The investment logic of ORDI, the leading inscription

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

Many readers often ask me about ORDI fixed investment and buying.

Today I will take ORDI as an example to share with you some of my basic ideas about fixed investment and buying.

First of all, As for the fixed investment price and the purchase price, my basic standards for measurement are the same, and I mainly use two indicators to measure them:

One is what is the full circulation market value (FDV) of an underlying asset;

The second is the market value of this underlying asset compared to the 20th-ranked coin and the 10th-ranked coin. How much potential upside is there.

As for which coins can be invested regularly, and which coins can only be purchased temporarily?

I mainly look at whether this coin has withstood the torture of the bear market. If it has experienced the torture of a bear market, its value is still strong, and the consensus is still strong, then I will consider making a fixed investment; otherwise, I will only consider buying opportunities during the downturn.

Let’s take ORDI as an example.

As of the time of writing, its unit price is US$73, and its full-circulation market value is US$1.5 billion; the 20th-ranked coin is BCH, and its full-circulation market value is US$4.8 billion; the 10th-ranked coin is Dogecoin has a full circulation market value of 11.5 billion.

Let’s look at ORDI and BCH first.

As one of the starting points for a series of innovations in the Bitcoin ecosystem in this round of bear market and also the leader of all subsequent homogeneous tokens, ORDI’s imagination space is definitely larger than BCH in my opinion. , and much larger --- because the inscription ecology is still developing rapidly and the narrative space continues to expand, all of which are directly and indirectly empowering ORDI. BCH, on the other hand, is lackluster.

In this time and space context, ORDI’s current full-circulation market value is less than one-third of BCH. Obviously there is room for growth in ORDI.

In the next bull market, I wouldn’t be surprised if ORDI squeezes BCH into the top 20.

Let’s look at ORDI and Dogecoin.

Compared with Dogecoin, ORDI still has a big gap in consensus. This gap is the root of the price gap between them. It can only rely on ecological development to bridge this consensus gap.

If the inscription ecology really develops and becomes a big trend, and its consensus becomes stronger, the market value may exceed Dogecoin. But this process is not easy and there are many uncertainties.

In this case, ORDI’s market capitalization is now about one-seventh of Dogecoin. This gap gives ORDI a certain amount of room for growth, but this space is not easy to cash in.

So just from the horizontal comparison within the ecosystem, the current price of ORDI is likely to have room for a 2-fold increase, and there is definitely a possibility of a 6-fold increase---but this 6 times Not easy to reach.

So, if a reader asks if it is okay to buy ORDI at the current price of $73?

I think it is possible, because there is a certain room for growth, but it is difficult to say about the larger room.

But in my opinion, this space still lacks appeal.

If its market value can be lower, such as ranking outside 70, or the entire encryption market suffers some more severe blows, such as the price of Bitcoin continues to fall and market sentiment turns cold again, it will also bring down ORDI. If the price goes down, it will become more attractive.

If its market capitalization ranking is outside 70, the price will only be about 50 US dollars; if the price of Bitcoin drops by another 20%, it is estimated that ORDI will almost fall to about 50 US dollars---this price I Basically, there is not much pressure when buying again.

This is why I think if the price of ORDI can drop to $50, I will only consider buying it again.

Why do I not consider fixed investment in ORDI but only buy it?

The reason is even simpler: because it is a product of this round of bear market and has not experienced the torture of the bear market, so I do not consider fixed investment, but only consider buying at low points. .