You shouldn’t be asking if the Bitcoin bull run is over. Instead, you should be asking: What season are we in?

This kind of thing has happened more than once:

In April 2013, Bitcoin fell from $260 to $70, and the media all shouted a bear market. As a result, seven months later it rose to $1,100;

In June 2019, it fell back from $14,000 to $7,000, which was also mistakenly regarded as "the end of the bull market and the beginning of the bear market". Who would have thought that it would reach $64,000 in 2021?

At the end of 2022, FTX collapsed, and Bitcoin fell to $16,000. Many people liquidated their positions and left the market. Three months later, it rose directly to $25,000;

In 2023 In the summer of 2016, some people finally waited until the 31,000 mark to exit, only to watch helplessly as it soared to 73,000 in just nine months. The real regret is often not missing out on a bear market, but mistaking a still-running rally for its end point and getting off the train prematurely. If you only have the two buttons of "bull market" and "bear market" in your mind, then every decision you make is like flipping a coin: if you guess right, you pocket the profits at a high level; if you guess wrong, you miss out on an entire cycle. But the market isn't a binary, black-and-white photograph—it's more like a palette: Besides the bright sunshine of a bull market and the storms of a bear market, there are also long, sweltering periods of sideways trading and accelerating upward rallies with virtually no pullbacks. Only by appreciating all four seasons can you avoid gambles and guess at fate at every crossroads, allowing asset allocation to adapt to the weather and adjust your sails to the wind. To put it bluntly, the traditional "bull-bear dichotomy" is actually too crude. This wasn't my first suggestion; an investment researcher named Jesse B. Mackey provided a clearer picture several years ago—expanding from the black-and-white world of bull and bear markets to a colorful four-element market: bull, bear, wolf, and eagle. This "seasonal revolution" in the investment world has only just begun. 1. From Bull-Bear to Wolf-Eagle: Returning the Market Palette to Investors In the past, most of us were accustomed to categorizing the market into two colors: an uptrend was a bull market, a downtrend was a bear market. Rising markets were described as "rosy," while falling markets were "ice and snow." However, Jesse B. Mackey proposed a more realistic depiction of the market. As if pulling out a more refined palette, he said to us: "What you see is just a corner of the black and white world. The real market is a colorful map." In addition to the classic characters of bull and bear, he added two other often overlooked yet surprisingly common protagonists: wolf and eagle markets. This isn't a play on concepts; it stems from the statistical truth he uncovered by analyzing and categorizing every daily S&P 500 chart from 1950 to 2017. Next, let's examine these four types of "market weather" one by one: 1.1 Bear Market Standard definition: A cumulative decline of more than 20% from the most recent high.

Climatic Characteristics: A sudden cold wave hits the market, like a power outage. Trading volume surges, and the VIX (Fear Index) soars.

Psychological Experience: Every green candlestick is like a bubble in a tsunami, and my heartbeat plummets along with my account equity.

1.2 Bull Market

Standard Definition: A bull market is defined as an upward trend that doesn't meet the definition of a bear market.

Historical Characteristics: An average duration of 2.7 years, with a median gain of approximately 112%.

Climatic Characteristics: A spring breeze blows, the market slowly rises along its 200-day moving average, and confidence quietly returns.

Investment Strategy: Regular investment, long-term holding, and doing nothing are the most profitable. 1.3 Wolf Market Standard Definition: A retracement of more than 10% from a high, followed by a rebound to the original level; or two declines of 10% or more, without a new high in between. Historical Occurrence: Approximately 22% of market calendars. Visual Image: The candlestick chart zigzags back and forth, blurring the sense of direction and subjecting technical analysts to repeated losses. Investment Experience: You may not feel the market is falling, but your account is constantly bleeding. Trend-based systems often fail in such markets, suffering repeated setbacks. 1.4 Eagle Market Standard Definition: A year-round gain of 30% or more, with no retracement of 10% or more. Historical Occurrence: As high as 34%, more common than a bull market. Climate Characteristics: As if carried by a balloon, prices continue to rise, but volatility is unusually calm. Typical Scenario: You hesitate, waiting for a pullback, but the market never turns back; it rises, leaving those on the sidelines.

So, when Mackey reclassified and analyzed 70 years of daily market charts, he discovered a startling fact:

Wolf markets and eagle markets combined accounted for 56% of the time, while the "bull markets" we are most familiar with only accounted for 24%; bear markets accounted for 17%, and the remaining 3% could not be classified.

What does this mean?

It means that most of the time, we are actually living in markets outside of the "bull and bear" periods, without realizing it. We wait for pullbacks in hawk markets, chase trends in wolf markets, and frequently switch positions amidst the illusion of a bull market—ultimately, we either miss out or lose all confidence. The real problem isn't that you misjudged the bull and bear markets, but that the map you're using doesn't depict the paths of wolves and eagles. So what's the logic behind this? Why has the market become like this? 2. Why do we need "Wolf-Eagle"? In a nutshell: The black-and-white lens of bull and bear markets no longer clearly captures this colorful and erratic market. 2.1 Correlation: The Whole Street Is Going the Other Way The fundamental premise of the bull-bear dichotomy is that "ups and downs rotate": when stocks fall, bonds rise, and vice versa. This is the classic logic of "negative asset correlation" and the cornerstone of old-school asset allocation. However, starting in 2022, this "law of physics" suddenly broke down, like the disappearance of gravity. According to a Bank of America global research report, the 60-day rolling correlation between the 10-year US Treasury bond and the S&P 500 turned positive more than once between 2022 and 2023, reaching a peak close to 0.6. What does this mean? You thought buying bonds at the bottom of a bear market was a safe haven, but you discovered that both stocks and bonds were in free fall. By the end of 2023, they were both soaring again. The bull-bear model is only suitable for dealing with a clear picture of "one up and one down." But now you are facing the turbulence of "both up and down," and it has failed. 2.2 Macroeconomic Policy: An Eight-Track Subway The previous super bull market (2009–2020) had a major background: global central banks collaborated in flooding the market with liquidity, lowering interest rates and boosting the market. Now, this highway has split into numerous forks—the Federal Reserve halted its rate hikes in 2023, the European Central Bank cautiously cut rates in 2024, while China, India, and Australia continue to flood the market with liquidity. The Bank for International Settlements bluntly stated in its 2025 Annual Report that diverging monetary policies have become the biggest source of disruption for cross-border capital flows [Source: BIS Annual Report 2025, Chapter III]. You're still using the logic that "global easing is a bull market, global tightening is a bear market." It's like holding tickets for two subway lines and running into a transfer station for Line 18. It's dizzying, and you might even get on the wrong train. 2.3 The bear market isn't fierce enough, but the bull market has fangs. The traditional bull-bear model also has a default setting: bear market = high volatility; bull market = low volatility. The liquidity bubble disrupted this rhythm. From 2021 to 2022, the US stock market experienced 46 trading days with intraday volatility exceeding 2%, more than double the rate during previous bull markets. By the first quarter of 2024, Bitcoin had surged 70% following the launch of the ETF, yet its 30-day volatility had fallen below 25%—a perfect example of a bull market's "low volatility, fast rise" strategy. 2.4 Four Blows: A Hit on the Bull-Bear Model Previous bull-bear models were based on clear trends, orderly fluctuations, and predictable returns. But today's market has long since derailed. The sideways trading range has become a "wolf valley": In 2023, the prices of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin repeatedly suffered losses within a narrow ±10% range. J.P. Morgan data shows that between March and July alone, there were 17 false breakouts of 1.5%, grinding trend traders into "metal shavings." Rebalancing strategies have become self-defeating: A BlackRock report shows that passive funds now account for 54% of the free float market capitalization of US stocks. These funds mechanically rebalance their positions quarterly, but in reality, they suffer huge slippage due to a liquidity shortage. At the end of 2023, a single Nasdaq weighting adjustment wiped out $18 billion in a single day. In the event-driven era, mean reversion has been shattered: a single tweet or regulatory signal is enough to cause a dramatic market shock. In June 2024, the SEC reviewed Ethereum's securities status, and a single statement caused ETH to plummet 12% intraday, only to recover half of its value two days later. Professional investors are voting with their feet: According to HFR, the AUM of global trend-following funds has shrunk by one-third since its 2015 peak, while multi-strategy and market neutral funds have bucked the trend and expanded. This suggests that the old-school "bull-bear believers" have retreated, and the market is entering an era of "wolf-hawk hunters." 2.5 Summary The bull-bear model isn't wrong; it was simply born in an older era with simpler logic: a time of single correlations, regular volatility, and synchronized policies. Today's market is like an overturned palette: diverging central bank paths, distorted liquidity, fragmented news, and the nonlinear feedback loops triggered by algorithmic trading... these candlestick charts are a vibrant spectrum of red, orange, yellow, green, cyan, blue, and violet. If you still view this market through a black-and-white filter, you're doomed to misjudge the market's direction and miss key opportunities. Embracing the "wolf" and "eagle" isn't about novelty; it's about returning to reality. The next time someone asks you, "Is the bull market over?" perhaps you should first ask, "Is it a wolf market, an eagle market, or a bear market?" Because only when you know the answer can your strategy have direction. 3. New Model × Crypto Pocket: MMI on-chain Application We've already seen that bull-bear models are insufficient, and the market requires a more detailed "climatology." But with a more accurate map, the next question is: how can we dress appropriately and strike the right rhythm in this seasonally changing on-chain environment? This is where the MMI strategy (Multi-Modal Investing) comes in. MMI is an asset allocation model based on matching market states with a portfolio of strategies, originally applied to the four-quadrant environment of traditional assets. Now, it's been moved to the blockchain. The core concept remains unchanged, but the tools have shifted from stocks, bonds, and volatility funds to stablecoins, perpetual swaps, liquidity mining, and high-beta tokens. We've broken it down into four "pockets" so you know which weapon to pull out when a market trend emerges. 3.1 Prepare the Four On-Chain Pockets 3.1.1 Bear Market Pocket: Stablecoins + On-Chain Short-Term Debt Scenario Characteristics: BTC/ETH has retreated over 20% from its peak, on-chain liquidations are frequent, and liquidity is drying up. Stablecoins are your cash reserves. Looking back at the week of the FTX debacle in 2022, USDT/USDC trading volume accounted for 81% of the entire network, 15 percentage points higher than usual (data source: Kaiko Research). That week, anyone holding a "stablecoin" could be found picking up gold. On-chain US Treasury bonds allow you to sleep soundly in the eye of the storm. Tokenized short-term debt products like OUSG, launched by Ondo Finance, move 5% of US Treasury interest on-chain, providing a remarkably quiet environment during days when BTC's annualized volatility exceeded 60%. Hedge-type "gold" tokens truly withstood the panic. For example, PAXG maintained a stable correlation with BTC between -0.3 and -0.4 during three major sell-off cycles from 2020 to 2024, making it a truly counter-cyclical on-chain asset. 3.1.2 Bull Market Pocket: Long-Term Coin Holding + Staking and Reinvestment Scenario Characteristics: BTC and ETH continue to rise, with on-chain active addresses, TVL, and stablecoin inflows booming. BTC and ETH are the most stable "double beta" in a bull market. CoinShares data shows that since 2025, Bitcoin alone has attracted $6.2 billion in net inflows from crypto funds, accounting for 54% of all inflows. The fruits of a long-term bull market continue to grow on these two giant trees. Staking is the "dividend reinvestment" of the on-chain bull market. LBTC (Lombard), weETH, and stETH not only enjoy rising prices but also enjoy continuous compounding growth. You can profit while you sleep without frequent portfolio adjustments. 3.1.3 Wolf Market Pocket: Opportunistic Arbitrage + Market Neutral Strategy + Volatility Selling Scenario Characteristics: Prices fluctuate repeatedly within a ±10% range, with frequent false breakouts and a stagnant market. Trade basis/funding arbitrage to capitalize on the ebb in volatility. In Q2 2023, the annualized basis between BTC spot and perpetual swaps reached 8-12%. Simply go long spot and short perp to earn a steady 2-3% monthly return. Uniswap v3 provides liquidity. By placing a BTC-ETH position in a narrow 10% range and locking in Delta with perpetual contracts, annualized fees can reach 25-35% (data: DeFiLlama). A wolf market isn't about betting on the direction of the market, but rather about recovering "gold in the dust." 3.1.4 Eagle Market: Concentrated Offense + Leveraged Perpetual Swaps + High-Beta Public Chains Scenario Characteristics: Volatility plummets, and prices rise along the 30-day moving average, soaring with little reversal. Leverage is the "rocket capsule" for capturing eagle markets. In the first quarter of 2025, BTC with 2x leverage saw a three-month increase of 142%, while spot BTC only saw a 70% increase during the same period. High-beta public chains are the "on-chain NVIDIA" of the new cycle. Solana is a more promising alternative after ETH. Note that in a bull market, you don't cast a net to catch fish; you choose a rocket and hold on to it.

3.2 Personal practice: three steps to put MMI into the on-chain wallet

Step 1: Put funds into four "crypto pockets"

• Bear market pocket: USDC/DAI + TBILL token + PAXG

• Bull market pocket: BTC + ETH (long holding + staking)

• Wolf market pocket: perp basis arbitrage + AMM delta neutral LP

• Eagle market pocket: BTC/ETH/SOL leveraged perpetual or 2x ETF

Each pocket holds 25%. Step 2: Set up "Autopilot Logic" Once configured, keep Bear and Bull Pockets as immobile as possible, and buy in the opposite direction when the market panics. Wolf Pockets can be executed semi-automatically: for example, choose BTC-ETH for liquidity mining on the Base Chain; for perp arbitrage, recommend BTC and ETH, focusing on low-risk products. Eagle Pockets control two things: leverage does not exceed 3x, and only select core assets with long-term storytelling, such as BTC, ETH, and SOL. Step 3: Use "scissors" to adjust your portfolio, not the "sledgehammer." The recommended range for the pocket weight is 15% to 35%. Only fine-tune by 5-10% at a time to reduce misjudgment and execution costs. This configuration is like your on-chain investment wardrobe: whether facing a raging storm, a surge of hawks, or a sudden bear wave, you always have four sets of "protective gear" suitable for the weather. The market is unpredictable, but the rhythm can be stable. MMI doesn't predict the market, but accompanies you through it. The above is just a rough outline of the operating principles. I will explain the details in detail in the "Alpha Daii" Knowledge Planet. Conclusion | Investing isn't about predicting the future, it's about being prepared for whatever the future holds. Let me conclude this discussion with a personal experience. In April of this year, when Bitcoin fell below $80,000, the market panicked. I didn't predict the bottom, nor could I guarantee an immediate rebound. But I used the $10,000 in stablecoins from my "Bear Pocket" account and opened a 3x leveraged BTC-ETH liquidity mining position. Today, it's worth $31,000, a return of over 300%. For the specific details, I wrote a practical breakdown in Alpha Daii's Knowledge Planet. If you're interested, check it out. But the point I want to make isn't "I made a profit," but rather: I didn't win this trade based on predictions, but rather on preparation. The market isn't a one-way street, but a city with four seasons. If you only think in terms of "bull markets" and "bear markets," then you're left guessing at every turn: A winning bet is called "taking the high," while a wrong one is "regret." But if you've prepared a wardrobe for all four seasons—a down jacket for the bear, a windbreaker for the wolf, running shoes for the eagle, and short-sleeved shirts for the bull—then even the most volatile market fluctuations are merely a change of seasons. The MMI's "four-pocket mindset" isn't metaphysics or a fancy strategy; it's a lifestyle. Its essence: It transforms the high-pressure decision of "should I sell now?" into the daily rhythm of "what should I wear today?" A true investment expert is never a market oracle, but rather a steward of their own emotions and positions. In the crypto world, your "pockets" might contain stablecoins, staking yield, arbitrage bots, and leveraged perpetuals; in traditional markets, it might be cash, short-term bonds, low-volatility strategies, or momentum ETFs. What you need to do is never to predict the market, but rather: define four pockets, create your own rules, and regularly fine-tune your position ratios with your "scissors." Seasons change, the sun rises, but you must ensure: an umbrella for rain, a coat for wind, an arrow for peaking, and a shield for sideways trading. The rest, leave to the market and time.