Trump "gives in" and cuts tariffs? A new global chessboard in 2025

Trump's "relaxation" truth: the double dilemma of inflation and supply chain

Trump's statement was by no means a whim, but a concentrated reflection of internal and external pressures. In March 2025, the US core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, and used car prices soared 18%. The 145% tariff imposed on China on April 10 further pushed up prices, and the average annual expenditure of middle-class American families increased by about US$5,200. If tariffs continue to increase, inflation may exceed the Fed's interest rate hike threshold, severely damaging Trump's "Tax Cut 2.0" plan and re-election prospects.

The deeper crisis comes from the supply chain. On April 11, the United States exempted 20 categories of Chinese goods such as smartphones and chips from tariffs because 75% of the world's chip packaging and testing capacity is concentrated in China, and the US F-35 fighter is highly dependent on Chinese rare earths. The Trump team gradually realized that forced "decoupling" would not only fail to weaken China, but could also set the US technology industry back ten years. Under the double pressure of high inflation and supply chain fragility, Trump had to adjust his strategy and "loosen" tariff cuts in exchange for political survival space.

Election and capital calculations: the driving force behind the triple game

2025 is the year of the US election. Trump's tariff statement is actually a political and economic operation of "killing three birds with one stone", accurately leveraging votes and capital:

Political magic in swing states Manufacturing states such as Ohio have made a lot of money from tariffs on China, and profits in the steel industry have increased by 30%. However, high tariffs have also led to rising prices for auto parts, and local auto factories have laid off 12,000 people. By "loosening" tariffs in stages, Trump can not only create the illusion of a return of manufacturing, but also appease unemployed voters and stabilize votes in swing states.

Capital Carnival on Wall Street The tariff exemption policy saves Apple $3.8 billion in costs each year, and Intel's stock price rose 7% in a single day. Goldman Sachs data shows that hedge funds are deploying short-term rebound and long-term strangulation strategies through "tariff options". If the policy is reversed after 30 days, cross-border capital will complete a perfect round of arbitrage.

Expectation management of inflation and interest rate cuts Reducing tariffs can lower CPI in the short term and pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in June. Interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut has risen from 41% to 67%, which is directly beneficial to the US stock earnings season. Trump used this to stabilize market confidence and add points to the election campaign.

China's way out: four trump cards to win

Faced with Trump's tariff psychological warfare, China has calmly laid out its four trump cards and firmly taken the initiative with its strategic foresight:

Energy hidden line: RMB settlement's global breakthrough On April 18, Shanghai crude oil futures positions surged by 28%, and Middle Eastern countries accepted RMB settlement of crude oil contracts for the first time. This move effectively offset the impact of US tariffs on energy pricing power and consolidated China's voice in the global energy market.

Rare earth nuclear bombs: precise strikes on US military industry In early April, China launched rare earth export controls. Each F-35 fighter jet requires 417 kilograms of Chinese rare earths, while the Pentagon's inventory is only enough to last for 6 months. This move directly hits the lifeline of the US military supply chain, forcing the US to be more cautious at the negotiating table.

Technological breakthrough: hard-core counterattack of independent innovation Huawei's smart driving chip shipments exceeded 2 million pieces, and its North American market share grew against the trend to 17%; SMIC joined hands with domestic companies to promote 2-nanometer technology research and development, gradually breaking the US "stranglehold" restrictions. The technological generation gap makes the tariff stick gradually ineffective.

Supply chain reconstruction: the firewall between Southeast Asia and Central Europe Xiyin, Temu and other companies accelerated the transfer of production capacity to Vietnam and Mexico, the number of China-Europe trains exceeded 20,000, and ASEAN trade increased by 18%. The production capacity of Chinese-funded automobile factories in Mexico increased by 340% in three years, and the occupancy rate of China Industrial Park in Haiphong Port, Vietnam exceeded 90%. Southeast Asia's "second supply chain" has become a solid barrier for China to resist tariff shocks.

Three variables in the eye of the storm: potential detonation points for global chaos

Although the current situation seems to be easing, three variables may trigger new uncertainties in the future:

Agricultural black swans The century-old floods in the Midwest of the United States have caused the volatility of soybean futures to hit a record high. If Trump restarts tariffs to protect votes in agricultural states, global food prices may soar again, pushing up inflation.

Digital currency secret war Bitcoin halving is approaching. If the United States uses tariffs to suppress the RMB, cryptocurrency may become a new channel for capital flight and disrupt the global financial order.

The game between the United States and Europe has escalated. Germany has launched an anti-dumping investigation on liquefied natural gas from the United States. If a full-scale tariff war breaks out between the United States and Europe, the global supply chain will face a "nuclear explosion-level" impact, and the Asia-Pacific market may be implicated.

Conclusion: Gamebreakers become chess players

Trump's tariff "relaxation" is the opening whistle of the global capital game in 2025. The apparent compromise is actually a precise calculation of inflation, votes and supply chain reconstruction. However, China has long built a high wall of counterattack based on energy, rare earths, technology and diversified trade networks. In this war without gunpowder, the stick of unilateralism will eventually be abandoned by history. Only countries that understand the undercurrent of capital and master core technologies can win in the chaos.

While the United States is still wielding the tariff lever, China has quietly completed its global layout. History has repeatedly proved that those who build walls will eventually be trapped by the walls, and those who break the game will become chess players. In the global chess game of 2025, China is writing a new chapter with confidence and wisdom.