Headline
▌Federal Reserve Ends 2025: 25 BP Rate Cut as Expected
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut at its meeting, in line with market expectations. This brings the total rate cuts this year to 75 basis points.
▌Gemini Receives CFTC Approval to Launch Prediction Market and Plans to Expand to Crypto Derivatives
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has officially granted Gemini Exchange a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, allowing it to launch a prediction market platform called Gemini Titan. Initially, it will offer binary event contracts (yes/no questions). Gemini also stated that it may expand to CFTC-regulated crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts in the future.
Blockchain Applications
▌Polygon Launches Madhugiri Hard Fork, Boosting Throughput by 33%
Polygon has officially activated its latest network upgrade—the Madhugiri hard fork—aimed at accelerating on-chain processing efficiency through performance optimizations. This upgrade reduces block time latency from 2 seconds to 1 second, enabling faster transaction confirmation and an expected overall throughput increase of approximately 33%. Madhugiri integrates several optimizations previously developed for the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade, including enhancements to gas measurement methods and execution processes, allowing the network to better handle higher computational loads. Simultaneously, the hard fork introduces a new transaction type to further optimize the cross-chain interaction structure between Polygon and Ethereum.
**Market News:** Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg has instructed Meta to abandon its open-source artificial intelligence. Sources say Meta fine-tuned its new AI model using Alibaba's Tongyi Big Model. Alibaba (BABA.N) rose over 4% pre-market, while Meta Platforms (META.O) fell over 1%. **Cryptocurrency:** **Wintermute: Crypto Market Liquidity Shows "Circular Reuse" Characteristics** A recent report from digital asset market maker Windemute indicates that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a period of deep consolidation, driven primarily by the circular reuse of liquidity. Market funds are significantly withdrawing from high-risk assets and continuously concentrating on the two leading crypto assets – Bitcoin and Ethereum. This round of strategic capital rotation, beginning in late 2025, indicates that against the backdrop of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, both institutional investors and seasoned retail investors have shifted to a "strategic risk-taking" approach, prioritizing asset quality and liquidity.
▌Tidal Trust Plans to Launch After-Dark Bitcoin ETF
On December 10th, Tidal Trust submitted its application to the U.S. SEC for the first after-dark Bitcoin ETF. According to the registration document, the ETF will buy Bitcoin at the close of the U.S. market and sell it the following day after trading resumes. During the day, the fund's assets will be invested in U.S. Treasury bonds, money market funds, and similar cash instruments.
▌Strategy's daily stock trading volume now surpasses e-commerce giant Amazon
According to market news: the daily trading volume of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy ($MSTR) stock has now surpassed that of e-commerce giant Amazon.
▌State Street and Galaxy to launch tokenized liquidity fund on Solana in 2026
State Street and Galaxy Asset Management announced that they will launch the tokenized liquidity fund SWEEP on Solana in early 2026, providing 24/7 on-chain liquidity management for qualified institutions.
The fund will use PayPal's stablecoin PYUSD as its subscription and redemption tool, with Ondo Finance committing approximately $200 million as initial funding. After its launch, SWEEP will expand to Stellar and Ethereum, utilizing Chainlink technology for cross-chain data and asset processing.
▌He Yi: BNB Airdrop to Users Who Lost Money Due to WeChat Account Theft
Binance co-founder Yi He's WeChat account was recently stolen, causing some users who trusted his WeChat Moments information to suffer losses when purchasing a certain meme coin. Yi He has announced that he will personally allocate a certain amount of BNB to compensate users who incurred losses by trading this meme coin through Binance's keyless wallet and Alpha platform during the period when his account was stolen. The airdrop will be completed within 24 hours.
▌Trump Criticizes Fed's Insufficient Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but for US President Trump, the Fed didn't do enough. On Wednesday afternoon, at a White House event, Trump said that the 25 basis point rate cut was "a rather small number that could have been doubled—at least doubled." He also reiterated his long-standing criticism of Fed Chairman Powell.
▌Dollar's Worst Single-Day Performance Since September After Fed Rate Cut
On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell emphasized labor market risks while downplaying inflation concerns in his speech, causing the dollar to record its worst performance in nearly three months. The dollar index closed down 0.4%, its biggest drop since September 16, after the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.
"Powell's outlook on the labor market is less optimistic than previously predicted," said Alex Cohn, a strategist at Bank of America. He added that the Fed chairman's comments on labor and inflation triggered the dollar's decline. "With the Fed outpacing increasingly hawkish central banks, a weaker dollar should find guidance in bonds and interest rate spreads," said Edward Harrison, a macro strategist. The Federal Reserve has launched its reserve management purchase program, preparing to expand its balance sheet again by buying short-term U.S. Treasury securities to prevent stress in the overnight lending market, which is crucial to the entire financial system. The Fed said it will begin expanding its balance sheet this month by purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills and plans to gradually reduce the pace of new purchases sometime next year. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 22.1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 77.9%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 52%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 7.4%. After reaching a new high in October, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain its upward momentum since late November. Meanwhile, the US labor market has cooled significantly. The US unemployment rate has climbed to around 4%, reaching its highest level in recent years. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series shows that monthly nonfarm payroll growth has slowed from post-pandemic levels to a more modest six-digit increase. Job openings and departures have also declined from their 2021-2022 peaks. Changes in the labor market affect risk appetite and liquidity conditions, and these changes are often reflected in the price movements of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly. If labor market data remains stable while inflation remains high, investors infer that interest rates may remain high for an extended period. If unemployment rises and nonfarm payroll growth slows, the case for interest rate cuts strengthens. Cryptocurrencies are now also traded within the same ecosystem. When strategists discuss the pressures of the labor market on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, they typically describe two overlapping channels. The first is the growth channel. Rising unemployment, slowing hiring, and sluggish wage growth make markets more cautious about future earnings and default risks. In this environment, investors typically reduce the riskiest portions of their portfolios, such as small-cap stocks, volatile assets like Bitcoin, and altcoins. The second is the liquidity and interest rate channel. Similarly weak economic data could trigger investor panic and prompt central banks to adopt looser monetary policies. For Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, the key is that a weak labor market means lower prices, and labor market data helps predict macroeconomic conditions. This data influences growth expectations, interest rate trends, and liquidity, which in turn affect the level of risk investors are willing to take.
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