Incentive-Driven DeFi Models Predicted to Disappear by 2026

According to Odaily, Eli5DeFi has expressed on the X platform that incentive-driven DeFi models are expected to vanish by 2026. The decline in user retention for DeFi protocols occurs when incentives end, as risk-adjusted returns revert to actual levels. The growth in total value locked (TVL) during the incentive phase often reflects subsidized participation rather than sustained demand or fee income. Eli5DeFi outlines three stages in the 'rented liquidity' model: the incentive phase attracts funds through high emissions compensating for risk; the normalization phase sees reduced incentives and real returns; and the exit phase involves funds recalculating costs and withdrawing as returns normalize. The collapse in retention rates is attributed to incentives temporarily masking structural weaknesses, including subsidized impermanent loss risks, marketing expenses rather than income, highly internalized demand, and high friction costs. Eli5DeFi believes that retention rates can only improve if the economic model remains effective after incentives normalize. Protocols must address impermanent loss and principal risk, anchor returns to real demand rather than token inflation, and expand ecosystems to increase revenue sources. Future DeFi should be evaluated based on sustainable income, capital efficiency, and risk-adjusted returns.