Original author: Alvis, MarsBit

"February 20, 2025 16:00, this time will be written into the history of encryption - either it is the coronation moment of Pi Network to the top of the "civilian blockchain", or it is the starting point of the bursting of the largest air coin bubble in history."  

Six years ago, Stanford Ph.D. Nicolas Kokkalis used a mobile phone App A social experiment has been launched: users can "mine" by clicking a button once a day, without the need for professional mining machines, no electricity consumption, and zero cost. Today, this experiment has come to an end - Pi Network announced that the Open Network will be officially launched at 16:00 Beijing time on February 20, 2025, when Pi coins will be interconnected with external systems for the first time. Behind the data are two different worlds: - Fanatical supporters: 50 million users worldwide, more than 18 million people have passed KYC verification, and merchants in Taiwan, China even use Pi coins to buy milk tea and pay rent; - Skeptics: The main network has been delayed for 6 years, tokens cannot be traded, and the "IOU futures" listed on the exchange are accused of hyping up the air.  

In this vortex of controversy, is Pi Network a technological revolution or a carefully designed capital game? This article will use the latest data and ecological progress to dismantle its value logic and potential risks.  

1. Positive Outlook: Three Breakthrough Points for Popularizing Blockchain  

1. User Base: The "Traffic Nuclear Bomb" that Crushes Traditional Public Chains  

Pi Network has created the largest user network in the history of encryption:  

- 50 million registered users, far exceeding Ethereum (less than 5 million active users among 120 million addresses);  

- 18 million KYC-certified users, of which more than 8 million have been migrated to the closed mainnet, and it is expected to exceed the 10 million migration target before February 20;  

- Dominance in Asia: South Korea 134 10,000 users exceed the number of local users of Binance, and the community activity in Vietnam and the Philippines ranks among the top three in the world. This user scale gives it a natural ecological incubation ability - even if only 1% of users participate in development, it can give birth to 50,000 DApps (currently there are only 80 main network applications).  

2. Technology Democratization: Integration of Mobile Mining and Stellar Consensus  

Pi Network attempts to lower the threshold of blockchain with two major innovations:  

- Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP): Abandoning Bitcoin's energy-intensive PoW, energy-saving consensus is achieved through the Federated Byzantine Agreement (FBA), and mobile phones can participate in verification;  

- Hierarchical role system: From "pioneer" (daily sign-in mining) to "node" (running a full node), users get tokens according to their contributions, forming a bottom-up governance structure.  

This design allows blockchain to reach non-technical people for the first time - housewives, students, and retired elderly people can all participate, breaking the industry barrier of "geek exclusive".  

3. Real-world applications: from Taiwanese milk tea shops to cross-border payments  

Although the mainnet is not open, Pi Network has explored unique offline scenarios:  

- Taiwan business district experiment: more than 200 merchants accept Pi coins for payment, from catering to real estate rentals, 1 Pi≈25-30 New Taiwan dollars (about 0.8-1 US dollars);  

- Cross-border remittance test: Filipino workers transfer money to their hometowns through Pi wallets, and the handling fee is only 1/10 of that of traditional banks;  

- Developer incentives: 80 mainnet applications cover education, medical care, and logistics. For example, "Pi Health" uses anonymous medical data to train AI diagnostic models.  

If the open network runs smoothly, these scenarios may be upgraded from marginal experiments to global inclusive financial infrastructure.  

2. Negative controversy: trust deficit and valuation bubble  

1. Six-year history of delays: the trust crisis of crying wolf  

Pi Network's mainnet schedule is a "textbook of procrastination".

Launched in 2019, Pi Network initially supported smartphone-based cryptocurrency mining and went through multiple stages, including Testnet, node plan, and closed mainnet. Currently, the project is in the transition stage to an open network and is expected to migrate to the mainnet in early 2025.

· March 14, 2019: Official Launch - Pi Network was officially launched on Pi Day (March 14), named after the mathematical constant π (3.14). The initial version of the mobile app allows users (called "Pioneers") to mine Pi cryptocurrency directly from their smartphones.

· March 14, 2020: Testnet Phase Launch - On the first anniversary of Pi Network, the project entered the Testnet phase, marking an important step towards decentralization. This phase supports the deployment of globally distributed nodes, enabling community developers to test blockchains and create applications using Test-Pi.

· End of 2020: Node Program Introduction - Pi Network launched the Node Program, allowing users to run network nodes on personal computers. This move enhances Pioneers' contributions to network security and transaction verification, and promotes decentralized development.

· December 2021: Closed Mainnet Launch - Pi Network enters the closed mainnet phase, where the mainnet is officially launched but is still protected by a firewall, blocking external connections. During this period, users can complete KYC (identity verification) and migrate Pi to the live mainnet, while the community builds applications and utilities within the closed network.

· October 2023: Roadmap Release - The Pi core team publishes a milestone-based roadmap detailing past achievements, current projects, and future plans. This roadmap increases transparency and outlines key steps towards an open mainnet.

· December 2024: Open Network Update - The Pi Network team announced that the open mainnet launch, originally scheduled for the end of 2024, will be postponed to the first quarter of 2025. This decision is intended to allow more users to complete KYC certification and migrate their tokens to the mainnet to ensure a more inclusive and secure ecosystem.

· January 2025: Mainnet Migration Progress - As of January 2025, Pi Network has more than 18 million users who have completed KYC certification, of which more than 8 million users have migrated their tokens to the mainnet. The team extended the grace period for KYC and mainnet migration to January 31 to further support the transition.

Although the team attributed the delay to KYC audits and ecosystem construction, the community questioned its deliberate delay to maintain token scarcity.

2. Doubts about the 100 billion valuation: a fatal trap after full dilution  

Based on the maximum supply of 100 billion pieces, if Pi coin reaches $1, its fully diluted valuation (FDV) will be as high as $100 billion - more than one-third of Ethereum's current market value (US$315 billion). But this faces two major paradoxes:  

- Black hole of circulation: Currently, only 2 billion Pi have been migrated to the main network, and the remaining 98 billion need to be gradually released through mining. If the team controls the unlocking rhythm, it may trigger a panic of selling pressure;  

- Insufficient application scenarios: Most of the existing 80 DApps are tool applications, lacking value capture scenarios such as DeFi and NFT, and the ecological hematopoietic ability is questionable.  

3. Regulation and Privacy: A Double-edged Sword of Compliance  

Pi Network's compliance strategy has hidden risks:  

- Excessive KYC collection: Users need to submit ID cards, facial recognition, and proof of residence, which far exceeds the requirements of conventional projects and poses a risk of data leakage;  

- Risk of regulatory encirclement: If the SEC determines that Pi coins are securities (similar to the XRP lawsuit), its US ecosystem may collapse instantly.  

III. Open network launch: Four key verification indicators  

February 20, 2025 is not only a technical milestone, but also a touchstone of Pi Network's value. The following four major indicators will determine its success or failure: 1. Exchange liquidity test - Real trading volume: If mainstream exchanges such as HTX and Binance open Pi coin spot trading, it is necessary to observe whether there is a "collapse as soon as it goes online"; - Price anchoring: There is a huge difference between the current Taiwan P2P price (about US$1) and the IOU futures price (US$48.3), and the direction of the price difference convergence indicates market confidence.  

2. Node decentralization  

- Distribution of verification nodes: If the top 10 nodes control more than 50% of the computing power, it will violate the original intention of "civilian blockchain";  

- Anti-censorship ability: Can the open network resist government-level firewall blockade, especially in sensitive areas such as Southeast Asia.  

3. Developer migration tide  

- DApp explosion speed: Can the main network applications exceed 500 in the next 3 months, and will at least one phenomenal application appear;  

- Cross-chain interoperability: The progress of asset bridging with Ethereum and Solana determines whether it can be integrated into the mainstream ecology.  

4. Token Economic Model  

- Inflation control: whether the mining release speed will lead to hyperinflation, refer to the market value collapse of Helium due to over-issuance of tokens;  

- Burning mechanism: the proportion of in-application handling fees destroyed determines whether Pi coin can enter a deflationary cycle.  

IV. Future deduction: three possible scenarios  

Scenario 1: Utopia comes true (probability 30%)  

- Key assumptions: zero failures on the main network, average daily trading volume of exchanges exceeding US$1 billion, and the emergence of DApps with millions of users;  

- Price prediction: Pi coin will stabilize at US$5, FDV will reach US$500 billion, ranking among the top five in terms of crypto market value;  

- Social impact: It will become an inclusive financial infrastructure in developing countries and shake the hegemony of SWIFT.  

Scenario 2: Moderate Growth (Probability 50%)  

- Key assumptions: The technology is stable but the application is mediocre, and the annual inflation rate is controlled within 15%;  

- Price prediction: Pi coin fluctuates between 0.5-2 US dollars, and its market value is equivalent to Dogecoin (about 30 billion US dollars);  

- Social impact: Maintain the status of a regional payment tool, similar to Vietnam's MoMo e-wallet.  

Scenario 3: Bubble burst (probability 20%)  

- Key assumptions: mainnet downtime, regulatory crackdown, team selling tokens;  

- Price prediction: Pi coin plummets to below $0.1, and the community defends rights on a large scale;  

- Social impact: triggering a global trust crisis in the "zero-cost mining" model.  

V. Conclusion: A social experiment about blockchain belief  

The essence of Pi Network is a social collaboration experiment - it attracts a large number of users with minimalist interactions, builds community consensus with delayed gratification, and challenges elitism with civilian narratives. Its success or failure is not only related to the price of tokens, but also will verify two ultimate propositions: 1. Does blockchain need a technical threshold? If 50 million new users can create a prosperous ecosystem, large-scale adoption of Web3 will not be far away; 2. Does value have to come from scarcity? If the Pi coin with zero-cost mining is recognized by the market, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative may be challenged. Personal opinion: The launch of Pi Network's open network is the most suspenseful crypto event in 2025. Its huge user base and real-world application scenarios have subversive potential, but the six-year history of delay and valuation bubble are like the sword of Damocles. In the short term, price fluctuations may occur after the mainnet is launched due to the release of liquidity; in the long term, its fate depends on whether it can evolve from a "social fission artifact" to a "value creation engine." If the team can restrain greed and focus on the ecosystem, Pi coin may really become the "civilian currency" in the crypto world; if it repeats the mistakes of the Ponzi scheme, this experiment will become the most expensive lesson in the history of blockchain.