Trump's "Life Photo" Saved the Crypto Circle

Since the weekend, the spotlight of the whole world seems to be on one person - Trump. The photo of him waving with one hand raised high, carrying the inspiration of the Statue of Liberty, stimulates the vigorous hearts of the people and dominates the headlines of major well-known media. It can be said that he is in the limelight. Some people even jokingly call Trump's "life photo released".

But the cause of the incident was a murder. At 18:15 local time on July 13, 2024, when Trump was giving a speech at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, a gunman fired several shots from a high place outside the rally site at the podium where Trump was. After the bullet passed through the glass of the teleprompter in front of Trump, the glass fragments hit and scratched Trump's right ear. The remaining bullets caused one death and two serious injuries.

After being injured, Trump immediately left the podium under the protection of Secret Service agents, with his face covered in blood and his right hand raised high. According to his description, this was to show the crowd that he was fine, which left this historic image.

Facts have proved that those who survive a great disaster will have good fortune in the future. After showing his courage and bravery in facing political violence as a presidential candidate, Trump's public support rate has soared, and the crypto industry, which is highly supported by him, has also ushered in the dawn of hope.

Since July 13, the long-dormant cryptocurrency has once again exerted its strength. Bitcoin has reversed its decline and broken through $60,000 and has been rising all the way. It is now stable above $63,000. ETH has followed closely and stood at $3,400 again. After the bloodbath of the bulls, the bears were also hit hard, with more than $90 million liquidated on July 14.

There is more than one piece of good news. First of all, the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the Fed has once again sounded dovish. On July 15, local time, Fed Chairman Powell said in an interview that recent data has strengthened people's confidence in falling inflation. If the Fed waits until the inflation rate reaches 2% before cutting interest rates, it will wait too long, but the Fed is waiting for more good data to confirm that inflation is falling. And Fed Goolsbee also said that the interest rate cut will be guaranteed soon.

Although this has not changed the market's forecast for stable interest rates in August, it has increased expectations for a substantial interest rate cut in September. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 94.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 5.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0.0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 88.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 11.0%.

Secondly, the ETF inflow has improved. Since the July 5th plunge, the ETF net inflow has improved significantly and has shown signs of expansion, with an average daily inflow of 100 million. On July 12 alone, $310 million flowed in, reflecting the recovery of institutional purchasing power. In fact, institutions are even buying at the bottom. According to IntoTheBlock data, when the price of Bitcoin retreated to $54,200 on July 5, the Bitcoin whale address increased its holdings by 71,000 Bitcoins, worth about $4.3 billion.

At the same time, there is also a relief in selling pressure. A large part of the reason for the sharp drop at the beginning of the month was the insufficient ability to digest the selling pressure caused by limited liquidity, especially when the actual selling pressure of the German government and the pessimistic expectations of Mentougou were superimposed, showing the current situation of selling in Asia and taking over in Europe and the United States. On July 13, the German government address, which was on the mind of the industry, finally cleared 50,000 BTC, heralding the final end of the sell-off.

German government address has been cleared, source: Arkham

Finally and more importantly, the global male protagonist Trump in recent days.

Since last year, Trump has changed his previous style and has become known as a supporter of encryption, frequently calling for encryption in public. On May 9, Trump said he would accept cryptocurrencies as campaign donations and encourage voters who support cryptocurrencies to vote.

On May 26, Trump delivered a speech at the Libertarian Party National Convention in Washington, DC, promising to ensure that the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin is in the United States, rather than being expelled overseas, and even emphasized that he would support the self-custody rights of 50 million cryptocurrency holders across the country.

On June 12, Trump met with representatives of U.S. Bitcoin mining companies and pledged to support crypto mining business. He said that Bitcoin miners would help stabilize the energy supply of the power grid and stressed that "I hope all remaining Bitcoins will be made in the United States and will speak for miners in the White House."

On July 15, Trump chose Senator James David Vance (J.D. Vance) as his vice presidential candidate. The 39-year-old vice president is also a well-known crypto supporter. He is not only the holder of $250,000 in Bitcoin, but also has repeatedly supported cryptocurrencies in public and criticized the SEC's regulatory model. Last month, he also drafted a draft bill on reforming the way digital assets are regulated.

In addition, even though he had been shot, Trump insisted on attending the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Tennessee on July 25 and delivering a speech, which also attracted the favor of many crypto people.

Looking at all his words and deeds, regardless of whether it is just for votes, compared with Biden's more cautious attitude, Trump's overtures are already obvious. Therefore, in the field of encryption, Trump has become the presidential successor favored by many industry professionals, and the industry hopes that he will achieve a new regulatory path after entering the White House.

In addition to the direct regulatory relaxation, political propositions also have a positive direction. The main theme of Trump's current election speech is "loose domestic environment and tight foreign trade", advocating lowering corporate income tax, tightening immigration policies, returning to traditional energy, canceling green subsidies for new energy vehicles and batteries, and implementing high tariff policies. It can be seen that his political propositions will have an impact on inflation, and there is a downside risk for the US dollar, which will in turn strengthen the price effect of safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin.

Trump and Biden's main policy proposals, source: donaldjtrump.com, whitehouse.gov, CICC Research Department

And favor, in the election world, it is based on real money. Trump raised $331 million in campaign funds in the second quarter, which exceeded the $264 million raised by Biden and the Democratic National Committee in the second quarter. The crypto industry also contributed a lot. For example, Palantir's Lonsdale and cryptocurrency billionaires Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss are the main donors to the super PAC supporting Trump. Lonsdale donated $1 million through his company Lonsdale Enterprises Inc., and the Winklevoss brothers each donated $250,000.

After the shooting, Trump dominated the global marketing, and the global market predicted that he would win the presidential election. Under the influence of this news, the crypto market reacted violently. Bitcoin rose in response, quickly breaking through $60,000. The price rose by about 9% over the weekend and then continued to rise to $64,000. The much-criticized altcoins also rose again, and the sector rose by 10%. Cryptocurrency stocks also climbed on Monday, with mining company Cipher Mining rising 26% to $5.88 and crypto or mining company Hut 8 rising 17% to $19.87.

While bringing excitement to the market, Trump, the popular candidate, once again received a strong return from cryptocurrencies. Just after the shooting, Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey mentioned plans to raise $15 million for Trump's campaign later in July. The support rate of crypto voters is also rising sharply. On the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, Trump's probability of winning the 2024 US presidential election has risen to 70%, setting a new high. In contrast, Biden's probability of winning is only 18%.

In addition to the rise of the market, there is a special category that is also rising and falling with Trump's election progress.

Although there have been special political-themed MEMEs before, this year, the PoliFi MEME category has become more prominent. The core is Trump himself. It is difficult to find a MEME carrier that can bring together so many topics. Not only is he a former president, he is also scandal-ridden, and he may even be the first former president in American history to be convicted of 34 crimes. Even if the label of president is excluded, the real estate tycoon and his crazy eye-catching style make the attention economy fully reflected in him.

According to CoinMarketCap data, 9 of the top 10 PoliFi tokens with certified market value are Trump series tokens, and only one Biden is on the list, namely MAGA (TRUMP), MAGA (MAGA), Super Trump Coin (STRUMP), MAGA VP (MVP), Baby Trump (BSC) (BABY TRUMP), BABY TRUMP (BABY TRUMP), Make America Based Again (MABA), TrumpCoin (DJT), Doland Tremp (TREMP), Jeo Boden (BODEN).

Among them, MAGA (TRUMP) has the highest market value of $360 million due to its nearly one-year history, while other emerging tokens are mostly generated by hype this year, with low market value, mostly floating in tens of millions of dollars. These Trump series currencies, without exception, have seen a sharp rise after the release of the life photos. MAGA (TRUMP) rose directly from $6.2 to $10.25, with a one-hour increase of more than 65.32%, and is now at $8.26. MAGA (MAGA) was not to be outdone, soaring 33% in one hour. From the perspective of the entire sector, thanks to Trump's popularity, the sector's average increase in 7 days exceeded 25%.

MAGA (TRUMP) price trend in the past week, source: CoinMarketCap

After the shooting, MEME tokens named after the incident also emerged in an endless stream. According to gmgn data, there are 24 tokens named Fight on Solana and 23 on Ethereum. Due to the injury to the left ear, the number of tokens named EAR on Solana is as high as 11. And just last night, Trump once again posted a social email dynamic with the text "Don't be afraid (FEAR NOT), I am Trump, I will make America great again!" After the news was released, a MEME named "FEAR NOT" immediately appeared on Solana, and it rose more than 33 times in 2 hours.

Time difference races against time, and getting rich in the election seems to have come true at this moment. According to BlockBeats' tracking, an address starting with LCJFe bought FIGHT at $0.00017 and realized a floating profit of $575,900, an increase of more than 100 times. Another address starting with CLegS bought five related tokens, FIGHT, EAR, FIST, SURVIVOR and MAGA, and also brought a profit of $470,000.

Of course, not everyone is making a profit. After all, it is not surprising to take over at a high position in a zero-sum game. But from the perspective of PoliFi alone, the Trump-themed PoliFi token still has a long hype cycle. In addition to the November election being an important node, the news about Trump himself is also particularly important. Given his love of Twitter governance and his activeness in social media, there are certain narratives to support both the election and the defeat, and the drama of skyrocketing and plummeting will undoubtedly be staged frequently.

On the other hand, returning to the election, the political arena in the United States is treacherous. The assassination of Trump reflects that the political game of the United States has fallen into a muddy water area of ​​life and death, and the entanglement of contradictions and violence reflects the current problems of the United States. The old order that the establishment has maintained for nearly three decades is gradually collapsing, and the trend of political polarization is intensifying in the United States. It is precisely because of this that Trump, who is considered anti-traditional by various people, can stand out with the non-mainstream label of "anti-globalization". After all, only in the struggle can the image of a tough guy be more admired as a hero than a moderate style.

At present, for the sake of economy and development, the whole world is watching this election, and the crypto industry is no exception. It is inevitable that the crypto industry will be involved in this political turmoil. In other words, cryptocurrency has obviously become part of the polarization characteristics, but can the much-anticipated presidential candidate finally realize the industry's vision? Fortunately, even if not, for the spectators in the crypto circle, this may also be a ticket to board the boat of opportunity next time.