will the timeline be?
Cathie Wood: I have been asked this question from different angles. The result of our analysis from multiple angles is that Bitcoin will rise to $1.5 million in 2030. This price prediction comes from a survey of institutions, using the floating ratio and volatility analysis. The previous prediction for the price of Bitcoin in 2030 was $600,000, but the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF will push the price of Bitcoin to $1.5 million in 2030.
If I gave you this number last year, it might have been closer to $600,000. Why add the number of $600,000 to $1.5 million? Because the SEC has given the "green light" and approved the issuance of spot Bitcoin ETFs for mainstream institutions. If you allocate assets according to modern portfolio theory, 5% of assets allocated to Bitcoin will give us an estimated figure of $1.5 million, because we think investment institutions will move in this direction.
DC: Thank you Cathie for letting everyone know the price estimate of $1.5 million per Bitcoin. The above is the last part of the fireside conversation. Thank you Cathie for providing us with insightful and interesting live discussions. Goodbye, and applause to Cathie again.
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