Several related issues regarding the reopening of the US government

Editor's Note: There are new developments in the US government shutdown this morning. We are updating four related questions

1. What are the latest developments in the government shutdown?

On the evening of November 9th, Eastern Time, with the support of at least 8 Democrats, the Senate held a procedural vote (Cloture vote, which ends the lengthy debate once passed) on its revised temporary funding bill (CR). It has basically obtained the 60 votes needed and can proceed to the full Senate vote.

2. What is the future timeline?

1) The Senate is expected to vote on the CR (Revision of the Civil Code) on Monday (November 10th). Since only a simple majority (51 votes) is needed for passage, it is certain to pass. 2) Because the Senate's CR is a modification of the House version, it needs to be sent back to the House for a second vote, which is expected to take place on Tuesday or Wednesday. 3) After passing the House, it will be sent to Trump for signature, and the government shutdown is expected to end as early as mid-week. 3. What does the current Senate version of the CR include? What compromises have been made by both parties? The Senate version of the CR includes two parts: one long and one short. 1) Short-term funding will be provided to the vast majority of government departments until January 30, 2026. The appropriations bill will then need to be negotiated again. 2) Long-term funding will be provided to three categories of departments for one fiscal year, until the end of the 2026 fiscal year (i.e., September 30). These departments include the Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Military Construction Department, and Congress and its support agencies. Since the Food Stamp Program (SNAP) is a welfare program under the Department of Agriculture, the SNAP funding, which was interrupted on November 1, will also be extended to the end of September 2026. Concessions made by Senate Republicans: First, they agreed to hold a vote in mid-December on the extension of subsidies related to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which Democrats had been demanding, allowing Democrats to choose the specific form of the bill. However, it's important to note that this is only a commitment to vote, not a guarantee of passage. Second, they agreed to completely rescind the Trump administration's mass layoffs of federal employees during the shutdown and guarantee that all federal workers will receive full compensation for the period of the shutdown, although the latter is part of the standard shutdown end agreement. Concessions made by Senate Democrats: They abandoned their demand to directly include the extension of healthcare subsidies in the Comprehensive Health Response (CR) and agreed to postpone the vote until December. Since the Democrats need 60 votes to pass the December vote, it can be assumed that the extension of ACA subsidies is unlikely to pass. From the content of the compromises made by both sides and the opposition from Senate and House Minority Leaders Schumer and Jeffries, it can be seen that the Republicans retained a "relatively clean" CR, while the Democrats made more substantial concessions in the agreement. 4. How will the non-farm payroll and CPI data be released after the government reopens? Currently, the non-farm payroll data for September and October has not been released. The September sample has been collected, but the October sample was not collected at all due to the government shutdown and the BLS holiday. Currently, it appears highly likely that the September non-farm payroll data will be released in late November or December, but there is uncertainty regarding the release of the October data. The Black-Scholes Survey (BLS) may ask survey participants to "recall" the employment situation during the 12 weeks of October, but this will inevitably affect data quality; alternatively, it may skip the October non-farm payroll data altogether and only release the September and November employment data. Regarding the CPI, the September CPI was released on October 24th. Because approximately two-thirds of the CPI data relies on field data collection, and this work completely ceased during the shutdown, the October CPI data may require the use of alternative estimation methods to fill in missing data (affecting data quality) or may be canceled altogether.