The actors are in place, and the Federal Reserve drama is about to begin.

On the eve of the Federal Reserve's key interest rate decision this week, two personnel changes added drama to a highly nervous market.

According to CCTV, on September 15th local time, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia rejected the U.S. Department of Justice's emergency application and upheld the lower court's temporary injunction blocking Trump's removal of Lisa Cook.

This means Cook will be able to attend this week's Federal Reserve meeting.

Almost at the same time, according to CCTV News, the Senate approved Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by a narrow margin of 48 to 47. With a quick push from Republicans, Miran is expected to take up his new post on Tuesday morning, possibly just in time for this week's Federal Reserve meeting. With a White House-backed candidate successfully elected to the Federal Reserve Board, and a current board member facing presidential pressure to fire him having secured his voting rights through a court ruling, the political battle over central bank independence has spilled directly into the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision-making table, adding further uncertainty to the already highly anticipated interest rate decision. While the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the addition of two voting members with contrasting views makes the ultimate outcome unpredictable.

Some analysts even believe that

the FOMC may see a rare "four-way melee," posing a major challenge to market expectations.

Cook was allowed to remain in office, but her voting position remains a mystery

Cook's retention adds the greatest uncertainty to this meeting. Last month, facing charges of mortgage fraud by falsely reporting a primary residence, Cook filed a lawsuit after Trump took action to remove her.

This lawsuit has become a focal point of growing tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve.

It is worth noting that some analysts have pointed out that

during the Biden administration, Cook was listed as one of the most dovish members of the Federal Reserve's spectrum, tending to support low interest rates.

Benjamin Picton, an analyst at Rabobank, believes that Trump's removal of a dovish official may be intended to prove that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is not a purely "technocratic process" and that its decisions will be influenced by White House selections.

Another radical speculation is thatthis former "super dove" official may unexpectedly vote for a rate hike to demonstrate his independence,especially when other officials vote for a substantial rate cut.If this happens, it will confirm the outside world's concerns that the independence of the Federal Reserve has been damaged. Miran's swift appointment strengthens the rate cut camp. In contrast to Cook's tumultuous journey, Miran's appointment was remarkably swift. Amidst Trump's relentless pressure on the central bank to cut rates, Republicans pushed for the Senate's swift approval of the nomination. Miran's appointment is almost certain to strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC. Analysts believe he will not only vote for a 25 basis point rate cut, but may even join officials like Waller and Bowman in voting for a 50 basis point cut.

Earlier, Miran told senators at a Senate hearing that he would join the Federal Reserve on unpaid leave. This statement was harshly questioned by Democratic lawmakers.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized Miran's temporary leave from the White House to join the Federal Reserve as a threat to the Fed's independence, saying that "his every word and action will be questioned, and people will think he is not an honest broker but a puppet of Trump."

Will there be a "four-way melee"?

Before these changes, the market generally expected Fed officials to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and also gave about a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

Now, with Cook and Miran confirmed to participate in the vote, a "four-way split" voting scenario is being discussed in the market. This may include:

• Big rate cut camp: The "super doves" represented by Miran, Waller, and Bowman may vote for a 50 basis point rate cut.

• The moderate interest rate cut camp: The centrists led by Chairman Powell may vote in favor of the 25 basis point interest rate cut expected by the market.

• The interest rate maintenance camp: Represented by officials such as Goolsbee and Hammack, they may vote to maintain the interest rate unchanged.

• The "wild card" of an unexpected rate hike: Cook may unexpectedly vote for a 25 basis point rate hike in order to counter pressure from the White House.

If this unprecedented "circus-like" outcome really happens,the policy signals sent by the FOMC will be extremely confusing, the immediate reaction of the financial markets will be unpredictable, and all bets may be lost in an instant.