What happened in the blockchain industry in this cycle?

About VC

- All VCs with normal rhythm in the last cycle have made money.

- These VCs have expanded the fund size by 3-10 times in this cycle to raise funds again, resulting in too much funds on hand.

- But there are not enough good projects. In order to spend the money, they have to increase the round of financing to raise the valuation, or even get funds that they don’t need.

- Old projects that failed three years ago can also come out to raise funds again.

- This has greatly increased the VC cost of good projects and the psychological expectations of coin holders.

- Neither VCs nor project owners are stupid, and the essence has become a game of cutting LPs. After the project is invested, the coin cannot be issued, and the meeting is very embarrassing.

- Finally, a good project issues coins, so hurry up to PR, and sell the coins after 6 or 12 months of unlocking, and cash out if it is not unlocked.

- In short, VCs don’t make money, and LPs suffer the most.

About new projects

- Mature founders invest the same amount of time in small and large projects, and sell coins the same way, so they only do large projects.

- Large projects = high valuations = infrastructure (infra).

- Infrastructure projects appear in large numbers, but there are no applications or income, so they can only supplement their own volume.

- My own money comes from VC, it's free anyway.

- I understand the Playbook for listing and opening. The goal is to sell coins at the opening. Sell the least coins at the opening with a high valuation in exchange for the most money.

- The buying orders at the opening are exhausted, but you still have to sell coins. It's impossible not to sell coins.

- After a coin opens, the buying orders end and it can only fall, usually for 1-3 days, and it basically can't last more than three days.

- Then create fluctuations and continue to sell coins. If the market is good, it will rise occasionally, and then continue to sell coins.

- In short, the first principle of doing a project is to sell coins. A very small number of projects create value or rely on protocol income.

- Some of the projects with fake volume are actually fake user projects. They will be zeroed out once they are launched. There is no trading volume and the market value is meaningless.

About old projects

- The dead projects use the high-quality Cap table invested three years ago to raise funds again. Most of them use KOL rounds, and a few find funds to take over.

- In order to go public, they continue to raise funds to brush data, but there are no real users and real use cases.

- Unable to be listed on the exchange, they can only bribe other exchanges or DEX to list the currency.

- DEX listing = zeroing out, bribing the exchange = zeroing out (the bribe money must be earned back by selling the currency).

- In short, this type of project can only be zeroed out because they are unlikely to do it seriously.

About the Head Exchange

- The exchange provides on-chain pool services for the project.

- Adding a pool to a coin is good for the project, so the project will definitely give money to the exchange, which is business common sense.

- The exchange needs to please the big investors, and the projects that are in line with the interests of the big investors need to be launched, so all LRT projects must be launched.

- Projects that are in line with their own interests must also be launched, and projects with users, new things, and projects that can compete with other exchanges must be launched.

- Because liquidity is king, listing on the exchange has become the most important part of doing a project.

- The exchange plays an important role in user education and liquidity provision, and should obtain an important position and matching profits.

- Then he will quietly accept your principal.

To sum up, doing a project has become creating an illusory thing. You don’t need to do real things, as long as you can sell coins. There is no difference between VC coins and meme coins.

About ETH

- The big players changed their thinking and became POS. Anyway, it is not POW, nor is it a coin speculation idea, nor is it a deposit and purchase idea, but a freeloading idea.

- The big players do not participate in the real construction and have no direct positive impact on the ETH coin price, including but not limited to making memecoins, pulling high-quality memecoins, and creating a unique ETH culture. They do nothing.

- The only two reasons to buy ETH in this cycle are re-staking and ETF, but this has nothing to do with retail investors, so ETH has no strong reason to buy.

- ETH still has the most developers, nodes and ecological projects, and is the most robust blockchain.

- But the projects on ETH are all scheming, wanting to sell air coins to retail investors, just to make money for themselves.

- In short, it is difficult for retail investors to make money on ETH.

About SOL

- Large investors are in groups, have a big picture, and understand the ideas of retail investors.

- The scale of large investors is 40w-2mil SOL. They spend 1w SOL to make a cult memecoin or find someone to make a memecoin, which is very easy.

- Groups pull memes, make a bunch of small pools of memecoin, and send them to 100-500mil.

- Retail investors are dazzled by so many memecoins and go crazy with FOMO.

- KOLs earn attention by shouting orders and complete wealth transfer, and these coins really rise.

- KOLs form a gradient and shouting range, with top streamers such as Hsaka and Ansem in one tier, some with 100k followers in one tier, and others in another tier (mainly KOCs), shouting coins of different market value ranges, 500mil+, 100-500mil, 10-100mil, and lottery players below 10mil.

- This increases the vitality of the SOL ecosystem and allows retail investors to carry their SOL.

- Because retail investors all hold SOL, they naturally form the SOL maxi army, and the SOL flip ETH sentiment is high, forgetting the risk of SOL rollback and the essence of memecoin is air.

- SOL enters the positive feedback loop stage, the main character calls orders, and retail investors continue to FOMO.

- When will it end? I don’t know. It will end when everyone is disgusted with memecoin.

- In short, SOL has become the best casino and chip in this cycle, and everyone needs SOL.

Judgment

- The memecoin supercycle is established, and 20 memecoins appear in the top 100 market value coins, and a large number of memecoins are between 100-300mil, mainly on SOL.

- Successful memecoin-focused CEXs emerge.

- The project continues to open with a high market value, but the opening valuation is significantly lowered. The PR draft claims that the valuation of the project is reasonable, the pattern is large, and it cherishes its feathers.

- VCs can only find web2 financing in the next round. They are very jealous of the industry, but reporting to LPs will be painful.

- High-quality real-use case projects that do not over-finance VCs (or even no financing at all) begin to appear, using other more decent ways to transfer benefits.

- Audit/security companies that truly create value are gradually being valued, and high-quality audits have become an important part of the industry: BlockSec, Hexagate, Hypernative.

- For non-meme projects, the market returns to favor projects with real income, monopoly, and use cases (hopefully they can innovatively link tokens and businesses).