What factors will affect Grayscale's stock price after filing for an IPO?

Deng Tong, Jinse Finance

On November 13, 2025, Grayscale Investments, a US digital currency asset management company, filed for an IPO. The company plans to list its Class A common stock on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol GRAY. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Securities, Jefferies, and Cantor are the lead underwriters. Industry analysts estimate the valuation to be between $30 billion and $33 billion.

I. When will the registration statement take effect?

The day Grayscale filed its documents coincided with the first day that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was expected to resume normal operations after a 43-day government shutdown.

Filing Form S-1 is part of Grayscale Investments' listing process, but it is not yet effective. Based on the SEC's past approval records, it can take weeks or even months for the registration statement to become effective and for the company to be ready for listing.

Grayscale stated in a statement: "The proposed offering is subject to market conditions, and there is no guarantee that the offering will be completed, when it will be completed, or the actual size or other terms of the offering."

Market analysts expect the earliest listing window to be between late 2025 and early 2026.

II. How will the equity structure operate after the IPO?

If approved, the listing will employ an organizational structure designed to ensure that Grayscale's parent company, Digital Currency Group, maintains firm control over the company. Grayscale plans to issue two types of stock, rather than a traditional equity structure: one with standard voting rights and full financial interest, and another with higher voting rights but no economic interest.

Technology companies have used similar structures to raise funds while avoiding losing strategic control. The company also employed a hybrid structure called "Up-C"—a structure often used by private equity firms transitioning to public listings. Under this structure, the listed entity operates as a C-company, while Grayscale's long-term business continues to operate as a limited liability company (LLC). Existing LLC shareholders retain their economic interests, while new investors acquire shares in the publicly traded company. This arrangement improves tax efficiency and makes it easier for the company to expand during the transition to a publicly traded company. III. What is the financial strategy behind this IPO? Grayscale plans to use an "up-acquisition" model, using the funds raised from the IPO to acquire equity from existing shareholders, rather than directly injecting funds into its core business. Its core business will remain an independent limited liability company. This strategy aims to help Grayscale maximize its growth potential while ensuring the stability of its existing structure.

IV. How is Grayscale's profitability?

Grayscale's financial situation is mixed. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $318.7 million, lower than $397.9 million in the same period last year. Its revenue mainly comes from management fees, but management fee income has been declining as competition in passive cryptocurrency products intensifies. The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was $203.3 million, lower than $233.7 million in the same period last year.

IV. How profitable is Grayscale?

Grayscale's financial situation is mixed. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $218.7 million, lower than $233.7 million in the same period last year.

V. Industry Perspectives Grayscale Chairman Barry Silbert stated, “We are pioneers in enabling investors to access the fastest-growing asset class in recent years and helping them scale their investments. Our platform offers investors diversified digital asset investment opportunities in a capital-efficient, cash-generating asset class with a management fee model.” Matt Kennedy, Senior Strategist at Renaissance Capital, which focuses on IPO research and ETFs, said, “The upcoming 2026 midterm elections could reshape the cryptocurrency landscape. I expect many cryptocurrency companies, such as Grayscale and BitGo, to want to go public before the uncertainties arise.” Edward Best, Co-Head of Capital Markets Group at Willkie Farr & Gallagher, said, “With Thanksgiving just two weeks away, we actually expect IPOs to not resume until early December, with some trading activity likely to resume in early January. Furthermore, most companies will need to file for 2025…” Amendments to the third-quarter financial statements could delay their filing or slightly slow down the SEC's review process. VI. What factors might affect Grayscale's stock price? 1. Crypto Market Performance Grayscale's stock performance is likely to correlate with the price movements of Bitcoin and broader altcoins. When cryptocurrency prices rise, investor interest in related products increases, driving up assets under management (AUM) and fees. Conversely, bear markets tend to reduce inflows and compress valuations. 2. ETF Fund Flows and Performance If Grayscale's ETFs perform well and attract funds, this will have a positive impact on its business model. ETF outflows or prices below net asset value could raise concerns about product competitiveness. 3. Regulatory Outlook The SEC's stance on new cryptocurrency ETFs, staking, and custody rules could affect investor confidence. Clearer regulations could benefit Grayscale, while unfavorable rulings could limit its future product development. 4. Competition and Innovation Companies like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Bitwise are actively expanding into the cryptocurrency ETF market. Against the backdrop of fee reductions and a wave of innovation, Grayscale's ability to maintain its market share will be closely watched. 5. Influence of the Parent Company Grayscale is part of the DCG Group, which has faced legal and financial scrutiny in recent years. A complete spin-off or rebranding before the IPO could alleviate investor concerns. VII. The Significance of the Grayscale IPO For Grayscale: This move signifies its readiness to enter a more regulated and transparent environment—while this means quarterly reporting and stricter governance, it could also open the door to capital markets and enhance investor confidence. For retail investors: Going public means more traditional investors can indirectly participate in crypto asset management companies through stock ownership, thus reducing the technical, custodial, and compliance barriers associated with directly holding crypto assets. This could lead to increased capital inflows into the crypto market. For the crypto industry: The IPOs of Circle, Grayscale, and others will undoubtedly enhance the crypto industry's reputation within the traditional financial sector and promote compliance. Grayscale becoming one of the first major digital asset management companies to list on a major US exchange further highlights the deepening integration of the cryptocurrency industry with traditional finance. Appendix: Key Milestones in Grayscale's Development 2013: Grayscale launched the Bitcoin Investment Trust, the first publicly traded Bitcoin fund in the United States. 2015: Became a wholly owned subsidiary of DCG. 2020: Assets under management (AUM) exceeded $10 billion during the cryptocurrency bull market. 2021: Filed an application to convert GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF. 2023: Won a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, paving the way for GBTC to become an ETF. 2024: GBTC officially converted to an ETF and began trading on the NYSE Arca. 2025: Continued to expand its ETF product line and diversify into multi-asset crypto products. An IPO application has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Grayscale, founded in 2013, is one of the oldest cryptocurrency investment firms and is part of the Digital Currency Group. The company is best known for its Bitcoin Trust, which provides institutional investors with opportunities to invest in Bitcoin without actually holding Bitcoin assets. Currently, Grayscale operates multiple ETFs, a private equity fund division, and other active and passive cryptocurrency investment products.