What is the worrying “October surprise” before the US election?

Source: Zhou Ziheng

The US presidential election is about to be held on November 5 and is now entering a critical period. Due to the fierce election competition, the presidential campaign is vigilant about the surprises that October will bring.

The US presidential election dictionary defines "October surprise" as a major political or economic event or political or moral scandal that damages the character of the US presidential candidate, usually occurring in October when the campaign is at its most intense.

In an era of constant news coverage and 24-hour pursuit of media sensations in the United States, such unexpected surprises may tip the balance of the election in favor of one of the candidates, allowing him to become the helm of the US White House.

One of the most famous "October surprises" in previous US presidential elections was the tape of Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda, broadcast to the world by the Al Jazeera News Channel before the 2004 election. This news competition broke the dominance of Western media over global news for the first time in modern history.

Bin Laden said in his letter that the attacks were the result of US Middle East policy, but he did not threaten to launch further attacks. Despite the unexpected timing of its release, days before the election, the video was seen as strengthening the position of President George W. Bush, who had relied on the image of a determined leader in the fight against terrorism.

The message heightened concerns among American voters about the threat of terrorism, which helped bolster support for Bush at the expense of his rival, John Kerry, who was seen as less confident in this area.

The release of the bin Laden tape came as Democratic candidate John Kerry was on the verge of defeating his opponent, then-President George W. Bush, tipping the scales of victory in the latter's favor and reminding American voters of the severity of the September 11 attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C., and the subsequent importance of continuing the war on terrorism.

Kerry lost the presidential race because of an unreliable video released by a hunted man in a cave in the Tora Bora Mountains in Afghanistan.

Hillary Clinton lost the election because of a message

Hillary Clinton is still prosecuting former FBI Director James Comey for his 2016 election loss, when he quickly sent a message to congressional leaders days before the election to inform them that a large number of private emails lost from Hillary Clinton's tenure as Secretary of State had been discovered.

The October surprise of that year reminded American voters of then-Republican candidate Donald Trump's suspicion that Hillary Clinton was an unreliable person when it comes to keeping state secrets.

It is worth noting here that former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton wrote an article this week warning the Harris campaign that the October election surprise had a serious impact on the election results.

Hillary Clinton will never forget the October surprise, which deprived her of the right to enter the White House after she was just one step away from it. Curiously, Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign was preceded by the leak of a famous video in October of the same year that exposed Donald Trump, in which the latter admitted that he had the ability to get any woman he wanted as long as he was a star in American society.

However, the media leaks against Trump before this election did not lead to a change in the results, because Trump had a solid electoral base that would not be hurt or discouraged by supporting accusations of moral deviation or judicial conviction against him, as happened later.

Trump has always boasted that his voter base has not wavered in its support for him, even if he was seen - as he previously claimed in a famous speech - killing people on an ancient street in New York at four in the morning.

Limited terrorist attacks or widespread political violence processes in the United States before or during the election remain one of the unexpected events in the election, which will undoubtedly affect the balance of victory in favor of a certain candidate.

Trump benefited greatly from the failed assassination attempt in July, and if President Biden had not suddenly withdrawn from the competitive arena, leaving a path for his running mate Harris to run, which is rare in American political history, this would have greatly increased his chances of winning the election.

However, in addition to the unexpected events in October, sometimes serious economic crises (such as the 2008 recession, and the impending collapse of the financial system of the world's largest investment financial company caused by the mortgage crisis, and the exacerbation of the economic crisis caused by the new crown epidemic) can also affect the course of the US presidential election.

Then-presidential candidates Obama and Biden took advantage of these two global crises to achieve electoral victories over their Republican opponents when the Republicans controlled the White House in the 2008 and 2020 elections, respectively.

Netanyahu, Iran, and the October Surprise

Due to the escalation of violence in Gaza and Lebanon, and Netanyahu's desire to achieve his goals in the region, perhaps during these ongoing elections, the possibility of an October incident related to the Middle East and the Gaza war remains high.

Following the calmness shown by Netanyahu when he congratulated President Biden on his victory after the 2020 US election, Netanyahu may also want to provide Trump with a good service to help him win the election and improve personal relations with him.

Netanyahu is well aware that he is not in a good position to attack Iran after the US election due to increasing global and US pressure, so it is very likely that Netanyahu will attack Iranian targets before the US election.

Netanyahu’s arrogant manner completely disregards all the near red lines drawn by the Biden administration, including the attack on the city of Rafah, the continued starvation of Palestinians in Gaza and the violation of their rights, and whenever Biden takes steps to slow down the pace of escalation in the region, Netanyahu responds to these US measures with attacks, thus fueling the raging fires in the region.

Israel’s complete hegemony in the Middle East remains the strategic goal of the Netanyahu government, which is reinforced by its extremist views on the possibility of the current war.

Although the US Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State sent a letter to the Netanyahu government two days ago, calling on it to make room for humanitarian aid to reach the mouths of the hungry and displaced people in Gaza, the Netanyahu government will not care about the threatening tone in this latest message and will ignore and downplay it like previous US threats.

The Netanyahu government will attack Iran earlier, perhaps before the presidential election, so that the next US administration will launch a war against Iran, which is competing with Israel for control of the Middle East.

No doubt, the coming days will reveal what the October surprise will be (if it happens) given the terrible bipolar discord, economic crisis, and sky-high inflation the world is witnessing, given an election the likes of which the United States has never experienced before, and the regional and international tensions that will shape the character of international relations in the future.

Perhaps former President Trump will benefit the most from an October surprise, and the Harris campaign is preparing for it.

Jamal Qassem is an associate professor of Middle Eastern studies and political science at Grand Valley State University, and received his PhD in political science from Texas Tech University, where he served as a teaching assistant in the political science department. He has also served as a visiting professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Beloit College.