This round of bull market is precocious and may really start in January 2025

Yesterday [July 9 Teaching Chain Insider: Multiple signs indicate that the bull market is coming back] shared a hundred opinions on this round of BTC correction. The comprehensive conclusion is consistent with the main view of the teaching chain over this period of time, that is, the so-called liquidation selling pressure from governments is actually limited, and it is just the material used by short sellers to make profits. Just like there is no fish in fish-flavored pork shreds, no husband and wife in husband and wife lung slices, and no wife in wife cakes, don't really think that the things advertised in the media are really the main ingredients of this dish just because you hear the name of a dish.

This round of bull market came too early. If you get up too fast, you will easily feel dizzy and may even stumble if you are not careful. Referring to the calculations of the cycles in previous years, the bull market should have started at the end of 2024, the beginning of 2025, or even in the middle and late 2025. But this time, it actually broke through the previous high of 69,000 US dollars in 2021 at the beginning of 2024. If we follow one of the industry's common bull market definition methods, that is, "breaking through the previous high", we can believe that this round of bull market has officially embarked on the journey on March 11, 2024.

As we all know, this bull market started early thanks to two things: first, there was a two-headed bull in 2021, which led to a significant reduction in the "previous high"; second, the US BTC spot ETF was passed, causing a large amount of funds to flow in, accelerating the upward movement of BTC. As one goes up and the other goes down, this bull market was brought forward by a whole year.

How exaggerated is the advance amount of entering the bull market this time? You really don't know until you see it, and you'll be shocked when you see it. The following is a picture drawn by a netizen. The blue strips in the figure are the bull market trend ranges of the previous rounds of cycles, which are drawn in proportion to this round. The red curve is the development of this round of bull market. The teaching chain uses red arrows to indicate the location of the "breakthrough of the previous high".

From the picture, you can see how the market "teases" humans who try to defeat it:

Previously, a large number of old leeks, old guns, and old KOLs generally formed a "consensus" to take advantage of the "halving" in April, when BTC "must" plummet, and "bottom-fish" BTC. After all, before the halving in 2020, the "312" crash and the collapse of BTC left an indelible impression on many old leeks who experienced that thrilling event. Look at the blue strip in the picture, which quickly approached the power law support line below in March. What's more terrifying is that in the past few cycles, almost at this point in time, they were crawling close to the bottom line.

The stronger the stereotypes and fixed thinking are, the more the market will slap you in the face. Look at the red curve in the picture. It is around the time when the past few cycles were all "good opportunities for bargain hunting", but this cycle just happened to create a breakthrough, a new historical high, and BTC stood at 70,000 dollars!

Bargaining? Dream on your spring and autumn dreams! This year's "halving" will not be discounted, and I will sell them at a high price! Hahaha~

At this moment, Jiaolian really feels that BTC is like a high-dimensional life form with a wisdom level far higher than that of humans. "When humans think, God laughs." At this moment, BTC is like the laughing God, looking at those cute and silly people who are racking their brains to get a little bargain, but their IQ level is like that of kindergarten babies.

Not only is there no discount this year, but the price has also increased. How much more expensive is it? Let's take a look and estimate.

Please note that this graph is a linear coordinate system. When the record high of more than 70,000 dollars was reached, the bottom line was about 30,000. With such a rough estimate, it is probably twice as expensive!

But what can you do? If you add more positions, you are afraid of losing money. If you don't add more, you are afraid of missing this bull market. The main dilemma is

The teaching chain often says that bull market is a time to lose money. The reason is that the bull market will greatly increase your cost of adding positions. High cost means that you don't buy well enough. And it is extremely difficult to sell well. When you don't sell well enough, you need to buy well to make up for it. If you still don't buy well, then the outcome is likely to be a loss, admit defeat and leave.

Friends who have an impression must remember that in March, many newcomers came into the market! At this time, we should know in our hearts that they are all here to lose money.

Whether it is a new position for a newcomer or a new position for an old investor, as long as you increase your position after the bull market starts, you must be mentally prepared to be beaten. Without this psychological preparation, if your position falls into a little floating loss and you cry for your parents, then your psychological quality is not suitable for secondary market investment, or it is less painful to deposit it regularly.

If the awareness of the stock market is "halved", then the awareness of the currency market should be at least "20% cut", or even "zero cut".

Here, only those who are ready to die and live for death are worthy of living and smiling to the end.

The quick victory theory, the idea of ​​wanting to make money as soon as you enter the market is naive. On the contrary, the surrender theory, that is, the view that since this round of bull market started a year in advance, it will end a year in advance, that is, the view that Game Over will be at the end of 2024, is also absurd.

What's even more funny is that the argument given by those who hold the surrender theory is that the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. And the interest rate cut will be accompanied by a market collapse, thus sending away the bull market.

Do you think that the Federal Reserve's unprecedented interest rate hikes in the past two years have not been able to send away the bull market? Could it be that its shift to easing and restarting the release of water will actually send away the bull market instead of boosting the violent bull market?

We have always opposed the fantasy of the quick victory theory and criticized the absurdity of the surrender theory. Only a protracted war is the most correct strategy.

Six months ago, on January 9, 2024, Jiaolian published an article "Bitcoin's Big Ups and Downs", introducing to readers the micro details of the skyrocketing journey that began after the gold ETF was passed in 2024: After the ETF was passed and the gold price hit a record high, it fell into a box that fluctuated sideways for 10 months. After a full wash and digestion, it broke through the box again, ushering in an epic bull market.

Slightly different from this, after the BTC ETF was listed on January 11, it first hit a local high of 49k, and then dropped to 38.5k on January 23 to wash the market, and then officially started the ETF bull market. It took one and a half months to break through the historical high on March 11 and stand at 70,000 dollars. After that, the confirmation of the historical high did attract a lot of incremental funds, and then it started the sideways shock wash market without panic.

Obviously, the 49k on the listing day was too mediocre, and the wash effect was not good. So it was pulled to a new high, and the bull market started. In this way, the high-level wash was strong enough and comfortable enough. Just like you go to pinch your feet to loosen bones, it is boring if it doesn't hurt or itch. It must be painful to scream, that's comfortable. In this way, it can also achieve the effect of relaxing muscles and blood circulation and relaxing the whole body.

Referring to the ten-month wash of gold ETF, if the BTC ETF's wash is also calculated as ten months, from March, it will take until January 2025. Let's look forward to January 2025, effectively break through the box constraints, and even break through a certain key price level, and officially start this round of bull market.

It's no coincidence that this time rhythm just happened to hit the rhyme of history! Satoshi Nakamoto is really a god.

So, the so-called bull market launch in March was actually a fake move, a sleight of hand, a fake launch.

This is called, "When the fake becomes real, the real becomes fake, and when there is nothing, there is something and there is nothing."