What stage of the bull market are we currently in?

Source: Liu Jiaolian

BTC continued to decline overnight, once slipping to the 93k line, and then pulled back to around 95k in the morning.

What stage is it now?

Some people say that the bull market is over. And it is the end of a double top. The first peak will be in early 2024. The second peak will be at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. However, Jiaolian opened the weekly chart and saw that this does not look like a double top. This is clearly a step up.

The general view at present is that it is now in the middle of the bull market. We seem to be far from the tail.

Of course, the tail risk will definitely get bigger and bigger.

Some people choose to reduce their holdings by 100,000 dollars, "not eating the tail of the fish", avoiding risks, and taking the bag.

Some people like to fight the wind and waves. "The bigger the wind and waves, the more expensive the fish."

Holding u and holding coins are two different ways of thinking. One is u-based. One is the currency standard. U refers to stablecoin. If the currency is B, the currency standard is B standard, BTC standard.

When BTC is replaced by U, what is considered is the risk of selling at a loss. Even if this round of bull market rushes to the high track of the power law of $500,000, it will still return to $100,000 after a drop of 80%.

When U is replaced by BTC, what is considered is the risk of being locked in. The $100,000 at the beginning of 2025 is located in the middle track of the power law, and it will take another 3 years for the low track to run to this point. In other words, the longest time of being locked in may not exceed 3 years.

The former refers to past experience. The latter looks at the foresight of the future. However, the future is also the past.

The former hopes to wait for an opportunity to buy at a lower price.

The latter wishes not to miss the opportunity to increase the number of BTC.

The former measures the relativity of space.

The latter visually measures the relativity of time.

Jiaolian’s own view is that it is not about selling assets or taking profits, but replacing high-risk assets with low-risk assets.

Jiaolian’s risk ranking is as follows: meme > alts > stocks > USD > BTC.

Jiaolian wrote three months ago that the bull market is a good time to discover and seize the opportunity to pocket money.

Of course, the premise is that there is accumulation in the bear market.

Only with accumulation can there be profit to stop.

Without accumulation, there will be nothing to gain.

There are two ways to miss the bull market: one is not knowing that there is a bull market; the other is watching the bull market with your eyes open, but there are no chips to grab.

It is a pity not to know that there is a bull market. It is particularly frustrating to not be able to catch the bull market.

However, don’t go in the wrong direction just because you are frustrating, and don’t FOMO (fear of missing out), and replace assets from right to left, changing low-risk positions to high-risk positions.

Be conservative in a bull market. Be adventurous in a bear market. If you do the opposite, I dare not say that you will definitely lose money, but there is a high probability that you will suffer from being stuck.

Although the teaching chain writes this, it is impossible to do it.

But I still have to write it to remind myself that this time I have to do a little better than the last time. A little progress is enough.

When it comes to investment, the biggest enemy to defeat is not others, but yourself, the demon in your heart.