Will Bitcoin continue to fall due to ETFs? How do industry insiders view the market in June?

Author: Editorial, Cointelegraph; Compiler: Songxue, Golden Finance

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a series of Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, triggering concerns about the market in the coming weeks. Speculations on how it might react.

In the hours following the announcement, Bitcoin prices surged to $49,000 before falling to more than $43,000 as of January 12 — a development that perhaps surprised few observers. However, with the Bitcoin halving set to occur in April, there is little agreement on what will happen next.

For further analysis, we asked some industry insiders for their thoughts.  

Tom Blackstone, Reporter:

As of December 31, Bitcoin price barely broke through resistance, closing at $42,265. That’s $2,265 higher than the cap I projected a few months ago, so my prediction is a little off.

History shows that the price gains in halving years are very high compared to previous years, so I expect Bitcoin to be higher by the end of the year, although June is not good for the rebound It's too early to say. By the end of the year, I expect it to be at an all-time high. I don’t think the ETF news will have much of an impact in the first two months or so after the decision is made.

CT: Where do you think the price of Bitcoin will be on June 30?

TB: I think it will be above $47,000.

Yield App Chief Investment Official Lucas Kiely:

We may see some "sell on the news" action, but only among some short-term traders. Holders are not selling – especially ahead of Bitcoin’s halving, which has been the catalyst for every major rally in the past. The number of long-term holders is about 76%, higher than at any time in history.

We will see a small pullback, but it’s nothing to write home about. It may take a while for it to cross the $50,000 threshold. But come June, the halving will be over and prices should be even higher. Of course, its magnitude will depend on many factors, not least the macroeconomic context. We also know that halvings usually take a while to affect prices, so we may need to be patient and wait for new all-time highs.

By the end of June, I expect Bitcoin to be between $50,000 and $60,000.

Christos Makridis, associate research professor at Arizona State University and founder/CEO of Dynamic AI:

bit Coin ETFs are a big step forward in digital asset prices this year (even beyond BTC). In addition to growing institutional recognition and adoption of digital assets, we are likely to see a further increase in economic and political uncertainty. Historically at least, there has been a strong negative correlation between uncertainty and the price of BTC and ETH, a correlation that is likely to be amplified in the 2024 election cycle. Current price momentum for digital assets is likely to continue, with people seeing them as a safe haven amid uncertainty and aggressive central bank and federal decisions, further driving their price appreciation.

Bitcoin price in June.  I wouldn’t be surprised if BTC breaks $50,000.

Marketing Director Ray Salmond :

Bitcoin's long-term price action may be affected by the size and consistency of ETF inflows and corresponding reporting at the end of the first quarter and the end of the second quarter.

It will be interesting to see how institutions reposition their portfolio allocations to Bitcoin and what consumer and retail products emerge in the coming year. In the short term, attention will likely turn back to Bitcoin’s April halving and its historical impact on price.

Personally, I would love to see Bitcoin consolidate in the $50,000 to $56,000 price range over the next two months or so. It would be great to finally break the $58,000 support and gain further strength ahead of the halving.

Bitcoin price in June.   Between $55,500 and $69,420, but there are too many factors that can happen that cannot be considered.

Sellix founder and CEO Daniele Servadei:

Spurred by an influx of retail investors,Bitcoin will inevitably soar past $100,000. This marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin, as it not only simplifies the investment process by eliminating the need to trade directly with cryptocurrency exchanges, but also marks a major leap in mainstream acceptance and regulatory clarity in the United States. (Ethereum, on the other hand, may not reflect Bitcoin's rise.)

Bitcoin price in June.  $140,000.

Rudy Takala, Editor:

When the ETF launched, the upper limit of the Bitcoin price range was $49,000. Once we establish a bottom behind the ETF, I think we'll see it trade in an increasingly narrowing range until it's ready to break out - which may make it prudent to short the high end of the range before that happens safer. This will be especially true if the market mania continues to shift toward Ethereum.

In 2020 - the last halving year - the price of Bitcoin increased by 500%, then significantly doubled in 2021. The same pattern this year will push prices over $200,000 by the end of the year. That seems ridiculous right now, and the difference in market cap compared to 2020 is equally ridiculous. But this year does look bullish.

Bitcoin price in June. Over $47,000.

J.W. Verret, associate professor, George Mason Law School:

In the short term, I don’t have actual usage data to work with because there aren’t many. Short-term price forecasts are simply guesses, without new information, about how many speculators will be willing to jump into the pool with me over the next six months.

In the long term,I believe the U.S. dollar has no future, artificial intelligence will prefer decentralized currencies, and remote work lends itself to cryptocurrency incentives. Bitcoin is currently the best bet for the future.

Bitcoin price in June.   If you forced me to estimate, I'd say price volatility drops during the regular sell-offs during tax season and then continues to rise past current prices and closer to $50,000.