Will this round of Bitcoin peak in 2025?

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

"Will there be a sudden U-turn in China one day in the future?"

This is a question left by a reader at the end of an article.

Several years ago, I also thought that would our country suddenly make a U-turn in encryption policy in the next year?

But over the years, as I have observed more and more carefully and deeply, I think this idea was probably too naive.

We have all heard the saying: "Science has no borders." I used to extend this sentence to the field of technology and understand that technology also has no borders.

But now I think that technology has clear borders.

As far as encryption technology is concerned, some of its inherent functions (such as no permission required, anti-censorship, free global flow, etc.) are actually not suitable for a certain type of country.

In such countries, even if encryption technology can have a period of growth, it is only because its inherent functions have not yet triggered the border, and once it triggers the border, its growth process will inevitably come to an abrupt end.

Under the condition that some conditions do not change, it is wishful thinking to expect the development of encryption technology to reverse in such a country.

If we put aside national sentiment and simply look at the characteristics of encryption technology itself, I am afraid that only certain countries in the world are really the most suitable for encryption technology and encryption assets.

Because since those countries have become independent, there has always been a force that is highly vigilant against overly powerful centralized forces. It is precisely because of this force that two types of values ​​have been formed:

One is that a big government can lead the country's progress;

The other is that a small government is the fundamental to stimulate the creativity of the whole people and create a future for the country.

The mutual game of these two values ​​has jointly promoted the progress of a country.

And what encryption technology needs is the objective environment created by the second type of values.

Although the second type of values ​​does not always dominate the country's progress, it always has the opportunity to play a role for a period of time and create a relaxed and free environment during this period.

Once encryption technology encounters such an environment, it has the opportunity to grow rapidly. Once a country in such an environment also has a strong financial foundation, a superior market environment and outstanding scientific and technological talents, it will be difficult for this country not to become the global crypto capital.

In a series of information released by Trump recently, we can clearly see some of his substantial actions in crypto policy.

For example, there have been reports that he may set up a government department specifically responsible for crypto affairs.

In addition, whether it is him, his deputy, or the cabinet members who have been announced (such as the Secretary of the Treasury), they are very friendly to crypto assets.

I believe that when Trump selected these people, he may not have specifically examined their attitudes towards crypto technology and crypto assets, but according to the old saying, "Birds of a feather flock together", people with common values ​​will naturally come together. Because he has such values, he naturally chooses people with similar values.

Therefore, I still believe more and more that his cabinet will still have something to watch in terms of crypto policy in the future.

There is another thing that has nothing to do with Trump directly, but I think it is inextricably linked to his upcoming inauguration:

On November 22, Pennsylvania passed the Bitcoin Bill of Rights with a high vote, and subsequently proposed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act.

If this "Reserve Act" is passed, it means that Pennsylvania will use Bitcoin as part of its state reserves. With the precedent of Pennsylvania, I believe that more Republican-controlled states are likely to pass similar bills.

In fact, regardless of whether the federal government will include Bitcoin as a reserve, as long as a considerable number of states in the United States include Bitcoin as a reserve, it will be a great benefit to Bitcoin.

Recently, many media have said that the recent surge in Bitcoin has overdrawn the benefits that the Trump administration is about to introduce.

I don't think so. I still think the climax will be next year, and this round of Bitcoin's climax will not end in a hurry this year.