The Op super chain is great but currently does not have Alpha opportunities

Author: BITWU.ETH Source: X, @BTW0205

Although I currently hold a position in $Op, and Op has risen sharply, I may want to pour cold water on OP holders and friends who want to earn a hundred times on op. : OP can make money, but not a lot of money!

From my investment perspective, $Op can make money during the outbreak period, so when the Cancun upgrade and the L2 concept began to be hyped, Op and Arb They are all very good choices. But if you are pursuing the imaginary hundredfold return, or being a long-term Holder to pursue high returns in exchange of time and space, the OP is not cost-effective and does not have Alpha opportunities, so you can change your target!

1. The logic that must be understood in encryption: good projects are not equal to Alpha:

This article mainly explains my views on the later stage of OP. I personally think that OP is indeed very good, but purely from the perspective of OP tokens, it does not have the possibility of high-fold growth. This is very interesting, Many people think that if a project is great, then the token must be great. In fact, sometimes this is the opposite.

For example, in the early days of DYDX, the project was a top dex at that stage, but when the project did not empower the tokens well, in the early days The value of tokens has been unable to increase. This is also the case with ARB!

So a good project does not mean rapid growth! The crypto community must understand this.

The following are some of my personal views:

In investing, we often fall into a trap. There is a misunderstanding that a good project equals a good investment, and I think the Op that everyone has been popular about recently is just like this. It is a good project, but the OP is not a good investment

2. The relevant logic of the Op project, detailed explanation in six aspects:

1. Let’s talk about the Op super chain first. The basic disk

First, let's learn about the super chain through OK's video: https://youtube.com/watch?v=eHgbh3rGcmw< /p>

In fact, the development of Op chain is relatively weak, far less dazzling than Arb, and it belongs to a satisfactory position. However, the development of OP Stack shows Op's different strategic vision. It can be said that at the technical level, Arb is far ahead of Op. On the road level, Op is a few steps ahead of Arb.

OP Stack can be understood as a toolbox for one-click L2 generation, which greatly simplifies the construction of L2 chains. These decentralized L2 chains developed based on Op Stack are shared. Security, communication layer and open source technology Stack form the vision of Op Super Chain.

2. Op super chain inherits the vision of Cosmos

Friends who have played in the Cosmos ecosystem should have this feeling. The vision of Cosmos is being realized by the Op super chain. Cosmos also releases chains with one click. Based on the same framework standard, IBC connects various chains to achieve seamless interoperability.

Cosmos has achieved all this long ago, but lacked market support and was eventually absorbed by the ETH-based L2. This is also the leading charm of ETH.Other chains The trial and error cost of innovation is extremely high. Once the experiment is successful, the fruits will also be stolen by the ETH system. It can be said that other chains are the experimental fields of the ETH system.

3. BASE of Op super chain

At present, the development of the Op super chain is beyond expectations, especially the BASE chain. The cumulative number of unique addresses of Base is even higher than that of the OP main network. The dog fever in the summer and the http://Friend.tech fire are both from BASE Chain Hands,It is not an exaggeration to say that the BASE chain is "mother-killing" in terms of momentum, that is, BASE is developed based on Op Stack, but its development has surpassed the original owner Op.

4. L2’s “matricide” phenomenon

The "matricide" phenomenon first appeared in the Cosmos ecosystem. The market value of Luna exceeds the market value of ATOM. Luna is a chain developed based on Cosmos, and Atom is the Cosmos hub tokenThe "matricide" phenomenon is not a bad thing, it just shows that the ecology is extremely extreme. With great vitality, all the ecological players competing for hegemony have a chance to overpower the emperor.The Base chain has begun to have the potential of “matricide”, which just proves the strategic success of the Op super chain.Op provides one-click The L2 platform is developed, the infrastructure is all completed, and each Op sub-chain focuses on business and innovation, thus fully displaying its magical power and blooming.

In addition to BASE, the Op super chain also includes Zora, PGN, Mode, DeBank, etc. In the future, more and more players will join the Op super chain. In terms of strategy, On the other hand, with the enrichment of the Op super chain ecology, a network effect will eventually be formed.

5. Network effect of Op super chain

Op Provide chain issuance services and various underlying infrastructure to attract various forces to come here to launch L2 chains. The more participants settle in, the gathering of financial talents will further promote the improvement of the underlying services and attract more forces to settle in, ultimately forming an A powerful network effect, this is the moat of the Op super chain. Once this trend is formed, it is likely to mean the end of the L2 war, and the Op super chain will dominate the L2 ecology. Forming network effects,building a moat, and dominating the L2 ecology may be the ultimate strategic goal of the Op super chain.

All of the above are talking about the good side. Let’s talk about the main factors why Op does not have a high growth effect:

3. Why do Op tokens not have Alpha opportunities?

Of course, as an investment target, Op’s ability to stably outperform inflation is not a big problem, but the so-called Alpha opportunity here is excess return, which is true in the stock market. 10 times, in the currency circle it is similar to 100 times or even higher like ETH and AXS.

Let me talk about the conclusion first. Using ETH as the anchor, Op only slightly exceeds Beta return (market return), and there is no excess return. Let’s talk about the specific logic. The main ones are Two logics:

1. Op token empowerment problem

This is also the problem of all L2 token empowerment. First, the security layer grabs most of the benefits. The security layer of the Op super chain is ETH.The premise of L2 is based on the security of L1, so how does L2 design the economic model? , the majority of the profits (belonging to ETH) can never be moved,so there is only a part of the remaining operating enabling space for L2 chain tokens. There is no way, L2’s prerequisites are like this. The empowerment of L2 chain tokens is like a child who is born with insufficient development. No matter how he acquires nutrition, he will always be limited.

Now that we have talked about the innate problem, let’s talk about the acquired optimization part. The acquired part can be divided into asset attributes and functional attributes:

• In terms of asset attributes, Op tokens currently do not have it. Just look at the LP trading pairs of DEX, mainly ETH and various stable coins. It is even inferior to ATOM. ATOM also has empowerment problems in the Cosmos ecosystem.But ATOM is the main asset in the DEX of the sub-chain, and the matching volume of the LP pool is very high.

• In terms of functional attributes, Op token is unlikely to be used as the Gas currency of the L2 chain. This It is not a technical problem, but a problem of user experience. Once the Op token is forced to be a Gas currency, competitors will laugh crazy and may even be boycotted by the ETH community.

• The shared sorter has a large number of enabling variables. Of course, there is also the most mentioned shared sorter. Users can Op tokens are used as collateral to become a sequencer and receive fees for their services. This is currently the best Op token empowerment solution, but there are too many variables in between.

  The first is the conflict of interest. As early as 2021, the Op was talking about the decentralized sorter. Why has it not been implemented for so long? Really It is technically difficult, maybe, but it is more likely to be a balance of interests. The revenue rights of the centralized sorter belong entirely to the project party itself, so why should this revenue right be given to everyone.

  Secondly, whether the Op token is empowered or not is not directly related to the ecology. The ecology needs to develop. Look at the BASE chain, because the L2 chain It is true that there is no need to issue coins (critical attack). The core demand for issuing coins is still for early financing, so everyone does not think about how to design the model and solve the empowerment problem after the coins are issued.

When will the decentralized sorter be launched? Two situations: 1. Because of the direct risk events caused by the centralized sorter 2. Other L2s have launched decentralized sorters, forcing Op. Otherwise, it would be unrealistic for the Op project team to consciously put down their golden rice bowls, and it is also unrealistic. Not in line with human nature.

2. Op valuation is overexploited by the primary market

You can carefully study the growth of Op’s circulation market value and Op’s price chart this year. You will definitely be surprised. Op has been bombarded with various big moves this year. Why the token performance is mediocre? On the one hand, it is due to market environment restrictions. But if you take a closer look at the circulating market value of Op, you will be surprised to find that the original circulating market value of Op tokens has doubled five times this year, and the circulating market value has doubled rapidly, but the token price is languishing. It is a situation where new tokens are released at an ultra-high rate, and a large number of new Op tokens that are several times the current number in circulation enter the market.

This is another unknown secret of Op tokens, so it is very necessary for everyone to look at the FDV (full market value). Currently, Op’s FDV is 5.4 billion US dollars, and the circulating market value is 1.1 billion.

You can ignore FDV in the short term, but if you are hoarding Op in the long term, you must look at FDV instead of just looking at the circulating market value, because most of the Op is waiting to be released into the market, which will naturally sacrifice the long-term price of Op , and this is a slow job with a dull knife, done unconsciously, so investors who have been hoarding Op for a long time and want to get ultra-high odds should take a good look at the FDV of Op. If based on the FDV, you still If you think there are excess odds, you can bet on high odds for a long time. Otherwise, you can just take the beta profit because you came to the wrong venue.