【Editor's Note】2025July18co-organized by Hongru Financial Education Foundation, International Finance Research Center of Central University of Finance and Economics and Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance Science and Technology Enterprise Greater Bay Area Alumni, and hosted by Zero One Think Tank and Web3.01 The “2025 Hongru Global Financial Governance Forum” was successfully held in Shenzhen. The theme of this forum was “Stablecoins and Reliable Asset Warrants: The Changing Global Payment and Asset Management System.” Professor Zhang Liqing, Chairman of the Hongru Financial Education Foundation and Director of the Center for International Finance at the Central University of Finance and Economics, delivered the opening speech. This article is based on the speech and has been verified by the author.
Zhang Liqing delivered a welcome speech and opening speech
Some Thoughts on Stablecoins and
RWA
Dear guests, good morning! The 2025 Hongru Global Financial Governance Forum is now underway. First, on behalf of the forum organizers, please allow me to extend a warm welcome and sincere gratitude to everyone for participating! Currently, stablecoins and Reliable Authorization Authorizations (RWAs) are hot topics, drawing significant attention from academia, industry, and regulators. One key reason for this is that over the past two years, legislation regulating stablecoins has been introduced in the European Union, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, and the United States. These bills stipulate the definition of stablecoins, the entry threshold for issuers, the currency stabilization mechanism and reserve asset maintenance, compliance requirements in the circulation process, and special regulatory rules for important stablecoins. This marks that the issuance and trading of stablecoins, which were in a state of wild growth in previous years, have entered a new stage of strict regulation. Among them, this year5month20The promulgation of Hong Kong's Stable Coin Ordinance on 5Month21Rihe
II. Limitations and main risks of stablecoins
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) specifically discussed the limitations of stablecoins in its recently released
2025Annual Report Stablecoins fail to meet the requirements to become the pillars of the monetary system in three key tests: singleness, elasticity, and integrity. Specifically, the BIS argues that fiat currencies, backed by central bank reserve assets, can be widely accepted by users at parity. Stablecoins, however, are issued by various private institutions and may not be accepted at parity. Furthermore, exchange rates often fluctuate when trading between them, fundamentally undermining the core principle of monetary unity. This is one point. Second, in the modern two-tier banking system, the central bank can provide additional liquidity to society as needed through flexible reserve requirements, while commercial banks can provide overdrafts, lines of credit, and other means to counteract potential deflation and economic recession. However, in a stablecoin scenario, any additional supply of stablecoins requires holders to pay in full upfront, which is equivalent to a strict cash-in-advance setup. This results in a highly fragile monetary and financial system that is unable to meet the needs of macroeconomic and financial regulation. Third, integrity flaws primarily refer to the design features of some stablecoins, particularly those traded through non-custodial wallets on public blockchains, which make them particularly vulnerable to being used to support financial crimes such as money laundering and terrorist financing. In short, the BIS believes that, given the above three limitations, stablecoins are destined to fail to replace fiat currencies and become the core pillar of the monetary system. Instead, "centralized" central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) may be a more worthy direction for exploration and development. Of course, given their technological advantages, if well-regulated, stablecoins should be a useful supplement to the current monetary system. As mentioned above, stablecoins offer significant advantages in improving cross-border payment efficiency. However, based on BIS and other relevant analyses, current stablecoin proposals carry at least the following risks. First, the risk of decoupling. Stablecoins rely on the credit of private institutions rather than national credit, and opaque reserve asset quality or market panic can easily lead to a decoupling of their value. The collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin UST in 2022 (failure of the collateral mechanism) and the liquidity crisis of USDT (reserve assets frozen) caused by the freezing of Argentine banks in 2024 are typical cases. Second, systemic financial risks. The issuance of stablecoins may lead to a shift in bank transactional deposits, potentially impacting banks' lending capabilities. Furthermore, the use of stablecoins will reduce banks' foreign exchange business, ultimately affecting their profitability and resilience. The issuance and trading of stablecoins may also affect the velocity of fiat currency, thereby impacting the transmission and effectiveness of the central bank's monetary policy. Third, illicit financial activities such as money laundering and terrorist financing. Data indicates that due to a lack of effective compliance and regulatory measures, stablecoins are frequently used for illicit financial activities such as money laundering and terrorist financing. Although regulators and mainstream stablecoins such as USDT and USDC have developed the technical capabilities to track and freeze these illegal activities in recent years, it is still quite difficult to fundamentally eliminate them. Fourth, network security and stablecoin theft. In February this year, due to a smart contract permission loophole, the stablecoin digital bank Infini platform was attacked by hackers, and US$49.5 million was stolen, which became a major event in the industry. Fifth, stablecoins and RWAs may become primary tools for circumventing cross-border capital controls in emerging market economies, potentially increasing the likelihood of financial crises in financially fragile countries. These risks cannot be ignored. It is worth noting that stablecoins are inherently global. If significant risks arise, they would have global spillover and contagion effects, significantly increasing the challenges facing regulation. Whether effective regulation can control these risks is key to the sustainable development of stablecoins. However, overly strict regulation could also hinder the development of this financial innovation. Striving to strike the right balance between regulation and regulation presents a challenge for regulators.
Third, the development prospects of stablecoins
In the past4-5years, the global stablecoin market has indeed seen rapid development, while before that the development of stablecoins was almost negligible. According to statistics from relevant institutions, the total value of the global stablecoin market has grown from approximately US$20 billion in 2020 to more than US$60 billion by the end of 2025. The total value of the stablecoin market is projected to reach $2.8 trillion by 2028. The application of stablecoins is also growing rapidly. By 2024, the global stablecoin on-chain transaction volume will reach 27.6 trillion US dollars, exceeding the combined annual transaction volume of Visa and Mastercard. Stablecoins' share of cross-border payments has also grown significantly, accounting for approximately 10% of global cross-border payment volume in 2024. However, with the implementation of the US Genius Act and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance, future development may slow. This is because, on the one hand, the speed and cost advantages of stablecoins in payments in the past were largely due to the lack of or lax regulation. With the continued strengthening of various regulatory measures, especially reserve asset management and supervision against money laundering and terrorist financing, the speed and cost advantages of stablecoin operations are likely to decline, and compliance costs will rise accordingly. It is speculated that after a significant increase in compliance costs, 80% of existing stablecoin issuers will exit the market. JPMorgan Chase's recent research report also mentioned that they originally expected the market value of stablecoins to reach 1 trillion US dollars or even higher by 2028, but after studying the "Genius Act", they believe that the prospects are not so optimistic, and the market value may only reach 2028. 500 billion US dollars. On the other hand, stablecoin issuers will face fierce competition in the future. Since the stablecoin business model is highly attractive to issuers, competition among them is inevitable. Stablecoins will also face competition from central bank digital currencies, third-party payment institutions, and traditional financial institutions. Some studies suggest that central bank digital currencies, third-party institutions like WeChat and Alipay, and the recently launched Cross-Border Payment Pass by the People's Bank of China are already approaching the efficiency of stablecoins in cross-border payments. Based on the above analysis, the future prospects of stablecoins remain to be seen. What is certain is that the healthy development of stablecoins in the future must be based on strict compliance supervision.
Fourth, the impact of stablecoins on the hegemony of the US dollar
According to statistics from the US Treasury Department, in November last year, the size of the US national debt exceeded
36 trillion US dollars, accounting for 36 trillion US dollars, accounting for 36 trillion US dollars, accounting for The proportion of GDP has exceeded 124%, and the annual fiscal expenditure on interest payment alone is as high as 1 trillion US dollars. Data released by the Congressional Budget Office of the United States at the beginning of June this year further showed that if the tax reform bill passed by the House of Representatives is implemented smoothly, the U.S. federal fiscal deficit will increase by 2.4 trillion U.S. dollars in the next 10 years. Faced with a massive fiscal deficit and a growing national debt, as well as the significant reduction in U.S. debt holdings by some foreign official investment institutions since the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, the U.S. government needs to work hard to provide additional funding to address its fiscal difficulties. Earlier this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson stated that the issuance of a dollar-denominated stablecoin would increase demand for U.S. Treasuries, help reduce the cost of issuing U.S. Treasuries, and thus help consolidate the dollar's hegemony in the international monetary system. He also optimistically predicted that by 2028, the market value of US dollar stablecoins will reach more than 2 trillion US dollars, an increase of 8 times than the current level. It can be argued that if the market capitalization of stablecoins indeed continues to rise significantly, as Bessant predicts, then in the short term, dollar-denominated stablecoins could provide relatively strong support for the further expansion of US Treasury bonds and strengthen the dollar's hegemony. However, in the long term, the continued expansion of US Treasury bonds will inevitably lead to market concerns about their security and a large-scale sell-off by investors in the secondary market, resulting in a significant depreciation of the US dollar. If this scenario occurs, the dollar-denominated stablecoin, as a token of the legal dollar, will also become unstable, and the support provided by the dollar-denominated stablecoin for the dollar's hegemony may quickly become counterproductive.Fifth, the impact of the development of global stablecoins and
RWAon China
Currently, cryptocurrencies and crypto assets are not legal in China. At the same time, China implements relatively strict capital controls. Therefore, it is generally believed that the direct impact of the development of global stablecoins on China is relatively limited. However, some studies suggest that 7,000-8,000 people in China may own US dollar stablecoins, potentially accounting for more than 60% of the total US dollar stablecoin supply. If this data is true, the impact of global stablecoin development on China's cross-border capital flow management and the stability of its domestic financial system will be difficult to completely ignore. Another question raised by the development of global stablecoins is whether my country should develop a RMB stablecoin. China actually began research and experimentation with digital currencies almost a decade ago, primarily promoting trials of the retail digital RMB and the "Currency Bridge" project. Following the passage of the Stablecoin Ordinance in Hong Kong, relevant parties have intensified their research on RMB stablecoins. Given that regulators are not yet prepared to accelerate capital account liberalization in the short term, the implementation of RMB stablecoins in mainland China is unlikely. However, the possibility of trials in offshore markets, namely, the issuance of offshore RMB stablecoins, cannot be ruled out. In addition to trials in offshore markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and London, trials may also be conducted in offshore markets outside of mainland China (for example, the Hainan Free Trade Port and free trade zones in Shanghai). Regulators should expedite their study of the regulatory frameworks of other countries and, in due course, facilitate the establishment of a regulatory framework for the issuance of offshore RMB stablecoins. The compliant development of stablecoins in Hong Kong will not only help Hong Kong become a global digital asset trading hub, but will also provide experience for mainland China's offshore RMB stablecoin trials.
Compared with stablecoins, there is relatively little attention and discussion in China about
Simply put, RWA uses blockchain technology to convert valuable real-world assets (such as real estate, stocks, bonds, and accounts receivable) into digital tokens, enabling these traditional assets to be traded, circulated, and managed on the blockchain. Theoretically, the implementation of the RWA project can help companies improve asset liquidity and achieve the rational and efficient allocation of resources on a global scale. It is expected to become a key form of cross-border capital flow in the digital economy era. However, due to differences in relevant laws and regulations, regulatory policies, and other aspects among countries, coupled with defects in blockchain technology, vulnerabilities in smart contracts, data credibility risks, as well as issues such as data ownership confirmation, asset value fluctuations, and insufficient market liquidity, the risks faced by the RWA project should not be underestimated. RWA initially took shape between 2017 and 2020, focusing mainly on the tokenization of real estate and artworks. In the past two years, with the launch of tokenized products by traditional financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, RWA has gradually moved from marginal innovation to mainstream vision, and its scale has also rapidly increased from US$50 billion in 2023 to US$60 billion in 2025. In May 2018, the value of RWA reached US$23 billion, becoming an important aspect of blockchain applications. Currently, regulators in various countries have begun to formulate relevant rules for RWA and establish standards for token issuance and trading to provide institutional guarantees for market development. Hong Kong, the United States, and other places have piloted allowing investors who meet certain thresholds to participate in RWAs through compliant platforms, such as investing in government bonds and real estate through compliant stablecoins and security tokens. Because crypto asset trading is not yet legal in China and there are restrictions on cross-border capital flows, mainland my country's RWA pilot programs are limited to digitizing assets through consortium chains (such as Ant Chain), with tokens existing in the form of internal equity certificates. Through collaboration with Ant Digital, a handful of projects, such as GCL Energy's photovoltaic assets and Longsun Group's charging piles, have successfully launched and raised funds in the Hong Kong market. Judging from the trend, RWAs should become a channel for Chinese companies to utilize foreign capital and conduct global asset allocation. Of course, this requires regulators to appropriately accelerate the formulation of regulations related to cryptoasset trading, continue to expand institutional opening-up, and ensure that any pilot programs and their promotion are carried out in compliance with regulations and with manageable risks. This concludes my speech. Thank you everyone.Explore how Telcoin navigated through a significant security exploit, restoring user balances and witnessing a remarkable surge in deposits. This article delves into the technical aspects of the breach, Telcoin’s effective response, and the implications for the future of cryptocurrency security.
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