The US government is set to reopen "Trump put options," signaling a return to a bull market.

Author: Anthony Pompliano, Founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management

For the past few days, short sellers have dominated the financial markets. The S&P 500 has fallen 2.5% in the past five days, the Nasdaq has fallen 4% in the same period, and Bitcoin has fallen 5% in the past week.

For a whole week, red numbers have been flashing on the screen.

But don't worry, a Trump-style bailout is here. President Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday morning, promising a $2,000 "tariff bonus" to all non-high-income U.S. citizens. Do you really think that president who measures the health of the US economy by stock market performance will stand idly by and let the short sellers celebrate their victory? Will the tariff benefits eventually materialize? I don't know. Currently, Polymarket's odds are only 15%. Another question is whether the tariff benefits will actually materialize? I don't think it matters. The "Trump put option" has already achieved its intended effect. A single social media post completely altered the trajectory of asset prices. Stock and Bitcoin prices surged as market enthusiasm returned. This is the "Trump put option." He always manages to make statements that influence the stock market at the perfect time. You might recall that before the stock market bottomed out this April, he posted on social media, "Now is a great time to buy!" A few weeks ago, on Sunday evening, about an hour before the futures markets opened, Trump dropped his threat to impose 100% tariffs on China. Yesterday, amidst panic and fear, the most encouraging news was Trump's promise to issue billions of dollars in economic stimulus checks. In the long run, are these stimulus checks beneficial to the healthy development of the US economy? Of course not. But does anyone care now? Not really. People are overly focused on short-term concerns, such as a stock market bubble or an impending Bitcoin bear market. Most people think that if President Trump wants to give millions of citizens $2,000, especially after the New York City mayoral election agenda over housing affordability issues, then let him. This completely ignores the long-term robustness of the economy and the depreciation of the dollar. Remember, inflation can only be created by Washington, and giving hundreds of millions of people thousands of dollars is a way to quickly increase the chances of high inflation. However, the "Trump put option" is not the only factor that could push up asset prices before the end of the year. We already know that the prospects for a US-China trade agreement are becoming clearer. We have also seen the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time in two meetings. And now, Polymarket data shows that the likelihood of the government shutdown being resolved before November 15 is increasing. On Sunday morning, the general consensus was that the probability of the government shutdown being resolved after November 16 was 62%, but in the past 24 hours, that probability has plummeted to only 7%. A key reason for this shift is reports last night that the Senate reached an agreement to get enough Democrats to vote in favor of reopening the government. Stocks and Bitcoin are expected to rise rapidly if the government shutdown ends. Phil Rosen of Opening Bell Daily wrote, “In the past 50 years, the U.S. has experienced 21 government shutdowns, and the S&P 500 has risen by an average of 1.2% after a one-month shutdown and 2.9% after three months. The stock market almost always rises after a government shutdown.” Altcoin Gordon data shows that Bitcoin also rose 50% in the three months following the last government shutdown. So what's going to happen next? Nobody knows. We're all trying to predict an unknowable future. But what I've learned in the last five or six years is to trust your intuition, your feelings, your animal instincts. Whatever you call it, people's perception of the market often determines its performance. Last week was a prime example. Panic and negativity filled the market. People were predicting the next bear market for Bitcoin or the end of the stock market rally. But this week is different. We just need the promise of some stimulus checks to get everyone excited again. If everyone gets excited, money will flood the market, driving up asset prices. I'm not the smartest person in the world, but I know the impact of "Trump put options" shouldn't be ignored. Yesterday morning, "Trump put options" appeared, asset prices are reacting, and the bull market is back.