Summary of Polymarket's profit methods

I've been researching web3 binary prediction markets for a few days, with the goal of making money. Building on my previous research, today I'll take a deep dive into the various ways Poly can make money. On Poly, the combination of yes and no for an event always equals 1 unit, meaning the probability is the price. The lifecycle of a binary prediction event token consists of three stages: minting, trading, and redemption. When a platform first announces a binary prediction event, there are no tradable tokens in circulation. Market makers can spend 100 units on the platform to mint 100 yes and 100 no tokens, creating a tradable token market. When the event result comes out, if the result is yes, then no will be reset to zero, and the smart contract will redeem these 100 yeses, each worth 1u, and the token's life cycle ends.

(Button on poly to split 1u into 1yes + 1no)

The above is just the most simplified process. In fact, as long as it is within the event cycle, anyone can use 1u to mint one yes and one no at any time, and then buy and sell to make a profit from the difference, and can redeem it at any time. Therefore, the first way to make money on Poly is to be a market maker. You make money by earning the difference between buying and selling and the platform's liquidity incentive plan (Poly charges the winning party 2% of the profit after each binary event. The vast majority of this profit goes directly to the market maker who provides liquidity for the market, and the Poly platform only collects less than 0.5% of the profit as operational settlement. Poly also has a special liquidity incentive plan). The second way to make money on Poly is to become a highly knowledgeable player in a certain field. Experts in a particular field can profit from users with less knowledge by achieving a prediction success rate exceeding 50%, commonly known as profiting from high knowledge combined with expertise. There's another way to make money: arbitrage. The essence of arbitrage is to correct market errors. Because the probability on the poly is the price, if the poly is greater than 1 (for example, 1.1), you can mint 1 unit into 1 yes + 1 no, then sell it on the market for a profit of 0.1 unit. If it's less than 1, for example, if yes equals 0.8 and no equals 0.1, you can spend 0.9 unit to buy one yes and one no, then combine the 1 yes + 1 no into 1 unit, ultimately earning 0.1 unit. After a few days of research, I've gained a general understanding of how to make money in the prediction market and its basic mechanisms. However, I feel that to make money in this market, aside from the highly cognitive player method, all other methods require scripting, so I'll likely spend the next few days researching how to use its API for trading. In summary, there are four ways to make money on Poly: market makers, highly cognitive players, arbitrageurs, and neimu players. Which one are you?