The next president of the United States is about to be announced. Recently, the major global capital markets have reacted strongly, including U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, especially the reaction of the cryptocurrency circle.
From the sentiment of online comments, the funds in the cryptocurrency circle seem to be particularly afraid of Trump's defeat. I feel that this is completely unnecessary.
The biggest feature of the American system is the separation of powers. A president can do a lot, but it is difficult to make earth-shaking changes.
Trump has been bullish on crypto in recent months, making all kinds of exaggerated remarks, claiming to turn the United States into a paradise for encrypted digital currencies. But can these be taken seriously? It is more rational to doubt.
For example, Trump said that BTC should be regarded as a strategic reserve of the United States. This... The president doesn’t even have the final say on the US gold reserves. If you still believe that the US is a market economy, then the gold reserves must be based on economic and financial stability. How can the president decide?
If the president can decide to include Bitcoin in the strategic reserve, then what are the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve doing, and what is the legislation of Congress doing?
If the emperor is really so awesome, why not just appoint himself as president? What else is there to choose?
That is, Trump is talking about Bitcoin. If he talks about a certain stock, the SEC will probably take him to court and accuse him of market manipulation.
Just look at the ban on TikTok in the United States. During his last term, the emperor wanted to kill TikTok, and the Biden administration also had this intention, but there has been no clear result so far. This is just dealing with a company, and it is not something that can be decided by a president. Count the games involved, including presidential executive orders, national security reviews, congressional discussions, and multiple court interventions. The final decision-making power is dispersed among multiple departments. The president's decision-making power is indeed limited.
This has to be said to be the advantage of the American system. The change of the presidency will not lead to major changes in national policies and livelihood issues.
Looking at Chinese history, one of the biggest problems of the imperial power for more than 2,000 years is the issue of succession. The current succession system in the United States is very worth learning.
Have the coin friends watched too many palace fighting dramas and think that changing the president can have a revolutionary impact on the coin circle.
Alas, if I continue to talk about it, I will become a US braggart.
In addition, I think Trump's eating style in the coin circle is quite ugly.
On Opensea, you can find a total of four NFT projects directly related to Trump. All of them are directly related to Trump. Buying NFTs can get special benefits, such as a part of Trump’s debate suit, participation in golf club dinners, etc. [1]. These NFTs are all garbage without exception.
Just last month, the Trump family launched another DeFi project, WLF. I hope it won’t end badly this time.
If anyone else were to launch these projects, they would probably be scolded in the cryptocurrency circle, but as the president, he can make some money in the cryptocurrency circle as advertising fees paid to him by the industry. However, I think this advertising fee is very worthwhile. Trump is undoubtedly the top star in the world today. It is a great deal for the cryptocurrency circle to make tens of millions of dollars in exchange for a few X-articles praising the cryptocurrency circle.
From the perspective of how hard he advertises for the cryptocurrency community, if he becomes president, it should be good for the cryptocurrency community.
Many people, including Musk, claim that as long as Harris is elected, there will be a stock market crash, economic disaster, and World War 3. On the contrary, everyone will achieve prosperity and wealth within three days of Emperor Trump taking office.
Oh, men can't swear like this on Valentine's Day, or they will be struck by lightning.
From the actual economic effect, Biden is very friendly to encrypted digital currencies. He is not bragging. Although he has a little Alzheimer's disease, the ETFs of BTC and ETH really went online during his term, and BTC is a new high.
The US stock market also performed very well during Biden's term.
As Biden's vice president, Harris is more likely to continue Biden's policies.
How come netizens say that Harris's coming to power is to cause a sharp drop in the price of coins? I really don't believe it.
My point is not that who is elected has no impact on the currency circle at all. I just think it is impossible to have an extreme impact. It is normal to slightly increase normal market fluctuations.
Compared with the short-term impact of the president taking office, the more important influencing factor is whether the overall US economy and the global economy can continue to improve.
No matter who is elected, the real impact on the trend of the crypto market and other capital markets is the US economic fundamentals, including inflation levels, employment data, interest rate policies and international economic conditions. These economic factors determine the liquidity of the market and the risk preferences of investors, rather than a single political leader. Therefore, paying attention to the direction of the macro economy is the key to judging the long-term trend of the market, rather than being obsessed with the short-term fluctuations caused by the change of leadership.
Finally, let's have some fun and guess the election results.
I guess Trump will win.
My reason is: Musk is too far-sighted.
When Musk bought Twitter two years ago, he said he would buy it in April 2022, and the deal was completed in October. At that time, I felt that Musk had changed, and was no longer great. Didn't he do things that no one else did before? He should have been bragging about immigrating to Mars. Why is he spending almost all of his wealth to buy Twitter now, a social product that has long been a hot topic among entrepreneurs? How mediocre he has become.
I thought at that time that he bought Twitter just to have a greater influence.
But in this year's US presidential election, X.com has become the center of the campaign game and Musk's biggest political capital (probably one of Trump's biggest political capitals).
Two years ago, he started to lay out this kind of layout, and spent almost all of his wealth on this layout. This can be said to be (half) a desperate move.
Just thinking about it is amazing.
Now, spending 40 billion to buy x, now x has become the world's largest political topic stage, Musk has won, this business is much more successful than bragging about going to Mars.
Compared with Musk's operation, I think the combination of the current President Biden and his current presidential candidate Harris, because there was a change of positions in the middle, is completely impossible to have a similar long-term layout.
So, I think Trump will win.
Catherine
Kikyo
Weatherly
Anais