As of November 15, 2025, global financial markets experienced significant volatility this week. The US federal government experienced its longest shutdown in history (October 1 to November 12, 2025, a total of 43 days), resulting in a permanent lack of key data such as October non-farm payrolls and October CPI. The market traded in a data vacuum, leading to fluctuating sentiment.
Current latest market pricing (November 15th CME FedWatch Tool)
III. Technical and Seasonal Factors
S&P 500 Index:
On November 13th, the index bottomed out at 5728 points, then precisely tested the 50-day moving average (5718 points) before rebounding quickly
Data
October Non-Farm Payrolls Report (Delayed Release): Expected +220k (Makes Up for Low Base in September)
October Retail Sales, PPI, Industrial Production
November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Earnings
Nvidia (November 19th after-hours): Market expectations for Q3 revenue of $38 billion (YoY +94%), Q4 guidance of $41-43 billion. Current consensus expectation for fiscal year 2026 EPS of $4.25. If guidance exceeds expectations by 10%, the corresponding target price could reach over $200.
V. Summary and Outlook
Current core contradiction in the market: