Polymarket

Prediction market heavyweight Kalshi is pushing deeper into the heart of U.S. politics, announcing plans to open a Washington, D.C. office and recruit seasoned policy insiders from both sides of the aisle.

Major League Soccer has signed a multi-year partnership with Polymarket, making it the league’s exclusive prediction market partner across MLS, the All-Star Game, MLS Cup and Leagues Cup in the U.S. The deal will bring real-time prediction data into MLS digital platforms to boost fan engagement, with safeguards in place to protect match integrity.

Hungary and Portugal block the crypto prediction market as regulators across Europe remain split on whether Polymarket belongs under financial rules or gambling law.

Portugal’s gambling regulator ordered Polymarket to stop operating in the country within 48 hours, saying political betting is illegal and the platform is unlicensed. The move came after over €103 million was wagered on the recent presidential election, raising concerns about possible use of non-public information.

Massive pre-announcement wagers on Nicolás Maduro’s arrest fuel debate over transparency and regulation in decentralized prediction markets.

Authorities classify event-trading platforms as unlicensed gambling, reflecting a growing international regulatory trend.

The state’s cease-and-desist order challenges blockchain-based platforms

Polymarket refused to pay out over $10.5 million in bets after the U.S. captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, saying the operation did not meet their definition of an invasion. Traders are angry, arguing the action clearly counted as an invasion, while concerns have also been raised about possible insider trading on the platform.

A small group of newly created Polymarket wallets made over $630,000 by betting on the removal of Venezuela’s president shortly before a surprise US military operation confirmed the outcome. The timing raised insider trading concerns and prompted US lawmakers to move towards banning government officials from trading on prediction markets.

Kalshi has overtaken Polymarket to become the world’s largest prediction market by trading volume, setting a new industry record after processing $2.3 billion in weekly trades.