Standard Chartered Bank: BTC may rise to more than $73,000 on Election Day

Author: Brian McGleenon, The block; Compiler: Tao Zhu, Golden Finance

• Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick expects Bitcoin to re-touch its all-time high above $73,000 on the day of the U.S. presidential election against the U.S. dollar.

• Kendrick s prediction is based on Bitcoin derivatives and trading volume indicators.

Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that Bitcoin could approach its all-time high of $73,000 on November 5, the day of the U.S. presidential election. His prediction is based on an analysis of Bitcoin derivatives and trading volume indicators.

“We use daily Bitcoin volume levels, among other things, to estimate post-election price action. Our base case is for a Bitcoin price of around $73,000 on Election Day,” Kendrick said in an email on Thursday.

He also noted that if Donald Trump wins the presidency, option breakevens suggest options could rise by around 4% once the election results are known, with total gains of around 10% over the next few days.

The analyst stressed that options market dynamics offer insight into initial post-election price action, with a large amount of open interest in BTC call options expiring on Dec. 27 at an $80,000 strike price suggesting Bitcoin will move quickly toward that level.

A Republican sweep of Congress could push prices higher

"If the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end target for Bitcoin could rise to $125,000," he said. Conversely, Kendrick said that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin could initially fall, but expects Bitcoin to reach around $75,000 by the end of 2024.

Kendrick noted that recent trading activity is a positive indicator for Bitcoin's price.

“Bitcoin’s price has risen in recent weeks, coinciding with other trades popular with Trump supporters,” he wrote. “Trump’s odds of winning are currently 59% according to RealClearPolitics, while specific markets such as Polymarket suggest a 75% chance of a Republican sweep if Trump wins.”

Standard Chartered Bank’s global head of digital assets research added that the bitcoin price fell to a local low of $65,200 on Wednesday, likely for the last time before the U.S. presidential election.