Trump faces 34 felony charges. Can he still defeat Biden?

Source: Bloomberg; BBC; Decrypt, compiled by Tao Zhu, Golden Finance

Donald Trump was found guilty in a Manhattan criminal trial, injecting an explosive and unpredictable new variable into the deadlocked presidential campaign.

Trump has survived two impeachments and countless other scandals, but still leads Biden in most polls.

Is Trump's verdict an opportunity for Biden?

Bipartisan presidential campaign strategists agree that the guilty verdict provides a new opportunity for Biden, whose lackluster performance and declining poll numbers have raised concerns among many Democratic lawmakers and party officials.

Biden campaign communications director Michael Taylor said in a statement on Thursday that the result shows that "no one is above the law" and that Trump "has always mistakenly believed that he would never be punished for breaking the law for personal gain." But Biden also acknowledged that the legal system alone can’t stop Trump from taking back the White House in November.

“There’s only one way to stop Donald Trump from the White House: at the ballot box,” Biden said in a fundraising pitch.

Trump’s felony conviction offers Biden an opportunity to shake up the campaign by refocusing voters’ attention on Trump’s behavior.

“It would be a dereliction of duty not to rely solely on the verdict,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and veteran of Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. "I hope President Biden will make a major speech and let Democratic officials incite the country and do everything possible to make the campaign a referendum on Trump."

2. The story of Trump and AV actresses

American adult film actress Stormy Daniels said that she and Trump had an affair since 2006, and he has been trying to keep the matter low-key since then.

Daniels is her stage name, her real name is Stephanie Clifford, born in Louisiana in 1979. She was an adult film actress before she began directing and writing in 2004. Daniels said she had sex with Trump once at a hotel during a celebrity golf tournament in Lake Tahoe, California in July 2006. Trump had married Melania Trump in 2005.

Trump strongly denied having an affair with Daniels.

Daniels accepted a "hush money" from Trump's personal lawyer because she was worried about the safety of her family.

Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen also confirmed that he had paid Daniels $130,000 privately.

Daniels pointed out that she and Trump's lawyer Cohen signed the so-called "hush money" document shortly before the election, but Trump did not sign it, so it was legally invalid.

3. Will voters' attitudes change?

Trump is trying to use the verdict to energize die-hard supporters, most of whom believe his claim that the prosecution was politically motivated and aimed at preventing him from taking power.

“The real verdict will be made on November 5 by the people, and they know what happened here,” Trump said in brief comments to reporters outside the court.

Trump used a similar strategy last year, capitalizing on Republican anger over his prosecution to force his primary opponent to withdraw from the race. However, it is unclear whether it will work in the general election.

James Carville, a senior strategist for Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, said the most important factor about the guilty verdict was that it was delivered by an impartial jury — and therefore could resonate with marginal and undecided voters who typically ignore partisan messengers.

“Trump can’t win on his people alone,” Carville said. “And it’s certainly going to have a dampening effect on everybody else.”

Pre-verdict surveys suggest Trump will indeed pay a price for the jury’s conclusion that he knowingly falsified business records during his 2016 presidential campaign to hide his affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels from voters.

A May 23 Marquette Law School poll of registered voters found that Biden would lead Trump in a national head-to-head matchup by 4 percentage points if the verdict was "guilty," while Trump would lead by 6 percentage points if the verdict was "not guilty."

Whether the race changes may depend more on Biden than on Trump. At least some strategists in both parties expect Trump's newfound felony status to have a lasting impact — if Biden and his campaign can highlight the conviction to a population that is mostly unconcerned about national affairs.

There are also practical problems for Trump's campaign, which has been hoping to increase travel to battleground states without being constrained by court schedules. His sentencing is scheduled for July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee.

Evidence of internal strife has emerged since the verdict, with Trump surrogates clashing on social media with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, now the Republican candidate in the state's U.S. Senate race, after Hogan urged Americans to "respect the verdict and the legal process."

The title "felon" can unsettle low-intention, low-information voters, who are the reason Trump is currently ahead.

Despite the Trump campaign's public claims of indifference to the trial, Trump has privately told allies and advisers that he does not want to be a felon.

Fourth, Trump's response

Prosecutors allege that Trump directed Cohen to pay $130,000 to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election to stop her from going public with what she said was a sexual encounter between them. Prosecutors argue that Trump reimbursed Cohen for hush money and that several payments for "legal services" were recorded on the company's books. Trump's team claims the money was actually for legal work.

Trump has denied all the charges and called the trial "rigged."

Trump also called on donors to contribute to his troubled presidential campaign.

“They searched my home, arrested me, took my picture, and now they just convicted me!” one fundraising appeal read. “Before the end of the day, I’m calling for 10 million Patriots who support Trump to donate.”

Trump’s fundraising effort has notched up several wins in recent weeks, including $76 million raised in April, $25 million more than Biden raised that month. He also received support from billionaire Miriam Adelson and Blackstone Group CEO Steve Schwarzman, two of the Republican Party’s largest donors. Trump also raised $40 million in his Texas campaign, much of it from executives in the oil and gas industry, including Harold Hamm, chairman of Continental Resources.

V. Reaction of traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets

Trump’s verdict has yet to have an impact on Wall Street.

From around-the-clock currency trading to after-hours stock trading, most financial assets (except shares of Trump Media and Technology Group) remained largely stable after a New York jury found Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts.

But the question now for traders is how the decision will affect markets that have begun to prepare for the 2024 US election - in which Trump is almost certain to face President Joe Biden.

Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, said: "The stock market has historically been unaffected by domestic political turmoil. However, after Trump's verdict, the political atmosphere will obviously be more turbulent, which may increase stock market volatility."

Compared with the stable performance of traditional financial assets, crypto assets obviously reacted more violently.

TRUMP 's price plummeted from about $15 before the verdict was read to $11.27 shortly after the verdict, a drop of nearly 25% in just over an hour.

Trump concept coins with smaller market capitalizations are also currently falling sharply, with MAGA Hat (MAGA) falling 16% in an hour, Super Trump (STRUMP) falling 16% in an hour, and MAGA VP (MVP) falling 22% in an hour.

Memeccoins inspired by Trump's main rival and current US President Joe Biden rose after the verdict. The largest meme coin by market capitalization, Jeo Boden (BODEN), rose 12% in an hour.

VI. Other issues worth noting

1. What will happen after Trump is convicted?

The next step will be sentencing by Judge Juan Mersch, which is scheduled for July 11. This is only a few days away from the Republican National Convention on July 15, where the Republican Party will formally nominate Trump as the presidential candidate for the November 5 election. Mersch said that Trump can remain at large until the sentencing.

Defendants convicted of felonies are usually sentenced to prison, but the law does not require them to serve their sentences. In particular, the former president is 77 years old, a first-time offender, and has no criminal record, so it is necessary to deal with him leniently. Trump may also be required to pay some form of financial penalty.

2. How long may Trump be in prison?

Each charge is a Class E felony, with a sentence of 1.5 to 4 years. Because Trump was convicted of multiple crimes, Trump can be sentenced to multiple crimes concurrently, meaning the former president would serve all of his sentences at the same time.

3. Can Trump appeal?

Yes, he immediately challenged the verdict, saying the fight is "far from over." But he can only appeal to the state of New York after the verdict.

Trump may eventually ask the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene.

4. Where might Trump serve his sentence?

It's unclear where Trump will serve his sentence, but the U.S. Secret Service, which is responsible for protecting current or former presidents, has met with federal, state and city officials to discuss the possibility of Trump going to prison.

If Trump is sentenced to a year or less in prison, he will likely serve his sentence at New York's Rikers Island prison, which has seven prisons. Allen Weisselberg, 76, the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, who recently pleaded guilty to perjury, is currently serving a five-month sentence in the medical unit of the prison.

5. Does Trump's conviction mean he can't run for reelection?

Trump can still run for public office. The U.S. Constitution has few qualifications for running for public office, including no restrictions on character or criminal record.

6. How will the verdict affect the 2024 election?

It is not yet clear how his conviction will affect the outcome of the election. But if Trump wins, the United States will have a convicted felon as head of state for the first time - a fact that is not uncommon elsewhere in the world. Trump has compared himself to the late South African leader Nelson Mandela, who was imprisoned for 27 years for opposing the apartheid regime.

7. Can Trump pardon himself if he is re-elected?

If Trump is re-elected, he could theoretically instruct the Justice Department to drop the cases.

Data from blockchain prediction market Polymarket shows that traders still expect Trump to defeat Biden in the November election. Even after the verdict, Trump is still far ahead - with a 56% chance of winning, while Biden has a 38% chance.