Will Ethereum Treasury collapse?

- Currently, many Ethereum treasury companies have mNAV below 1. Is there a possibility that these companies will collapse during this bear market, leading to a stampede-like sell-off?

If there is a possibility of collapse, I think it is indeed possible, but whether it will actually happen is unknown.

What I'm more concerned about is: if this possibility does occur, what should we, as participants, do?

My approach is simple: if Ethereum falls to $2500, I will continue dollar-cost averaging. Once you understand this, you don't need to worry too much about whether it will collapse.

As I wrote in my article yesterday, I neither hate nor like these companies. Most of them (except for MicroStrategy) are probably a group of gamblers. They take investors' money, and if they lose, they are not responsible; if they make money, it's their own achievement. Therefore, I have always viewed them with a critical and cautious eye.

Under the current circumstances, I will not participate in either the index or individual companies.

Regarding the current state of the US stock market, taking the AI ​​ecosystem as its mainstay, there have always been two opposing opinions: whether it's a bubble or not.

I think we still need to look at the actual performance support and judge how long the current performance can be sustained.

Previously, I speculated that the AI ​​ecosystem bubble would likely follow a similar path: first, infrastructure stocks would surge, then application stocks would follow, until at some point it was discovered that applications couldn't realize their value, and even infrastructure was overvalued, leading to a bubble burst. However, two recent phenomena are noteworthy because they reflect a development path somewhat different from my expectations. One is that Microsoft's CEO recently stated that their stockpiled GPUs are unusable in warehouses due to insufficient power infrastructure. The other is the recent stock market crash in Duolingo. GPUs and electricity are both essential AI infrastructure. Microsoft's observation suggests that even within the infrastructure sector, bottlenecks (like power) can lead to the idleness of other infrastructure (like GPUs). I anticipate this phenomenon may extend to other sectors in the future. If this phenomenon continues, will it raise concerns about the performance of companies in the infrastructure sector (such as Nvidia)? Duolingo, an English teaching software, is considered a case study of AI application in the industry. Recently, its stock price plummeted due to some aspects of its performance falling short of expectations. This sharp drop is seen as a reflection of the underperformance of AI applications. I originally guessed that this expectation would arrive relatively late, but I didn't expect it to appear now. Whether this expectation will spread further depends on the performance of other related companies. In short, the uncertainty accumulated in this round of AI ecosystem development is increasing, so I am currently mainly observing these US stocks and basically not making any moves.