This week, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a strong surge led by established altcoins. Projects launched before 2022, such as ZEC, FET, FIL, and ICP, collectively rallied, dominating the top ten of Binance's gainers list. This rally finally offered a glimmer of hope to investors who had long been sidelined. Notably, on November 8th, excluding the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, altcoins contributed 37% of total trading volume, but their market capitalization accounted for only 7.3%. This significant imbalance indicates a rapid influx of funds into established altcoins, and a sharp rise in market risk appetite. Why might an epic market shift occur now? The core reason lies in the fact that two key signals triggering a style shift have been simultaneously met for the first time: First, the dramatic volatility of October 11th has thoroughly restructured the market, laying the foundation for a new trend; second, a leading stock capable of consolidating market consensus and continuously guiding the direction has emerged. Firstly, although the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins will eventually converge, a shift in market style is often accompanied by sharp pain rather than a smooth transition. The fundamental reason lies in the fact that two stringent conditions must be met for funds to complete the "high-low switch": a shift in funds from Bitcoin trend speculation, and a thorough cleansing of historical trapped positions in the altcoin market. The crash on October 11th was the catalyst for this process: a large number of holding low-leverage positions (i.e., "veteran" positions) were forcibly liquidated in the extreme decline, greatly relieving altcoins of their historical burdens. From then on, the altcoin-to-Bitcoin exchange rate began to bottom out and strengthen, signifying that the channel for fund switching had been opened. Secondly, established altcoins, represented by ZEC, DASH, and ICP, quickly ignited market sentiment with their explosive price increases. The deeper significance lies in the fact that they validated the market law that "the height of the leading coin determines the height of the market"—the strong performance of leading coins opened up valuation space for the entire sector, driving the spread of profit-making effects. This pattern closely resembles the market trend in February 2024, when AI leaders like RENDER, WLD, and ARKM also saw gains exceeding tenfold, kicking off the previous altcoin season. The current market seems to be replaying this historical scenario. So why are most of these leading altcoins projects launched before the 2022 bear market? 1. They possess healthier valuations and asset structures: These projects not only underwent a full bear market reshuffling, significantly squeezing out valuation bubbles, but their token economies are also more mature. Most have circulating supply exceeding 80%, and VC and team shares have been largely unlocked within three years, significantly releasing potential selling pressure and clearing structural obstacles for price increases. 2. The "sedimentation effect" of capital cycles drives value reversion: History shows that after each wave of capital investment, although bubbles burst, the core investments ultimately yield true winners. Just as 12% of companies experienced a long bull run after the dot-com bubble in 2000, the success of the 2020-2021 crypto investment boom should not be attributed solely to the SOL case. The market needs more projects from that era to realize their value; this is an inherent requirement of the capital cycle. 3. The technological cycle lull reinforces its "first-mover advantage": This cycle lacks disruptive innovations like the DeFi Summer, with new projects mostly representing technological improvements. Against this backdrop, established projects that have withstood the test of time, possess mature ecosystems and community consensus, have accumulated brand recognition and infrastructure that form a strong moat, becoming the preferred choice for funds seeking certainty amidst uncertainty. On October 11th, the market capitalization of altcoins (excluding the top ten by market capitalization) once dropped to 6.05%, a record low since the ICO boom of July 2017. Behind this extreme data lies a serious question concerning the future of the industry: if the altcoin ecosystem, which carries the vast majority of technological applications and innovative attempts, is abandoned by the market, then blockchain may degenerate into a "digital gold" system with only a store of value function but no widespread application vitality, and its grand "Internet of Value" narrative will collapse accordingly. A true bull market must be built on the foundation of the shared prosperity of altcoins, which are quietly building themselves in countless scenarios such as DeFi, gaming, and social networking, in addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. They are the key to realizing the transformation of blockchain from a "ledger" to a "platform." Therefore, the current extremely low market share is not the end, but rather a historic opportunity to reprice the future of blockchain applications. The classic "sudden surge" pattern in technical analysis often manifests as a sudden surge in price with huge volume after a long period of low-volume consolidation at the bottom. This price movement is far from ordinary fluctuation; it's a strong signal of a fundamental reversal in market trends. It signifies a sudden release of long-suppressed buying momentum, reflecting a consensus among major investors who have begun a strong entry into the market. Observing the recent strong performance of established altcoins like ZEC and ICP, their typical "sudden surge" pattern precisely confirms that this is not a short-term drive by retail investor sentiment, but rather an organized and large-scale collective accumulation by institutional funds based on a consensus on valuation recovery potential. For ordinary investors, accurately predicting trend reversals is certainly difficult, but actively following the trend signals when they are already clear is often the safest strategy to avoid subjective misjudgments and seize market opportunities.
Weiliang
Miyuki
Brian