Why do you think an Ethereum ETF is about to be approved?

Author: Jack Inabinet, Bankless; Translator: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Bloomberg's ETF analysts suddenly and unexpectedly raised the odds of spot Ethereum ETF approval from 25% to 75%!

Key points:

• Change of decision: Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas claimed that the SEC suddenly changed its decision to reject the spot ETH ETF, causing issuers to scramble to complete their applications before the first final decision deadline on May 23.

• Political motivation: While the Biden administration has taken an aggressive anti-cryptocurrency policy stance in recent weeks, Balchunas pointed out that the increasing politicization of cryptocurrency is the driving factor behind this sudden shift.

• Market Impact: Market sentiment was decidedly negative on the chances of an Ethereum spot ETF getting approved — with just an 11% chance of approval this morning, according to Polymarket’s market implied odds — but now stands above 50% for the first time since January as the ETH/BTC ratio rebounds strongly.

Author’s Take:

Ethereum ETF approval appears inevitable within months, despite Balchunas’s suggestion that political pressure has forced the SEC to yield to its denialist stance.

ETF experts have previously hailed the lack of meaningful communication between the SEC and proposed issuers as a red flag indicating denial, but when the regulator approved a commodity futures-based Ethereum ETF product last October, the decision to approve a spot product was likely already made, solidifying Ethereum’s status as a non-security.

ETF experts have previously hailed the lack of meaningful communication between the SEC and proposed issuers as a red flag indicating denialism, but when the regulator approved a commodity futures-based Ethereum ETF product last October, the decision to approve a spot product was likely already made, solidifying Ethereum’s status as a non-security.

With experts once again confident of approval, crypto market participants agree that the Ethereum ETF is likely to be approved this Thursday.