Why the first and fourth quarters will be bullish for cryptocurrencies

As we approach the last quarter of 2024, the market is showing signs of a potential bull phase to come.

While Bitcoin and altcoins have faced significant volatility throughout the year, several long-term indicators suggest that the coming months could be a turning point for the market.

A number of factors come together to suggest a very positive outlook for cryptocurrencies.

While short-term price action is difficult to predict, I believe that Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 will be the best times to invest. If you are interested in understanding why the upcoming cycle could bring significant gains, read on as we break down the key indicators in detail.

7 Reasons Why I Think Q4/Q1 Will Be Bullish for Cryptocurrencies —

1. Cyclic Structure —

Complete Cyclic Structure

Markets move in cycles, and these cycles typically include periods of consolidation followed by explosive growth.

Historically, Bitcoin and other major assets have exhibited a repeating pattern of long periods of consolidation before breaking out to new highs.

We are currently in one such consolidation phase.

This cycle has seen fewer pauses than previous ones, as periods of consolidation occurred more frequently. This suggests that we may be building momentum for a breakout. Historical data shows that these breakouts typically occur after a consolidation period of more than 500 days. We are currently only 350 days into this phase, which means we may see a breakout in the next few weeks or so.

This consolidation is a critical period for markets to recalibrate and strengthen, often shaking off weakness before a rebound. Timing is critical, and it seems increasingly likely that this cycle will continue to rise soon, possibly as early as Q4 2024.

Note: - I write here what I see as signs of Q4-Q1 strength for cryptocurrencies. It says nothing about a short-term price downtrend; these are HTF ideas!

If this doesn’t happen, it doesn’t necessarily mean the cycle is over. Not by any means.

2. Higher Time Frame Close —

One ​​of the best signs of a potential bullish phase is to check the higher timeframe (HTF) close. Recently, Bitcoin had a very strong close on the three-month (3M) candle.

What’s significant about this close is that it broke through the low of the previous candle, but ended up closing back above. Historically, when patterns like this occur, it usually signals the start of a new trend.

Whenever Bitcoin reclaims the previous candle high or low on a longer timeframe, it generates sustained upward momentum. We just saw this happen, and it’s another sign that the market could be preparing for a strong rally next quarter.

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3. Current LTF Range —

On lower timeframes (LTF), Bitcoin’s price action has struggled to make lower lows, indicating a stabilization in the market.

This is a common phenomenon before a breakout. Recently, Bitcoin fell to $49,000. USD, but ultimately managed to reclaim the established range. This suggests that the market remains strong despite short-term volatility.

A breakout above the current range high could confirm a significant upside move, but a retest of the range low remains possible before that.

While short-term price action may cause some uncertainty, the overall structure remains bullish.

4. Seasonality

Historically, October and November have been favorable months for Bitcoin and the broader market.

In fact, several of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies in history have occurred during these months, especially after a long period of consolidation.

The few exceptions to Bitcoin seeing a negative monthly close during these months were when the asset had already far exceeded its previous high. This suggests that under normal market conditions, October and November offer a window for upward momentum.

With Bitcoin currently consolidating, bullish momentum is expected to emerge at the end of the year.

5. Halving + Election —

Two upcoming events are likely to have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market: the Bitcoin halving and the U.S. election.

The Bitcoin halving reduces the block rewards received by miners, thereby reducing the supply of Bitcoin, and historically, this has led to price increases in the following months.

Similarly, once the results are announced, the uncertainty surrounding the US election will also disappear. Elections tend to bring volatility to all financial markets, and once this uncertainty is eliminated, the market tends to resume its previous trend. I believe the end of the election cycle will be the catalyst for the next cryptocurrency bull run.

6. Altcoins and Cycles —

A cycle can be divided into two parts:

1. Bitcoin runs to range highs.

2. Bitcoin breaks through its all-time high, triggering a parabolic move in altcoins.

Altcoins typically lag Bitcoin and a Bitcoin breakout to new all-time highs will spark a rally in altcoins.

Interestingly, while Bitcoin was at range highs/ATH resistance in the last cycle, altcoins have broken out of their diagonal resistance levels, leading to their big rally.

When altcoins break out of that level, the market moves. We are now seeing a similar diagonal breakout in altcoins while Bitcoin is at resistance. But if altcoins lose this breakout, the argument doesn’t hold water.

Again, please remember that this article is not a prediction of tomorrow’s price. Altcoins may still fail to hold the 0.25 level and the diagonal breakout could see them revisit their range lows, while Bitcoin sets another low within its range.

7. Altcoin Structure

Many altcoins are showing signs of entering the late stages of a local downtrend cycle, with some of them leveling off and appearing to shift into an accumulation phase.

Assets like SUI have already begun to lead this shift. If BTC holds its range or moves higher, altcoins will follow, potentially delivering significant gains.

However, it is worth noting that if Bitcoin revisits the range lows, altcoins may reenter the third phase of their local downtrend cycle and continue to remain range-bound for a while. That being said, the structure of many altcoins suggests that we may be nearing the end of this downtrend and preparing for a more bullish phase.

I am not predicting short-term price action here.

My main plan right now is to accumulate altcoins near the range lows based on the cycle structure and range low recovery setup.

I have been buying at the April and August lows and am now closely watching for a breakout above the 0.25 level as a trigger for accumulation.

To summarize, the market is showing a host of technical and macroeconomic signals that suggest a bull run is imminent. The stage is set for a strong performance in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

While short-term volatility may still occur, long-term indicators suggest that the market is recovering. For those looking to accumulate assets, such a period will not come again, especially for altcoins.

Keep an eye on Bitcoin's price action, but remember that the most profitable opportunities often appear during periods of consolidation. Accumulating funds during market downturns can pay off handsomely as the market prepares for the next leg up.

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