Whales quietly build positions while retail investors wait and see: Are altcoins about to explode?

By Ben Fairbank

A friend recently described the current cryptocurrency market as a broken record—Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading sideways, while altcoins are hitting resistance levels for what feels like an eternity, with many hitting far more than the typical three times before a confirmation or failure. If you're new to the market, this silence can be deafening. After all the headlines about ETFs, institutional influx, and the halving cycle, why hasn't the altcoin bull run arrived yet?

Veterans who have weathered previous cycles understand that these boring periods are a time to build wealth, not to cash out. What feels like an eternity to newcomers remains a period of fear and panic for veterans, who know time is running out to finalize their positions. In 2017 and 2021, we saw money pour into Bitcoin, flow into Ethereum, and then, within weeks, explode into altcoins. This time, the process is slower and involves a much larger group of participants. Understanding why the market stalls, and why it's a feature, not a bug, could mean the difference between increasing your holdings in the biggest bull run of your lifetime or handing it over to the whales. Your actions now will determine the ultimate outcome. The Four-Year Cycle: Why is it so late this time? Cryptocurrency bull markets follow a remarkably reliable rotational pattern. Historically, there have been four phases: Bitcoin leads the rally, Ethereum begins to outperform, funds rotate into large-cap altcoins, and finally, a frenzied "alt season" sends small-cap coins into a parabolic rally. These phases typically complete within 18 months of the Bitcoin halving. I've always believed that history is the best teacher; a pattern is a pattern until it ceases to be. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin and most large-cap cryptocurrencies reached new highs approximately 2-3 months earlier than now. According to Glassnode's cycle comparison, Bitcoin should have peaked by now, but it hasn't. I've repeatedly said that the longer it takes, the higher the gains will be this time, but am I right? The only certainty in life is that no one knows the answer. However, I view this as the sinking of the Titanic, and the Titanic is today's traditional monetary system. Bitcoin and altcoins are the lifeboats, and more people are seeking to board than ever before. The difference is that retail investors are men, the group least likely to secure safe passage. This analogy may be crude, but I think it's apt—the beauty of a theory is that only time will tell, and history shows us that this is the law. Cycle extension theorists suggest that each bull market lasts longer than the previous one, approximately 24, 28, and 33 months, respectively. The current cycle could extend to 37 months, with the next major top likely occurring in December 2025. Three indicators worth watching are: BTC dominance falling below 60%, the ETH/BTC exchange rate reaching 0.058, and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Taking into account the September 17th rate cut (currently with an 87% probability), the market could theoretically begin around September 10th. Assuming the past three altcoin seasons lasted 8, 10, and 14 weeks, respectively, the 14-week period would extend to December 24th (if it begins on September 10th). I predict a date because topping is dangerous, and setting a target exit price and date is crucial. Therefore, I've set December 24th for myself, regardless of whether I'm right or wrong. Those accustomed to the adrenaline rush of 2017 or 2021 will find this lag frustrating, but that's also why the next rally could be spectacular. We're in the sweet spot between complacency and optimism, the rubber band taut but not yet broken. Signals from the altcoin market: The total market capitalization of all altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) has been in a four-year compression cycle since 2021. The chart shows rising bottoms, indicating persistent buying pressure hitting overhead resistance that repeatedly refuses to break through. Each blow weakens the ceiling, and the final breakout is often violent. Some coins have already struck eight times, which often means "big players are quietly boarding the lifeboats." On-chain data confirms this tension: 70% of the top 50 altcoins are currently outperforming Bitcoin on a monthly basis, a strong signal of capital rotation—numbers don't lie. Bitcoin's dominance rate has fallen below key support for the first time since late 2024, historically a sign of altcoin season. Analysts monitoring the "OTHERS" chart (market capitalization of all coins outside the top ten) have found that it replicates the pattern of a sharp recovery after the 2024 decline. If Bitcoin and the S&P 500 break out together, the altcoin sector could reach $570 billion. But the breakthrough hasn't happened yet. Why? Macro headwinds have dampened risk appetite, and liquidity is scarce. This is certainly true for retail investors, but we've seen companies like MicroStrategy shifting their treasuries into Bitcoin, and some into Ethereum. This is a truly dramatic reversal, and I wonder how much more signal people need. Why are macro factors weighing on the market? Cryptocurrency is no longer an isolated asset. Binance research shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional bonds has continued to strengthen since 2020. During the 2022 interest rate hike cycle, Bitcoin and bond prices fell, demonstrating that cryptocurrencies are now behaving like high-beta risk assets, sensitive to liquidity conditions. This is why I say this is the last major bull run. Imagine if this bull run plays out as I predict, it will make the crypto market impossible to ignore; it will become part of the mainstream. The bond market weathered a storm in the first and second quarters of 2025: the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 3.8% to nearly 4.6%, the MOVE index (bond market volatility) soared to 139, and high-yield credit spreads widened by 202 basis points. Macro drivers include tariff uncertainty, stubborn inflation, and record government debt issuance. Binance analysts warn that continued macro uncertainty suggests range-bound trading, and a soft landing scenario could trigger a rebound. Essentially, we're waiting for a trigger. These headwinds are forcing even cryptocurrency believers to monitor the Fed's schedule. Bitcoin has been trapped in the $102,000-$115,000 range for months. As long as it holds $100,000, the bull market structure is complete. This is why the Fed's rate cut could be a key turning point—the liquidity injection could be the catalyst for the next wave. I believe the ETH/BTC ratio doesn't necessarily need to reach 0.058 this time, as currencies like SOL are taking a larger market share. The market is evolving, and our understanding needs to keep pace. Why does this cycle feel different? A later start, a bigger stage. Glassnode data shows we're several months behind previous cycles. Veteran trader Peter Brandt gives a 30% probability of Bitcoin's peak, while analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes the cycle is extending, pointing to a 37-month timeline. The divergence itself reflects the introduction of new variables: macroeconomic policies, ETFs, corporate funding, and more. Miles Deutscher's AI-powered "Altcoin Rally Score" found that earlier-cycle altcoins surged by thousands of percentage points, but this time most underperformed Bitcoin. He attributes this to tight monetary policy, institutional preference for BTC, Ethereum's inability to outperform BTC, and waning retail interest. His model awaits the alignment of four signals: a decline in BTC dominance, a breakout in ETH/BTC, a rise in the altcoin index, and improved retail sentiment. Upon alignment, he anticipates a shorter, more selective rally focused on real-world application sectors. That said, MeMe coins remain dominant, and applications are a lagging indicator. The TOTAL3 chart shows a four-year consolidation for altcoins, with altcoin dominance reaching a cycle high on August 14th but not a new all-time high, and subsequently falling below $1.6 trillion. Technical analysis suggests the correction may conclude around $1.35-1.43 trillion, with small-cap coins likely to experience pressure before a surge in the fourth quarter. Evolution of Investor Behavior: While past altcoin seasons began with retail FOMO and Dogecoin copycats, today's may be driven by more rational catalysts: the tokenization of real-world assets, institutional ETH staking, and regulated ETFs. Unlike the frenzy of 2021, new coin supply and regulatory scrutiny mean the rebound is likely sector-specific rather than widespread. My personal view is that the crypto market is like a dish: it starts with just three simple ingredients, and each bull market adds new ingredients, making the flavor complex and bringing unexpected changes. As an early adopter, I look forward to seeing people truly build products and companies that align with value. At that moment, the "magic" of the crypto market may disappear. Once you're in this space, it's hard to leave, but I'm growing weary of the current state and measurement methods. I look forward to continuing to build on technology, rather than reacting to token prices and small investors, who rarely align with company goals. Why does it feel so slow? Because it's the buildup to a spring. Altcoin seasons rarely begin during Bitcoin's price discovery period; they typically occur after Bitcoin surges over 200% and then trades sideways, triggering a rotation into the market. Yieldfund notes that altcoin seasons typically begin when large-cap altcoins like Ethereum and Solana begin to outperform and Bitcoin's dominance rate falls below 54%. This rotation is quietly occurring: 70% of the top altcoins have outperformed BTC, new Ethereum ETFs and staking yields are attracting institutional inflows, and Bitcoin's dominance rate is declining. However, macro pressures are keeping prices trapped in a narrow range. It feels slow because the fuse is still burning. When liquidity eventually returns—whether through a Fed rate cut, an S&P 500 breakout, or clearer crypto ETF regulations—the compressed energy of the TOTAL3 and OTHERS indices could be released in weeks, not months. We've all seen this happen. I waited for a flood of news saying, "I was about to buy, and suddenly it went up. Is it too late now? What should I buy?" Bull market starts always catch people off guard, and the current lull will surprise many. Key Points to Watch When the Fuse Lit Bitcoin Support and Dominance: As long as BTC holds $100,000 and dominance continues to decline, the rotation playbook remains. A breakout above 60% often signals the start of an altcoin season. Ethereum/BTC Ratio: A breakout in ETH/BTC would signal the second phase of a rotation. Ethereum is currently strengthening due to ETF inflows and institutional adoption. Previously, it would have required 0.058, but now it's only at 0.039 (which I consider less significant in this cycle). Macro Catalysts: The Federal Reserve's September meeting, bond market volatility, and tariffs will determine the timing of the return of liquidity. Uncertainty means volatility, while clear signals trigger risk appetite. Altcoin Indicators: Pay attention to altcoin rally signals (Bitcoin share, ETH/BTC, altcoin index, retail sentiment) and other charts showing signs of momentum for mid-cap coins. Conclusion: The current calm isn't a sign of market weakness, but rather a sign of compression. Four years of altcoin consolidation, delayed cyclical peaks, and macro headwinds have fostered enormous potential. The rotational playbook of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins is slowly unfolding. The difference this time is the scale of participation: regulated ETFs, corporate treasuries, real-world assets, and tens of millions more users. When the rubber band breaks, it could be the final explosive rotation I'm hinting at, rewarding those who patiently weather the dull period.

Don't give away your chips out of impatience. The market is quiet because the band is warming up. Be seated when the music starts, but don't forget to leave before it stops. Greed kills, and fear keeps you from ever getting in. Time is running out.