Shaw, Golden Finance. Starting last Saturday, the crypto market resumed a new upward trend, with significant gains in Bitcoin and Ethereum, driving the overall market upward. Bitcoin broke through $115,000, a nearly 3% increase in 24 hours; Ethereum also broke through $4,200, a more than 6% increase in 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations in the cryptocurrency market reached $430 million, with $356 million in short positions liquidated. What are the positive drivers of this cryptocurrency recovery? Have the previous market suppressors disappeared? Is the market poised for a resurgence? 1. Crypto markets have resumed their upward trend two weeks after the October 11th crash and liquidations. Starting last Saturday, the crypto market began a significant rebound. This morning, Bitcoin surged rapidly, briefly breaking through $115,000 to $115,005.29, a 24-hour gain of 2.93%. Ethereum also surged sharply, briefly breaking through $4,200 to $4,201.44, a 24-hour gain of 6.27%. Coinglass data shows that the total cryptocurrency market liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $430 million, including $73.8677 million in long positions and $356 million in short positions. Just two weeks after the October 11th crash and liquidations, the crypto market has already recovered its losses and returned to its previous level. It can be said that the market has digested the panic caused by the crash, and the market pressure caused by the "black swan" incident in the cryptocurrency market is gradually easing. It is only a matter of time before the crypto market regains its previous strength or even reaches new highs. 2. Easing Sino-US trade tensions give the market a break. From October 25th to 26th, Chinese and US trade delegations began a new round of two-day trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. After the consultations, Li Chenggang, China's International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce, told Chinese and foreign media that the two sides reached a preliminary consensus on properly resolving several important trade and economic issues of mutual concern, and the next step will be to complete their respective domestic approval procedures. "Over the past month or so, Sino-US trade relations have experienced some shocks and fluctuations, which have drawn global attention," Li said. Since the Geneva trade talks in May of this year, China has strictly adhered to the consensus reached during the multiple phone calls between the two presidents, faithfully and conscientiously implementing the consensus reached during the trade consultations, and meticulously nurturing the hard-earned and relatively stable Sino-US trade and economic cooperation relationship. "These shocks and fluctuations are not what China wants to see." After the talks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson said in an interview that after two days of talks in Kuala Lumpur, the two sides reached a "very substantive framework agreement" and that the U.S. is "no longer considering" imposing 100% tariffs on China. Market risk appetite has increased due to weekend trade news. Spot gold and silver opened lower on Monday, while WTI and Brent crude oil continued to strengthen after a gap. All three major U.S. stock index futures rose. The crypto market also saw a significant upward trend, stimulated by macroeconomic factors. Following the latest trade consultations between China and the United States, trade tensions have eased, providing the market with a respite, which has to some extent impacted the rise of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. 3. US CPI data is finally out, signaling another Fed rate cut is imminent. On the evening of October 24th, the US core CPI data for September was finally released, impacted by the US government shutdown. The seasonally adjusted core CPI rose to 0.2% month-over-month in September, meeting expectations and the previous reading of 0.30%. The unadjusted US CPI for September reached 3%, the highest annual rate since January 2025 and slightly below the consensus estimate of 3.1%. Huatai Securities stated that the unexpectedly slowing US CPI in September was primarily due to an unexpected slowdown in the rent component. Given the ongoing government shutdown and cooling job market, an October rate cut by the Federal Reserve is highly likely, with a December rate cut also being the baseline scenario. A CICC research report stated that the relatively mild inflation data supports further Fed rate cuts. Given the downside risks in the labor market, CICC predicts the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in October is 96.7%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates is 3.3%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point Fed rate cut in December is 94.8%. Following the release of September's CPI data, the market increased its bets on an October Fed rate cut. The Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision on October 29th, local time in the United States, and another rate cut is almost certain. The CPI data and market expectations of a Fed rate cut have also been a factor driving the recent surge in the crypto market. 4. Whale Accounts Actively Long Crypto Markets During the crypto market's continued rally, whales have been active on-chain. On-chain analyst Aunt Ai (@ai_9684xtpa) monitored the "mysterious whale with a 100% win rate" adding another 173.6 BTC to their holdings early this morning. This whale currently holds a long position worth $338 million, with a floating profit exceeding $17 million. The whale's current holdings include: a long position of 1,482.9 Bitcoins, valued at $165 million, opened at $110,680.1; and a long position of 40,043.81 Ethereums, valued at $168 million, opened at $3,929.76. Furthermore, the address 0xc2A associated with the October 11 insider whale, which recently profited from both long and short positions, opened another 5x long position on ETH last Friday, holding 7,375.45 ETH, worth $28.42 million. The whales' continued large-scale transactions on-chain indicate a recovery and warming of market investment sentiment. The whales' continued increase in long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum has fueled the continuous rise in spot prices in the crypto market and also indicates the market's betting direction for future market trends. 5. Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs indicate a gradual recovery in market trends. Farside monitoring data shows that US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of $446.3 million last week. Treasury Edge released a chart showing that the largest Ethereum ETF, BlackRock ETHA, holds $15.5 billion worth of Ethereum. Glassnode notes that net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs often occur near local market lows, accompanied by a decline in market sentiment. However, when fund flows turn positive, historically, they typically signal a demand recovery and the early stages of a trend rebound. Net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs signal a renewed surge in investor demand for Bitcoin, a potential recovery in the crypto market, and a price rebound. 6. Trump Pardons CZ and Appoints Crypto-Friendly CFTC Chairman The White House announced Thursday that Trump had pardoned convicted Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ). White House Press Secretary Levitt stated in a statement that Trump "exercised his constitutional authority to pardon Changpeng Zhao, who was indicted in the Biden administration's cryptocurrency crackdown." Trump stated, "I pardoned Binance founder CZ because he is innocent and a victim of persecution by the Biden administration." Last Friday, Trump appointed Michael Selig, chief advisor to the SEC's cryptocurrency task force, as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to address the growth of the crypto industry. Selig subsequently posted on social media, "I am honored to be nominated by President Trump to serve as the 16th Chairman of the CFTC." He added, "The US financial market is poised for a great golden age, with abundant new opportunities emerging." He pledged to work tirelessly to promote the healthy functioning of commodity markets, foster freedom, competition, and innovation, and assist President Trump in establishing the United States as a global hub for cryptocurrency. Trump's pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao and the appointment of a crypto-friendly new CFTC chairman demonstrate the US government's unwavering support for the development of the crypto industry in the US at the policy and regulatory levels. The continued favorable US regulatory policies have also contributed to the rebound in the crypto market. 7. How is the market betting on the next trend? BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated in an interview with CNBC that the chain reaction following the deleveraging event in the crypto market on October 11th is still ongoing, but it is about to end. This is because the open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts is at historical lows, and both are currently turning positive based on technical indicators. Therefore, he believes that cryptocurrencies will also see a wave of upward movement before the end of the year. JPMorgan Chase also recently stated that it may accept cryptocurrencies as collateral in the future, which is very helpful for market confidence. Crypto Quant analyst Axel posted on social media that the proportion of Bitcoin's supply in a profitable state (30-day change) has rebounded from -12% to -6%, indicating that selling pressure is easing and the market is buying on dips. While the current share of profitable coins remains lower than it was a month ago, the decline has narrowed significantly, indicating that negative momentum is weakening. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, stated in an interview that Bitcoin's bull market remains solid, but the market is at a "critical juncture" where sentiment could shift rapidly. In the long term, growing institutional demand provides solid support, and the market is entering a "post-$100,000 era." He also believes that Bitcoin has gradually broken away from its historical four-year cycle and is building a more stable foundation, as evidenced by declining volatility, increased institutional holdings, and a slowdown in passive buying. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated in an interview with cryptocurrency entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano on Thursday, "Bitcoin has broken its typical four-year cycle, suggesting a longer cycle is forming." VanEck stated that Bitcoin's pullback in October was a mid-cycle correction, not the beginning of a bear market. Leverage levels have returned to normal, on-chain activity has increased, and liquidity is continuing to drive this cycle.
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the price of Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of this year.
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