All victories come from persistence in belief. Believe in the power of belief, and we will never be disappointed here. Welcome to follow Starry Sky Value Investment, there must always be someone looking up at the stars.
Bitcoin bottomed out and rebounded overnight, standing back above 98K. Before writing the article, I happened to see the daily data sent by the assistant in the member group. In the past three days, Bitcoin ETF has outflowed nearly 1.2 billion US dollars, with a net outflow of 338 million US dollars in a single day. On the contrary, Ethereum has become a net inflow, with 53.54 million US dollars coming in. It's a bit mysterious.
Speaking of this, many people are cursing Ethereum for failing to break through 4K. Even Massari's 24-25 industry report summary has a special chapter to lash out at Ethereum, saying that Solana is too tight, too old, and has no new ideas. Anyway, there are a lot of negative news. Then I just glanced at it and it was too boring to watch. I suggest that everyone doesn't watch it.
What is the real situation? Putting aside the development of the Ethereum ecosystem in recent years, what is the situation purely based on the price? Today, I was still talking about this as a cold joke in the member group:
“At the end of December 2020, four years ago, the main upward trend of the crypto bull market had begun. The price of Bitcoin was 29,000 US dollars, which was about 145% of the highest point of the previous bull market. The price of Ethereum was 760u, which was 54% of the highest point of the previous bull market. Now another round of halving bull market has begun. The price of Bitcoin is 98,000, which is 142% of the highest point of the previous bull market. The price of Ethereum is 3,500u, which is 71.8% of the highest point of the previous cycle. ”
Even in Solana, which is highly recognized by everyone for its strength, I think most people actually didn't make money. They are all listening to this and that, constantly switching positions, and moving around. The more they move, the less coins they have. In the end, they come to ask for guidance and ask me if this coin can be saved or that coin can be saved?
It is likely that there is no hope. I'm not talking about the coins, but the people. Don't think too highly of me. We are all retail investors. I just might have a little more money, but the essence is the same. The concepts and resources of retail investors have almost zero impact on the market. Don't believe it? Let me show you another data. From December 11 to December 18, the number of Bitcoin holding addresses increased by 103,000. Looking at the K-line, the worst drop was in this short period of time. Why? The addresses with the largest increase are those holding 0 to 0.01 coins, and the cumulative increase in the number of Bitcoins is only 373.59, with a current value of 36 million US dollars. At the same time, the number of addresses in the top ten decreased by one, and the number of bitcoins decreased by 46,078; the number of addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 coins decreased by 19, and the number of bitcoins decreased by 29,124. The market is determined by large investors, which is the reason for the decline. But the reason why the decline cannot be stopped is that there are also large investors taking over. The number of addresses holding 100 to 1,000 coins increased by 138, and the number of coins held increased by 90,000. Retail investors are really shaky in this market. They don’t have too many trump cards to play, and they can’t stand the tossing. In the last round of bull-bear cycle, a friend took out 6 million yuan to buy the bottom. I told him to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum. Now the price is going crazy, so I have to congratulate him and show off my wealth in front of others. But when I asked him, I found out that he still lost 820,000 yuan. I was surprised, but after asking him, I understood.
The reason is, first of all, I didn't buy enough U, only 1.5 million, and then I didn't listen to it completely, I only bought 500,000 ETH, and then I devoted myself to studying various alpha opportunities, Bitcoin's second-layer ecosystem, TON ecosystem, Solana & meme, LSD, and basically lost the rest. It is said that the 500,000 ETH bottom was also a profit, but I heard all kinds of rumors and news, constantly switching positions, and operating like a tiger...
Of course, there are still many people who are willing to follow my advice and guidance. In the bear market, we relied on our strategy and made drastic adjustments to our chips, exchanged a lot of bitcoins, and are very comfortable now, and will be even more comfortable in the future.
Many people like to brag, "I made a lot of money on small coins with my knowledge", but it's actually just luck. People with enough knowledge will definitely choose Bitcoin. Let alone some KOLs and bloggers who don't understand. I have met several top OGs in the past few days. They made a lot of money and started funds. They have more industry resources and insider information than us, but no one has outperformed Bitcoin.
Earlier, I talked to a top VC in Shanghai, I won't mention his name. The investment research report they made is very forward-looking, saying that if this round of ETF is passed, it will bring at least 30B US dollars of incremental funds to Bitcoin. This is a very powerful judgment. However, the problem is that they chose to go all-in on the second layer of Bitcoin. It's not that they are stupid, because if they only buy Bitcoin, they will not be explained to LP. After all, they can buy it themselves.
As a result, many institutions have stopped emphasizing the rate of return. On the one hand, they really haven’t run Bitcoin, so they are too embarrassed to talk about it; on the other hand, it may make LPs have the mentality of "I might as well buy Bitcoin myself"... So VCs are all saying "support innovation" and "witness the future of the future" blah blah...
Then the projects they invested in are all locked, and the first ones to run are market makers, project parties, and airdrop parties. They want to use the Internet's way of playing, but the results are extremely tragic, especially the third- and fourth-rate VCs, who are completely bullied. It’s not over yet. VC companies have no business, so they start to speculate in cryptocurrencies, play with MEME, play with this and that, and lose money like leeks...
So, it’s difficult for these VCs to speculate in cryptocurrencies and play with small coins. Why do retail investors have heavy positions? Apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum, if you want to make money, you have to spend more than ten hours a day in the crypto industry and have your own analytical ability. Many people have their own jobs and don’t have that much time. The best way is to configure Bitcoin well, and use the remaining little money to copy homework from people who can get results, so as not to waste the dividends of the early industry.
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