The Trump deal ignites the cryptocurrency market

At the beginning of this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETF applications, including BlackRock, which injected a large amount of funds into the Bitcoin market.

At the same time, Bitcoin has the characteristics of anti-inflation, scarcity, and liquidity. Coupled with risk aversion, some investors choose to allocate a certain amount of Bitcoin as a substitute for gold, which has promoted the rise of Bitcoin futures in the first half of the year and broke through the historical high on March 13, with a maximum of US$74,415 per coin.

Since July 12, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's listed Bitcoin futures have maintained an upward trend, reaching 70,825 points during the session on July 29, with a cumulative increase of more than 22%.

（Image source: Wenhua Finance, compiled by Cailianshe）

This round of Bitcoin rise is closely related to the "Trump deal". Trump has always been friendly to cryptocurrencies in this campaign. According to Cailianshe's previous report, in the 2024 election policy document approved by the Republican Convention this month, it was clearly stated that it would "end the Democratic Party's illegal and un-American suppression of cryptocurrencies, oppose the creation of central bank digital currencies, and defend the right to mine Bitcoin."

If Trump is successfully elected, the legalization of Bitcoin will be further promoted, and the market has also priced in this expectation. The price of Bitcoin futures has risen from US$57,805 to a maximum of US$70,825 in the past half month.

Good promises disturbed market sentiment, and Bitcoin once stood above the $69,000 mark

Last weekend, former US President Trump attended the 2024 Bitcoin Conference and delivered a speech at the conference. During his speech, Bitcoin went out of the "V-shaped market", and the spot contract fell briefly and then rose rapidly, with the highest intraday price exceeding $69,000 per coin.

Trump said that if he could return to the White House, he would ensure that the government would retain 100% of its Bitcoin and would list Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States.

Trump also said that the market value of Bitcoin will surpass gold in the future. Since its birth, the market value of Bitcoin has been increasing, and it has become the ninth largest asset in the world by market value. It will soon surpass silver and gold in the future.

For the development of Bitcoin, financial giants in the industry hold different views‍‍‍‍

Collins and Daniel, co-founders of Seawolf Capital, said in their annual letter to shareholders that they will continue to be optimistic about gold, gold miners, silver, platinum group metals and Bitcoin.

In an interview with CNBC on July 15, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that he believes Bitcoin is a legitimate financial instrument and compared Bitcoin to "digital gold." It is worth mentioning that Larry Fink had repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies a few years ago, calling Bitcoin "something that customers don't want to invest in at all."

Buffett has always been opposed to Bitcoin. At the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, he once again expressed his views on Bitcoin, "Bitcoin is not a productive asset. Its value depends on how much the next buyer is willing to pay the seller. Now there are many people participating in this gambling game, but these funds are transferred between different people, just with different owners, and some of them make money and some lose money.