Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering key news of the week, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you to a glance at the major events in the blockchain industry this week.
Headlines
▌Trump considers signing an executive order to suspend the TikTok ban after taking office
US President-elect Trump is considering issuing an executive order after taking office to suspend the implementation of TikTok sales or ban laws for 60 to 90 days. According to two people familiar with the matter, Trump may sign an executive order that will lift the Biden administration's nationwide ban on the app on the 19th. Trump said he is widely supported on this platform with more than 14 million followers. He hopes to fulfill his previous campaign promises. (CCTV News) ▌ VanEck submits application for Onchain Economy ETF to US SEC Asset management company VanEck submitted an application for Onchain Economy exchange-traded fund (ETF) to the US Securities and Exchange Commission on January 15. According to the document, the fund will invest in cryptocurrency companies across the industry, including software developers, mining companies, cryptocurrency exchanges, infrastructure builders, payment companies and other businesses in the cryptocurrency field. The asset manager defines these companies as "digital transformation companies" and writes: "The selection of digital transformation companies is based on fundamental analysis, market trends, the company's strategic positioning in the digital asset ecosystem, and valuation." The fund will also invest in digital asset instruments such as commodity futures contracts, but will not invest directly in digital assets by holding cryptocurrencies.
▌U.S. Congressman Tom Emmer was appointed as Vice Chairman of the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Artificial Intelligence
Forbes reporter Eleanor Terrett wrote on X that French Hill, Chairman of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, has appointed Tom Emmer as Vice Chairman of the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Artificial Intelligence. He also nominated other Republican members of the committee.
▌The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued Musk: Failure to disclose the purchase of Twitter shares as required, spending $150 million less
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed a lawsuit in the federal court in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, suing Musk for suspected securities violations. The SEC said Musk purchased more than 9% of Twitter common stock in March 2022, but failed to disclose relevant information in a timely manner, violating federal securities laws. After an 11-day delay, Musk publicly disclosed his beneficial ownership in a report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on April 4, 2022. The delay allowed Musk to continue to buy Twitter shares at artificially low prices, spending at least $150 million less. On April 4, 2022, Twitter's stock price rose by more than 27% from the previous day's closing price. Musk's lawyer responded that Musk did nothing wrong and the lawsuit was "a farce."
▌The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Binance's appeal and upheld the ruling that securities laws apply to U.S. investors
The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday rejected the appeal of Binance and its former CEO Changpeng Zhao. Previously, the Second Circuit Court ruled that U.S. securities laws still apply to the cryptocurrency exchange even if Binance does not have a physical headquarters. Binance and its founder, Changpeng Zhao, have been facing legal trouble since 2023. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused the trading platform of illegally providing services to U.S. citizens. At the end of 2023, Binance paid $4.3 billion in fines and forfeitures and pleaded guilty to multiple felony charges. Binance is widely considered to be the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange based on trading volume. The core dispute in the case is whether Binance is subject to U.S. securities laws because it provides services to U.S. customers, even though it has no official office location and headquarters in the United States. Binance had asked the Supreme Court to review the Second Circuit's ruling, which held that even if Binance had no office in the United States, the trading platform must comply with U.S. law as long as U.S. investors purchased tokens through Binance and the transactions took place on U.S. servers.
▌Trump may issue an executive order on his first day in office, covering bank encryption business and abolishing controversial encryption accounting policies
According to The Washington Post, sources said that Trump is expected to issue an executive order on the first day of his presidency, covering bank encryption business and abolishing controversial cryptocurrency accounting policies, which require digital assets held by banks to be accounted for as liabilities on their balance sheets.
A source told The Washington Post, "The Trump team has made it clear that this is a priority." These upcoming executive measures target cryptocurrency regulation and are intended to protect cryptocurrency investors from what Trump calls the "Washington bureaucratic swamp."
Policy
▌The U.S. Supreme Court may rule on the TikTok case on Friday
The U.S. Supreme Court hinted that it may rule on the "sell or ban" TikTok ban on Friday (January 17). On January 16, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court announced on its website that the court "may issue an opinion at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday (11 p.m. Beijing Time)", but did not specify which cases would be decided. The TikTok ban was originally scheduled to take effect on Sunday (January 19).
▌The U.S. SEC has submitted an opening statement on the appeal against Ripple
Court documents show that the U.S. SEC has submitted an opening statement on the appeal against Ripple.
Yesterday, the U.S. SEC appears to be advancing a series of enforcement cases currently in court. Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty and X issued a statement saying that the SEC will not delay the filing of briefs as part of its appeal against the Ripple verdict.
▌Oklahoma Congressman proposes bill to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state
According to Bitcoin Magazine, Oklahoma Congressman Cody Maynard has proposed a bill to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state.
▌Texas Senator Submits SB 778 to Establish State-Level Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
Texas Senator Charles Schwertner tweeted that he had submitted SB 778, proposing to establish the first state-level Bitcoin strategic reserve in the United States. If the bill is passed, it will enable Texas to take a leading position in the digital economy and promote economic growth and freedom.
▌The U.S. SEC postpones the decision on the application for Bitwise BITW to be converted into an ETF to July
According to a public regulatory document, the U.S. SEC will postpone the decision on the application for the conversion of Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) into an ETF to late July. This means that it will take longer to wait for the approval of the Bitwise ETF. In addition, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart pointed out that Grayscale's next GDLC deadline is February 2. Delays are also expected.
▌U.S. SEC Chairman: The results of the 2024 presidential election do not depend on the funds of crypto interest groups
In an interview with CNBC Squawk Box host Andrew Ross Sorkin, U.S. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said he believes that the funds of cryptocurrency voters and digital asset interest groups are unlikely to affect the results of the 2024 U.S. election and make President-elect Donald Trump win.
He said: "I think that although, as you pointed out, this election raised money from the cryptocurrency field, I don't think that's the purpose of this election. This field, the cryptocurrency field, a highly speculative field, has not been in compliance with various laws, whether it's money laundering laws, sanctions laws, or in our case, securities laws."
▌U.S. SEC Chairman: SEC Never Said Bitcoin and Ethereum Are Securities
Outgoing U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that the commission "never said" Bitcoin and Ethereum are securities, and neither he nor the SEC's former chairman Jay Clayton said Bitcoin is a security.
▌Indian court rejects release plea of accused in one of country's largest Bitcoin Ponzi schemes worth Rs 66.06 billion
India's special PMLA court for anti-money laundering has rejected the release plea of Hemant Bhope and his wife Lata, who were accused in connection with one of India's largest Bitcoin Ponzi schemes involving a Delhi-based company, Variabletech Pvt Ltd (VTPL), where the accused conspired to lure investors into buying Bitcoin and encouraged others to invest in the company to commit fraud worth Rs 66.06 billion.
Blockchain Applications
▌Abstract launches Abstract Syndicate, open for qualified investors
Abstract announced the launch of Abstract Syndicate, powered by echo (@echodotxyz). Selected builders on Abstract now have exclusive access to showcase their applications directly to qualified investors committed to driving the future of consumer cryptocurrency. Qualified investors who expect to support and invest in the next wave of Abstract applications can apply to join Syndicate through official channels.
Yesterday's news, Abstract Ecosystem confirmed in a post on X that Abstract will be launched this month.
▌Stargaze announces the launch of Intergaze, a zero-gas chain based on Initia
NFT application chain Stargaze announced the launch of Intergaze, a zero-gas chain based on the Rollup interoperability protocol Initia. Intergaze is designed for creators and NFTs and is supported by Initia's Interwoven Stack. It can be seamlessly minted, sent and traded on any chain regardless of the VM used.
▌Hashed CEO: Artificial intelligence has a "black box" problem
Simon Kim, CEO of crypto venture capital fund Hashed, said in an interview that he believes the future of artificial intelligence depends on a fundamental shift: breaking the black box of centralized models such as OpenAI and building a decentralized, transparent ecosystem driven by blockchain.
“AI is being centralized. OpenAI is not open and is controlled by very few people, so this is very dangerous. Making this [closed-source] base model is like making a ‘god’, but we don’t know how it works.” Kim believes that open source AI models like Meta’s Llama are an example of AI being built with decentralization and transparency in mind.
▌Multicoin submits a “smart issuance” proposal on Solana, proposing to adjust the SOL issuance rate to a market-based solution
Multicoin Capital, one of Solana’s early investors, is now trying to change the inflation mechanism of the Solana network. Tushar Jain and Vishal Kankani, two partners at Multicoin Capital, submitted a “smart issuance” proposal on Solana, proposing to adjust the issuance of SOL from the current fixed schedule to a market-based solution.
Multicoin's proposal could reduce SOL inflation. In Solana terms, inflation refers to the network issuing SOL to validators who run the Solana software and help build the blockchain. Validators then pass these issued SOL and some MEV (miner extractable value) rewards to stakers who delegate SOL to them.
Cryptocurrency
▌TRM Labs: Illegal transaction volume on the chain fell 24% to $45 billion in 2024, and TRON remained the main blockchain for illegal activities
Blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs found that illegal transaction volume on the cryptocurrency chain fell 24% to $45 billion in 2024, accounting for only 0.4% of the overall crypto transaction volume. Although total transaction volume increased 56% last year to $10.6 trillion, the efforts of law enforcement agencies and industry cooperation have effectively curbed illegal activities. TRON's illegal transactions have dropped significantly, with illegal transactions decreasing by $6 billion, almost halving the proportion, thanks to its T3 financial crime unit established in cooperation with Tether and TRM Labs. However, TRON is still the main blockchain for illegal activities, accounting for 58% of the total illegal transaction volume, attracting criminals with low transaction fees and popular stablecoins. The report also shows that sanctions violations account for one-third of illegal transactions, and scams and frauds account for a quarter, with fraud-related capital inflows falling 40% from last year. At the same time, ransomware attacks and terrorist financing have increased, especially those carried out by North Korean and Russian hackers.
▌Viewpoint: The United States buying altcoins as strategic reserves is an absurd idea that will never happen
Quinn Thompson, founder of hedge fund Lekker Capital, said that the United States buying altcoins as strategic reserves is an absurd idea that will never happen. Earlier, the New York Post reported that Trump "accepted" the idea of creating tokens including SOL, XRP and Circle's USDC stablecoin as "America's priority strategic reserve." Quinn Thompson explained: "The government has no power to bet venture capital on altcoins. Rumors about setting up strategic reserves for other non-BTC currencies are another example of people taking bad ideas as facts." Bloomberg analyst: SEC approval of Solana or XRP ETF is just a matter of "time" Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart wrote on the X platform: "I think it's only a matter of time, not a matter of 'whether', for the SEC to approve Solana or XRP ETFs, but the Litecoin ETF may be approved first-mainly because the SEC has not accused Litecoin of being a security."
▌US SEC Chairman: Bitcoin is like gold, 7 billion people around the world want to trade it
In an interview, Gary Gensler, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said, "Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset, but 7 billion people around the world want to trade it. Just like we have had gold for 10,000 years, we now have Bitcoin."
In terms of regulatory stance, Gensler pointed out that the SEC has never classified Bitcoin as a security. For thousands of other crypto projects, he emphasized the need to prove their actual use cases and fundamental value. When the host quipped, "You must hold Bitcoin," Gensler said he had never held any cryptocurrency in the past 7-8 years. The host then joked, "Now you can hold it because you are about to step down as SEC Chairman."
▌Standard Chartered Bank: If Bitcoin falls below the $90,000 support level, it will face a 10% retracement risk
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, warned that if Bitcoin "falls below $90,000", a downtrend may occur.
Kendrick emphasized in a report on Tuesday that there is a "convexity risk" due to the increased possibility of liquidation of spot exchange-traded funds, which may push the price of Bitcoin below $80,000 in the short term.
Kendrick said: "We believe that Bitcoin's break below $90,000 will lead to a further decline of 10% in the short term to the low $80,000s. All other digital assets are likely to follow suit and we recommend accumulating long positions again once the pullback is over."
▌Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin faces consolidation risks amid surging Treasury yields and bleak economic outlook
According to Bitfinex's latest Alpha report, Bitcoin's relative strength amid macro pressures can be attributed to optimism about potential regulatory changes. President-elect Donald Trump's new term and the prospect of more favorable cryptocurrency policies have boosted market confidence, providing a counterweight to broader risk asset challenges.
With Bitcoin hovering around the key support level of $90,000, the market may enter a range-bound environment characterized by a period of consolidation. The changing macroeconomic backdrop of rising Treasury yields, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and ETF outflows suggest a challenging road ahead for risk assets. However, Bitcoin’s resilience compared to traditional stocks suggests it may continue to attract investor interest, primarily as regulation becomes clearer. Currently, Bitcoin holders face a balancing act of coping with macroeconomic headwinds while waiting for potential tailwinds from policy and sentiment changes. Viewpoint: Traditional markets are dominating cryptocurrency price movements, and ETF trading time restrictions may increase volatility during the opening hours Frank Chaparro, director of special projects at The Block, expressed his market view that with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, traditional market forces are dominating cryptocurrency price movements. After the release of U.S. employment data on January 12, the crypto market showed a high degree of linkage with the Nasdaq index, highlighting the profound impact of the macro economy on the market.
Flowdesk analyst Greg Guttas pointed out that the mismatch between ETF trading time limits (6.5 hours per day) and the 24/7 trading attributes of cryptocurrencies may increase volatility during the opening hours. Although the crypto industry faces favorable factors such as an improved regulatory environment and increased participation in the banking industry, current market sentiment suggests that these positive factors may be difficult to offset the pressure brought by macroeconomic headwinds.
Important Economic Dynamics
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 97.3%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.7%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by March is 70.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 29.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.7%.
▌UBS: The slow and steady sell-off of U.S. bonds may continue
UBS strategist Bhanu Baweja and others said that the U.S. bond sell-off since September has clearly been characterized by "slow and steady", which "should cause concern for bond bulls". "Volatility remains low, and although there are concerns, there is no panic," they wrote in the report. They warned that "the slow and volatile nature of the sell-off may mean that this may continue."
▌Markets expect a 90% chance of a Bank of Japan rate hike in January, which could undermine crypto's upward momentum
Investors are looking ahead to Trump's inauguration on January 20, which could be a key catalyst for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices. However, on January 24, the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates. According to a chart shared by analyst Michael Kramer on the X platform, the market currently expects a 90% chance of a rate hike on January 24. Previously, the Bank of Japan's rate hike caused chaos in traditional and digital asset markets. This was a key catalyst for the reversal of the yen carry trade in early August, causing Bitcoin to plummet to $49,000. Traders may be preparing for another sell-off this time.
▌Bank of England member Taylor: The basic expectation for a rate cut this year is about 100 basis points
Bank of England member Taylor said that the basic expectation for a rate cut this year is about 100 basis points.
▌Barclays postpones the expected time for the Fed to end quantitative tightening to September
Barclays currently predicts that the Fed's quantitative tightening will end in September, not March, citing the fact that the minutes released last month did not mention the reduction of the balance sheet. Barclays strategist Joseph Abate wrote in a report that the Fed's decision to stop the reduction of the balance sheet may depend more on the ratio of reserves to bank assets than on a specific date. Barclays assumes that the Fed wants to reduce the ratio of reserves to assets to around 12%, a threshold that could be reached by August 2025 in the absence of a debt ceiling.
▌Qatar, Egypt, and the United States issued a joint statement: ensuring the full implementation of the three phases of the Gaza ceasefire agreement
Qatar, Egypt, and the United States issued a joint statement on the evening of January 15, local time, announcing that Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) have reached an agreement on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detained persons. The statement said that the agreement aims to achieve a permanent ceasefire and restore peace in the Gaza Strip. The statement also stated that the agreement will take effect on January 19, 2025 and will be implemented in three phases. The first phase will last for 42 days. The two sides will achieve a ceasefire and exchange detained persons, the Israeli army will withdraw from densely populated areas of Gaza, the displaced people in Gaza will return to their homes in northern Gaza, and more humanitarian aid will enter the Gaza Strip. The statement also stated that Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, as guarantors of the agreement, aim to ensure the full implementation of the three phases of the agreement. At the same time, the guarantor countries will coordinate with the United Nations and international partners to rapidly and continuously increase humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip in accordance with the agreement. The guarantor countries urge the international community to provide support for this. Earlier news, Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
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