Seeing the essence through the phenomenon: This round of bull market is really different

By Ben Fairbank

Like a drunk, the crypto market stumbles into 2025 on the heels of a late-2024 bull run that is both familiar and fundamentally alien.

Headlines of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 in late 2024, Memecoin’s slot-like surge, and Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance have ignited a Beeple-like feast that is both fascinating and unsettling.

Yet beneath the hype, this cycle is a messy hodgepodge of leveraged mania, institutional restraint, and macroeconomic gambles that could propel markets or derail them.

This isn’t the retail-driven FOMO of 2021, it’s a different beast, and the data bears out the chaos.

This bull run is unprecedented, and some controversial truths may make you rethink your position at the table.

Leveraged Trading: From Tools to Casino Drugs, Memecoin Dealers Are Winning

Leveraged trading isn’t new, but the scale of it today is astounding.

In the 2021 bull run, leveragewas just the side dish, but now it’s the main course, mixed with the Memecoin craziness. Platforms like Binance and Bybit report a surge in leveraged trading, with Binance alone seeing $1.2 trillion in perpetual futures trading in the fourth quarter of 2024, up 60% from its 2021 peak. Memecoin, the fallen darling of these crypto casinos, is the source of a spark that’s more fiery than the fuse that set off the Los Angeles wildfires. A 2025 survey by Security.org found that 68% of Memecoin traders admitted to losing money since entering the market, but they keep adding 50x and 100x leverage like a dog-headed influencer hoping to win the lottery. Why? Because Dogecoin’s $0.73 (market cap of over $100 billion) and TRUMP’s $15 billion peak in January 2025 have turned trading into a dopamine factory.

This isn’t rational speculation, it’s slot machines dressed up in blockchain technology, where the house always wins.We hear similar stories every day, like Chump, a 27-year-old trader who told Business Insider, “I like the thrill of watching the numbers go up.” He made $10,000 on Memecoin trades, but he was one of the lucky ones. Why are $10,000 trades worth reporting? Because they attract people who start small and bet big. Yet most people are losing money, and the leverage craze has made this bull market like a circus on steroids.

Position Sizing: Crypto Leverage Math Overturns Traditional Thinking

Things get even crazier, with leverage position sizing in crypto markets quoted at full risk, a mind-bending scenario not seen in traditional markets. A $4 million trade with 50x leverage? That’s $200 million in market exposure. In stocks or forex, you’d only report $4 million in margin, not the amplified bet. This exaggerates appearances and amplifies risk. Galaxy Research estimates that the notional value of the average leveraged position size in 2025 will be $5.2 million, up from $1.8 million in 2021. This is a huge leap, and the surge in this data has been driven by platforms throwing 100x leverage to retail investors like candy. It’s sensible for traditional markets to limit leverage to 10x, and the “full exposure” strategy in crypto markets is a marketing gimmick that turns traders into reckless gamblers. When Trump’s big player cashed out $109 million in two days (New York Times, February 2025), it wasn’t a trick, it was a leveraged lottery ticket. On the other hand, the counterparty to that trade lost $2 billion. This is not investing, I’ve said it many times before, this is a zero-sum bloodbath, and the data proves it’s bigger and uglier than ever.

Institutions: Sit tight while the circus burns

Institutional investors, the so-called “smart money,” are not fooling around in this leveraged circus. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holds 550,000 BTC, and hedge funds such as Millennium subscribed to $36 billion in Bitcoin ETPs in 2024 (Galaxy, 2025). But they are not chasing the 50x surge in Memecoin. Coinbase Institutional’s report points out that 82% of institutional crypto asset allocations in 2025 are long-term holdings, concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and perhaps Solana, focusing on the “strategic reserve” narrative rather than the depravity of short-term trading.

Unlike retail investors who panic sell at every dip, institutions are gradually building positions. Why? Trump's Bitcoin reserve rhetoric and ETF approvals allow them to focus on the long-term prospects of 5-10 years, rather than a quick doubling.

Bitcoin Opportunity Fund's James Lavish said it well at the 2024 New Orleans Investment Conference: "Bitcoin's shift from a speculative asset to a strategic asset" is real, and institutions are betting that it will surpass gold (currently about 11% of gold's market value, changing every day). They will ride this bull run, but they will not be destroyed on leverage, which is the privilege of retail investors.

Trump’s Economic Gamble: Recession Coin Toss Meets Crypto’s Big Moment

Fast forward to mid-2025, the U.S. economy is on thin ice, and Trump is holding a balancing pole. An October 2024 report by Picton Mahoney estimated a 75% chance of recession, citing a non-inverted yield curve, rising bankruptcies, and a manufacturing slump.

Trump’s response? Spending cuts, big tariffs, and a big bet on deregulation.It’s a gamble that could either crash the dollar or ignite a crypto supernova. If inflation surges (core CPI is already at 3.1%, above the Fed’s 2% target), Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative will get rocket fuel. With weird timing, InvestingHaven’s timeline analysis predicts a massive bull run to peak mid-year (breakout in March-April 2025). But if Trump’s tariffs stifle growth and retail wallets are empty, the bull run could stall. The data is mixed, with a Security.org survey showing that 60% of crypto-aware Americans think Trump’s return is good for crypto, but a portion remain skeptical of its security. This isn’t a simple catalyst, but a messy coin toss with global ripples.

Tariff Hedge or Crash: Crypto's Recession Script

Will Trump's tariffs spark a crypto hedging boom, hinder the bull market, or make digital assets the ultimate safe haven? The data leans towards the latter.

Coincub predicts that stablecoin daily trading volume will reach $300-400 billion by the end of 2025, up from $100 billion in November 2024, as companies hedge foreign exchange risks. Tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs, like real estate, art, bonds) is exploding, with market value expected to jump from $2.81 billion in 2023 to $9.82 billion in 2030 (Exploding Topics). Why? Liquidity and inflation protection. Crypto’s decoupling from the stock market (correlation fell to 0.3 in Q1 2025, according to Coinbase) makes it a magnet for capital flight if the US economy stumbles. But the point is, retail investors are exhausted, and you and I know it. Economic stagnation could kill the FOMO fuel needed for past bull markets. This could be the first bull market where institutions, not retail investors, set the pace, which is mind-boggling.

The Road to Redemption for Retail Investors: Greed, Regret, and Empty Pockets

Talking to crypto veterans, the atmosphere is a mixture of PTSD and cautious hope. Many people got greedy in 2021, experienced the crash, and now just want to "get their money back."

Some people have never returned after cashing out at the peak of 2021. I call them smart people. Others are still trading MeMe every day, chasing small wins of $500, while admitting that it is "gambling addiction."

HODLFM's poll in 2025 found that 73% of long-term holders hope to at least get their money back in this cycle, but 40% have not entered the market since the 2022bear market. The data is suffocating.

The truth is, retail investors have no money. The money for the bull market in 2021 is gone, and the household savings rate has fallen to 4.9% (Fed data), down from 7.5% before the epidemic. If this bull market is ignited, it is not due to the FOMO of parents, but institutional funds. Retail investors will either take a ride or be left behind. A purely institutional-driven bull market? Not only possible, but also very likely to be a reality.

Gambling can't save us: where is the real fuel?

Desperation drives traders to leverage and Memecoin, but it's not enough.

The $2.2 billion hacker loss in 2024 and the 19% of crypto holders being blocked from withdrawing fundsare both sending out voices of distrust. Betting on MeMe won’t inject fresh capital into the market, it’s just rearranging deck chair numbers on the Titanic.

New money has to come from somewhere, like ETFs (Galaxy’s $250 billion AUM forecast), corporate coffers (MicroStrategy style), or countries (Trump’s 207,000 BTC reserve plan). Without these, this bull run is just a mirage. Let’s be realistic, right? So we can get ahead of the curve and make money.

Open Creator Economy: AI’s Global Bazaar in a Recession

AIis rewriting the rules of the game, and thisbull runcould give rise to an open creator economy that transcends national boundaries.On-chain AI agents are surging, with Funds Society predicting 1 million by 2025, involved in trading, gaming, and building decentralized platforms.

What to trade in a recession? Data suggests: luxury goods (art NFTs up 45% in 2024), essential services (tokenized medical credits), and speculative assets (yes, Memecoin again). AI makes it scalable, think of teenage traders tokenizing TikTok influencers. It’s happening, I’m sure of it.

But it’s not all rosy. Masa’s analysis points toAPIlimitationsand data bottlenecks that could hamper growth. If successful, thisbull runwill be a global wealth transfer, not just a US party. If unsuccessful, we’re back to PVP within the circle.

Wealth Transfer: Patience Wins, Impatience Bleeds

Markets are Darwinian, and patience takes wealth from the impatient.

This bull run will see wealth shift from leveraged retail investors to steady investors. The cycle begins and ends with the same narrative, with Memecoin fading and coming back.

InvestingHaven predicts that Dogecoin and Shiba Inu will rebound after the MeMe craze peaks again. But the data is clear, 68% of Memecoin traders lose money.

Who are the winners? Institutions and veterans who quietly build positions.

Summary: Find your position when the music stops

This bull market is a mess, with crazy leverage, institutional restraint, Trump's wild bets, and the upcoming creator economy.

It's different because retail investors are bankrupt, institutions are restrained, and the world is watching an economic experiment that may make or break the United States.

The data screams volatility, but it also contains opportunities.  Choose your position calmly and patiently, when the music can be exited, only the patient will stay.   

Original title: Why This Bull Run Is Different: A Hard-Hitting Look at the Crypto Casino, Institutional Power, and the Global Economic Gamble 
Original link: bit.ly/3DLqLoO
Original author: Ben Fairbank
Translation: Vernacular Blockchain